Do you feel the Bear market is starting

[Lawrencewendall]

Meh. I ran the numbers in PC and even in a -75% drop, I'm still ok.

[Qs Laptop]

Quote:

Originally Posted by USGrant1962 Unlikely. Bear markets are usually associated with recessions and I don't see one starting this year. Perhaps if the yield curve continues to flatten we might see a recession in late 2019. Further, while stock valuations are high so is earnings growth. S&P 500 earnings grew 16% in 2017 and appear to be heading for +18% in 2018 (maybe more as the TCJA works through the system). I think we are back to more normal volatility after an unusually quite period, so perceptions of the stock market may be distorted by that. Regardless of this speculation, my AA is what it is and I'm not changing it. WHEN we get a bear I'll rebalance into stocks.

^^ THIS ^^

Tax reform with lower corporate rates means more earnings. Earnings drive the stock market. Part of the rising stock market in the last half of 2017 was in anticipation of future earnings being higher. Still, there are more gains out there to be had. As long as there isn't some political upheaval I think we are safe for the foreseeable future.

As USGrant1962 said, keep an eye on the yield curve.

[Lukeee]

One look at this chart and you might be tempted to ‘cash out for a couple years’ - MarketWatch
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...man-2018-09-06

[Lawrencewendall]

I'm kind of hoping it does. I have some PM miner stock that tanked in 2011 which should come back in a bear market and been eyeballing a dividend-paying REIT that I would like to pick up at a discount.

[Breedlove]

I don't know , but DW is again getting ready for retirement so after telling this to our Fido rep she suggested we transfer her 401 K to cash when the market hit 26000 . She told us she thinks that we are coming into the selling period and wanted DW to retire at the top of her 401K . So now we are waiting between now and March for a 10% to 20% drop ., When this happens we buy into a managed account. WHO KNOWS

[street]

That graph is very informative a great snap shot for the past. Thanks

[JDARNELL]

Well we have some things going on.

1. SCOTUS confirmation hearings.
2. Mid-term election.
3. End of summer season.
4. Constant barrage of "breaking news, "Smoking Gun" etc. aka Noise.
5. Trade talks, not trade talks, etc

I think rates are already baked into the market +- .25% so no major real change.

Not expecting much the next 6 months either way other than chest thumping and positioning from both sides of the aisle.

When I see the yield curve invert and the manufactures management confidence (?) dip below .45 I will take a look.


JDARNELL

[GravitySucks]

We'll, if you got out when this thread started you would have missed out on about a 10% bump in the S&P500.....
Sticking with my 60/40

[OldShooter]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukeee One look at this chart and you might be tempted to ‘cash out for a couple years’ - MarketWatch

The only think I can conclude from that chart is that corrections occur irregularly, and I already knew that.

[jazz4cash]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukeee One look at this chart and you might be tempted to ‘cash out for a couple years’ - MarketWatch https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...man-2018-09-06

My reaction was the opposite.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukeee One look at this chart and you might be tempted to ‘cash out for a couple years’ - MarketWatch https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...man-2018-09-06

A few posts here with similar feelings...
A 10% rise in the market ago.

Yes, a bear will come. Now? 5% higher, 10% higher, 20% higher? And then when do you get back in? Down 20%? 1991 went down 19.9%. So would you still be waiting to get back in?

Pick an AA you can live with and, well, live with it.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukeee One look at this chart and you might be tempted to ‘cash out for a couple years’ - MarketWatch https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...man-2018-09-06

The only problem I have with this graph is that it only tells you when the market stops going down, it doesn't show you how many additional years it takes to recover from the drops.

Otherwise very informative graphic.

But for folks who say - oh the 2008/2009 bear market only lasted 1.3 years, or whatever, are missing that it took 4.5 years total to get back. 1.3 years dropping, 3.2 years regaining the prior peak (total return, VTSMX). 2000-2002 bear market recovery took even longer 7 years - 2.1 to drop, then 4.9 to recover. If you go by the index alone, not counting dividends, it take a year or more longer.

[mountainsoft]

While it's exciting to watch my IRA grow, I know a downturn is coming at some point. If it has to happen, I wish it would happen now so it has time to recover before we retire in five years. I think it would be a little harder to accept if it tanks just as we reach retirement. A market drop now would also give me more buying power until we reach our retirement date.

[razztazz]

I am 100% where I want to be including 100Gs off-the-books, strictly-for-emergencies money. I could step aside for a period of time with no problem but I am afraid of "losing out" on near term gains. But something tells me that kind of thinking is a sign of greed. And not the good kind. The kind that makes you say: D'OH! at some point.

But for now I'm just gonna sit on it.

[Lukeee]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 The only problem I have with this graph is that it only tells you when the market stops going down, it doesn't show you how many additional years it takes to recover from the drops. Otherwise very informative graphic. But for folks who say - oh the 2008/2009 bear market only lasted 1.3 years, or whatever, are missing that it took 4.5 years total to get back. 1.3 years dropping, 3.2 years regaining the prior peak (total return, VTSMX). 2000-2002 bear market recovery took even longer 7 years - 2.1 to drop, then 4.9 to recover. If you go by the index alone, not counting dividends, it take a year or more longer.

That’s a very good point. It’s not a big issue if retirement is far away and you don’t need to touch the investments for the 5-7 years. It’s a different story if you need to dip into the funds nearer term and you don’t have a buffer for loss. The eye opener for me was seeing the recessions relative to market performance.

[COcheesehead]

Individual results may vary....

I tracked my portfolio and from 2008/2009, I was back to even by mid 2010 and almost double my original value by 2013. I tax loss harvested, reinvested/rebalanced. I also was not 100% equities so I didn’t take the full hit of the drop. At the time there was lots and lots of negative news. People talked about the lost decade a lot. Scary times, but you know they ended.

[DrRoy]

Quote:

Yes, a bear will come. Now? 5% higher, 10% higher, 20% higher? And then when do you get back in? Down 20%? 1991 went down 19.9%. So would you still be waiting to get back in? Pick an AA you can live with and, well, live with it.

+1

[copyright1997reloaded]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Breedlove I don't know , but DW is again getting ready for retirement so after telling this to our Fido rep she suggested we transfer her 401 K to cash when the market hit 26000 . She told us she thinks that we are coming into the selling period and wanted DW to retire at the top of her 401K . So now we are waiting between now and March for a 10% to 20% drop ., When this happens we buy into a managed account. WHO KNOWS

l had to read this multiple times to have it sink in. Did I read that correctly, your Fido rep suggested your spouse go ALL cash when the dow hit 26000? Well, unless you (collectively) had too much equity exposure (which means you need to know what your equity exposure is and what is good for your situation in terms of growth, income, and ability to sleep at night), I would FIRE THE FIDO REP.

This is not Las Vegas with a (less than zero sum) game where you should simply cash out if you had a run at the table.

[VanWinkle]

Quote:

Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded l had to read this multiple times to have it sink in. Did I read that correctly, your Fido rep suggested your spouse go ALL cash when the dow hit 26000? Well, unless you (collectively) had too much equity exposure (which means you need to know what your equity exposure is and what is good for your situation in terms of growth, income, and ability to sleep at night), I would FIRE THE FIDO REP. This is not Las Vegas with a (less than zero sum) game where you should simply cash out if you had a run at the table.

+1

Going to cash is the sign of someone trying to be a fortune teller!!
The only time it would be good is if you have enough and never plan to get back into the market.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead A few posts here with similar feelings... A 10% rise in the market ago. Yes, a bear will come. Now? 5% higher, 10% higher, 20% higher? And then when do you get back in? Down 20%? 1991 went down 19.9%. So would you still be waiting to get back in? Pick an AA you can live with and, well, live with it.

This is basically what keeps us in. I learned during the 80s and 90s how impossible it was to time. I was always missing the drop, or getting in way after a rise. I was pretty good with individual tech stocks, but hopeless with respect to market averages.

Fortunately before retiring I learned about asset allocation and rebalancing as an alternative to market timing and not having to try to guess the market movements anymore. This served us very well during the rollercoaster 2000s.