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Do you feel the Bear market is starting
Old 04-25-2018, 08:10 PM   #1
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Do you feel the Bear market is starting

It might be a stupid question because I'm not sure with the struggle in the markets if it has been classified as a bear market yet or not?
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Old 04-25-2018, 08:18 PM   #2
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I'm not even sure we are in correction territory (-10%)

Got a long way to go to see the Bear (-20%)
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Old 04-25-2018, 08:25 PM   #3
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Scrapr >>> ya that is true. As far as correction mode we most likely seen that from the high in first part of the year (26600+) to the present markets numbers.
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Old 04-25-2018, 08:32 PM   #4
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It might be a stupid question because I'm not sure with the struggle in the markets if it has been classified as a bear market yet or not?
What do you mean by "struggle in the markets"?

The total U.S. stock market has returned +13.8% in the 12 months ended March 31, 2018, and has returned an annualized +10.2% over the previous 3 years. It seems to me that the stock market has been doing well.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/fun...ect=true#tab=1
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Old 04-25-2018, 08:44 PM   #5
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Year to date stock market returns are less than 1% down. .44 for Vanguard Total stock market and .24 for All world less US. That is hardly even a blip on the horizon. We may be in the beginning of a bear market, or not. But if this makes you nervous, reduce your stock exposure to where you can trust yourself to sleep and not sell.
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Old 04-25-2018, 08:54 PM   #6
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NO it doesn't make me nervous one bit. I've road out many storms since the late 70's.

Struggle might not be the right word so I will describe it as an up and down times right now.

I also agree markets aren't bad we all have made a lot of money but the markets feel at an uneasy time.

From first of year it has held it own but since the high of the year is a different story. Not a big deal at all just wondering if you feel a bear has started?
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Old 04-25-2018, 09:23 PM   #7
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Yes, I FEEL it in my bones!

But, I've learned that FEELINGS aren't a good way to manage your finances.

I like to think I'm prepared for the Bear, but haven't gone thru one retired.

Theoretically, I won't be surprised to see a 50% market decline. How I'd hold up to losing 25% of my portfolio when no longer in accumulation phase, we'll just have to wait and see.
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Old 04-25-2018, 09:46 PM   #8
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At -30% I have serious six figures going into equities. Is it a bear market today? Let the chattering and typing monkeys decide. I don't know and I don't care.
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Old 04-25-2018, 10:02 PM   #9
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Struggle might not be the right word so I will describe it as an up and down times right now.
When has the market not been up and down? I think you need to stop getting caught up in the media hyperbole and fear mongering and think for yourself.
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Old 04-26-2018, 05:01 AM   #10
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It might be a stupid question because I'm not sure with the struggle in the markets if it has been classified as a bear market yet or not?
Not.
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Old 04-26-2018, 05:42 AM   #11
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NO it doesn't make me nervous one bit. I've road out many storms since the late 70's.

Struggle might not be the right word so I will describe it as an up and down times right now.

I also agree markets aren't bad we all have made a lot of money but the markets feel at an uneasy time.

From first of year it has held it own but since the high of the year is a different story. Not a big deal at all just wondering if you feel a bear has started?
You will be fine then street, experience is the best teacher and you have experience.

Best to you,

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Old 04-26-2018, 05:51 AM   #12
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Reverse QE and rising rates are going to really pressure this market. Add to that trade wars and the constant tweet storms and I think this market at best goes sideways to lower.
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Old 04-26-2018, 06:10 AM   #13
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There is a bear coming. I guarantee it. I just can’t tell you when. We are in the second longest period of time without a recession. So odds are it will be sooner rather than later.
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Old 04-26-2018, 06:33 AM   #14
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^ Exactly. It might be in the early stages now and it doesn't bother me. Things get cheap it is always a win win in a way.
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Old 04-26-2018, 06:40 AM   #15
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A bear market doesn't really bother me. If it comes this year , it comes, if it doesn't then it doesn't. How can I be so easy going about it? Because after 2008-2009 happened I changed my AA to suit my mood about equities. I still care but I am not hanging on the edge of my seat to see what it does.

Besides all that, there is nothing anyone can do about the direction of the stock market, but we each individually can do a lot about what we invest in.

But as to the OP question, a bear market is defined as a drop of 20% or greater from the market highs. We are not even close to that yet. I think the Dow is down close to 10%, and the SP500 is currently 8.3% off recent highs. But all three major indexes have already reached correction territory this year, a drop of 10% from recent highs.
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Old 04-26-2018, 07:21 AM   #16
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Unlikely. Bear markets are usually associated with recessions and I don't see one starting this year. Perhaps if the yield curve continues to flatten we might see a recession in late 2019.

Further, while stock valuations are high so is earnings growth. S&P 500 earnings grew 16% in 2017 and appear to be heading for +18% in 2018 (maybe more as the TCJA works through the system).

I think we are back to more normal volatility after an unusually quite period, so perceptions of the stock market may be distorted by that.

Regardless of this speculation, my AA is what it is and I'm not changing it. WHEN we get a bear I'll rebalance into stocks.
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Old 04-26-2018, 07:26 AM   #17
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OP, I will give you my honest thoughts about this current market. I will give you my guess. I do not think we will see a bear market this year. Why? Because usually the Nasdaq goes down more than the SP500 and the Dow. We have not seen that. What we have seen is all three indexes reach correction territory with the Dow going down the most.

My best guess is when the Nasdaq starts tanking, then a bear market enters into the conversation.
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Old 04-26-2018, 08:16 AM   #18
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Unlikely. Bear markets are usually associated with recessions and I don't see one starting this year. Perhaps if the yield curve continues to flatten we might see a recession in late 2019.

Further, while stock valuations are high so is earnings growth. S&P 500 earnings grew 16% in 2017 and appear to be heading for +18% in 2018 (maybe more as the TCJA works through the system).

I think we are back to more normal volatility after an unusually quite period, so perceptions of the stock market may be distorted by that.

Regardless of this speculation, my AA is what it is and I'm not changing it. WHEN we get a bear I'll rebalance into stocks.
Agree, especially with your statement I bold and italicized.
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Do you feel the Bear market is starting?
Old 04-26-2018, 10:22 AM   #19
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Do you feel the Bear market is starting?

I do not have the slightest clue.

However, I have everything lined up in case it is, and if the bear market descends upon us this year I will be fine. Of course if the bull market continues, I'll be "finer".

I wonder if subconsciously I expect a huge bear market soon, because my spending seems to have dropped without even trying or thinking about it. So far this year I am on course for my total spending to be 62% of normal. I need to Blow that Dough! But haven't been.

Meanwhile, life is an amazing adventure and I never know what to expect. So, pass the popcorn - - I'm watching from the sidelines.
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Old 04-26-2018, 10:38 AM   #20
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I agree the market isn't doing much lately, it's slightly up, then slightly down over the past month or two and we've become used to seeing it continually go up. Personally, I can't wait for the bear market (but not a recession), it's long overdue and I have some dry powder waiting for it. Come on bear market! ok even a correction.
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