chinaco
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2007
- Messages
- 5,072
Elaboration based on Ha's question:
This is a little different than timing the market. I am not referring to attempting to judge market movements as a strategy for gain (eg. long, short, puts, calls, etc) short term or normal business cycle. Rather, exiting the market because you think there is a fundamental problem. For example the protractive bear on the Nikkei 225 average hit its all-time high on December 29, 1989 when it reached an intra-day high of 38,957.44 before closing at 38,915.87. It currently stands at 17,399.58
This would have destroyed your porfolio in two ways. Once by cutting in half over 3 years and essentially going sideways for another 7 years, then down further and bottoming out in about 2003 at about 1/7th of its high. If you at least got out after the 3 year period and invested elsewhere, you would have regained some of the losses. For example, the S&P 500 would have gained substantially over that period of time.
Under what conditions would you exit the market to cash? Do you have a firm strategy/approach (e.g., trigger, threshold, etc)? Or would you just play it by ear? Or do you intend to always sit tight?
Same question about returning to the market (or another market). Do you have some sort of rules? or Just play it by ear?
This is a little different than timing the market. I am not referring to attempting to judge market movements as a strategy for gain (eg. long, short, puts, calls, etc) short term or normal business cycle. Rather, exiting the market because you think there is a fundamental problem. For example the protractive bear on the Nikkei 225 average hit its all-time high on December 29, 1989 when it reached an intra-day high of 38,957.44 before closing at 38,915.87. It currently stands at 17,399.58
This would have destroyed your porfolio in two ways. Once by cutting in half over 3 years and essentially going sideways for another 7 years, then down further and bottoming out in about 2003 at about 1/7th of its high. If you at least got out after the 3 year period and invested elsewhere, you would have regained some of the losses. For example, the S&P 500 would have gained substantially over that period of time.
Under what conditions would you exit the market to cash? Do you have a firm strategy/approach (e.g., trigger, threshold, etc)? Or would you just play it by ear? Or do you intend to always sit tight?
Same question about returning to the market (or another market). Do you have some sort of rules? or Just play it by ear?