Does anyone feel the Recovery?

[Moemg]

We are in the middle of tourist season so the stores and restaurants are packed . I've noticed more and more of the new Lexus SUVs around . Real Estate is picking up slightly in the under $250 ,000 range but otherwise real estate is still not moving .

 

[Gone4Good]

Right, but when it lags longer than usual (the GDP started turning positive again what, nine months or so ago?), at some point people start to wonder if "this time it's different" and assume the jobs don't come back. And if that impacts their consumer behavior it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This is difficult to judge. Unemployment isn't getting worse. So there isn't new downward pressure on spending from the recently unemployed. It's possible the currently unemployed can spend less as benefits run out or they get discouraged about ever finding work. It's unclear if those who have jobs will spend less because of high unemployment as long as unemployment isn't getting worse. Certainly high unemployment will keep wage increases down, so income growth won't add to recovery's thrust. But this all sounds more like muddling along than turning downward, even if we're stuck at 10% for a while.

The risk here, it seems, is that the recovery is so fragile in this state that it won't take much to knock the economy on its back.

 

[73ss454]

Last year I went back to work PT but this time selling boats in Fla.. At the place where I work they had the best year ever last year. It's been very busy and we continue to sell boats at a record pace. Maybe it's because a lot of other boat dealers went belly up, I don't know but I don't see any recession in the boat business. We also sell a lot of expensive boats and we can't get enough of them.

I actually spend part of my day calling prior boat buyers asking if they'd like to sell their boats so we can take them on consignment.

 

[Bestwifeever]

Anecdotally I know several people who have gotten jobs since the first of the year, including a 64-yr.-old friend, who hoped but never expected to get a job.

Remember when the stories were all about how the boomers would never be able to retire because the numbers of younger workers were so much smaller and there wouldn't be replacement for us? Maybe today's unemployment is really the number of jobs shrinking to fit the future work force.

 

[audreyh1]

Last year I went back to work PT but this time selling boats in Fla.. At the place where I work they had the best year ever last year. It's been very busy and we continue to sell boats at a record pace. Maybe it's because a lot of other boat dealers went belly up, I don't know but I don't see any recession in the boat business. We also sell a lot of expensive boats and we can't get enough of them.

I actually spend part of my day calling prior boat buyers asking if they'd like to sell their boats so we can take them on consignment.

That's interesting. Makes me think of the RV industry.

So many RV manufacturers have been wiped out over the past 3 years that the few survivors are booming.

Audrey

 

[Gone4Good]

Anecdotally I know several people who have gotten jobs since the first of the year.

In finance in NY, which got decimated, I don't know anyone who's out of work.

Lots of new start-ups run by heavy hitters who don't like their pay making front page news. And even the big, bad, bankrupt, but bailed out basket-cases are hiring again.

 

[Dawg52]

What I saw and what I see:

In 2008 and 2009 my wife and I would go out to dinner on Friday and Saturday evenings (4-7 pm timeframe) and walk in and get seated right away. Might be 30-50% capacity at an applebees, O Charley's or Outback.

In late 2009 and 2010 we now wait at the bar for 30 minutes before being seated in similar time slots

In my area, I never did see much of a drop off at places like Outback. I would ask the medtender if he had noticed much of a drop off(2008-09) and he would say 'maybe a little'. Last week when I was there, pretty much packed. I don't go to malls unless I have to so can't really say how they are doing.

 

[Zero]

Well, I'm pleasantly surprised to see that their are many folks seeing the recovery taking place. I suspect it all depends on location but at least somebody's doing well.

Time to go all in?

 

[NW-Bound]

I feel the recovery right here. Our members are buying new cars and RVs.

I had to decline work that was offered to me. How can I call it part-time work if I am already at 40 hrs/week? How am I going to find time for RV'ing? And for house maintenance?

 

[travelover]

Yesterday I stopped at Home Depot on the way to the dog park to use the facilities. I got asked if I needed help by about 3 or 4 people on the way in and 3 on the way out. Usually in the middle of the day most customers are contractors and retirees - both were in short supply.

 

[JPatrick]

Well, I'm pleasantly surprised to see that their are many folks seeing the recovery taking place. I suspect it all depends on location but at least somebody's doing well.

Time to go all in?

All in?
Well looking at the FIDO sector funds I see Air Transportation, Banking, Leisure, Retailing, and Housing all kicking the indexes butts year to date.

Maybe so....

 

[NW-Bound]

I do not contradict people who see empty stores, etc..., although I have not been to a shopping mall. Seriously, I believe the retail business is still lousy. Hopefully, the service sectors will pick up after the manufacturing sectors, which have seen some recoveries. It would mean a more meaningful and healthier economy than one based on pure consumption.

Just being hopeful here...

 

[traineeinvestor]

The recession has hit different parts of the world very differently. The US, Western Europe and a few other places have been hit hard with significant job losses. Other countries have recovered much quicker - as examples - Australia and New Zealand largely due to commodity based exports, China due to domestic growth and stimulus measures and Hong Kong largely due to the China factor. It's also interesting to note that in all four of the markets mentiones, residential property prices did not dip very far either in value terms or for very long and started rising again last year. In both China and Hong Kong the governements have taken measures to prevent the property market from becoming over heated.

In terms anecdotal evidence of recovery, my own indicators are:

1. booking lunches with business clients: at the low point, I could get same day bookings at just about any place I wished and the clients would usually be available and not cancel at the last minute. Things are now back to normal and it is usually necessary to book a week or so in advance for my preferred venues and the the frequency of last minute cancellations due to being out of town on business has gone up

2. taxi queues: at the low point, the taxi queue in the evening would have 2-3 people in it. Things are now back to normal with 20-30 not being uncommon

3. retail sales: retailers are obviously doing better. The disclounting seen at the end of 2008 and early 2009 is ancient history. More new shops are being opened

The unemployment rate is officially falling and will almost certainly drop below 5% later this year.

 

[NW-Bound]

Yes, countries like Australia and Singapore have been kicking @ss. Guess who owns stocks there? The Australian central bank has been raising interest rates like clockwork!

 

[REWahoo]

Yes, countries like Australia and Singapore have been kicking @ss. Guess who owns stocks there?

Australians and Singaporeans?

 

[NW-Bound]

YES! And we can all join them. Just a click on your mouse, right here!

 

[audreyh1]

The unemployment rate is officially falling and will almost certainly drop below 5% later this year.

Edited to add: NOTE - traineeinvestor was talking about the unemployment rate in Hong Kong. The reference I posted below about the US unemployment rate is still worth reading.

It the unemployment rate gets below 9% by the end of this year we'll be doing about as well as I can hope for. Unemployment rates just don't drop that fast, and especially not now after such a deep recession.

The real problem is that the rate of decline in joblessness slows during the rest of the economic expansion. The annual post-war pace of decline in unemployment during these periods has been reasonably uniform, the median being 0.5 percent a year.

If that pattern persists, the U.S. economy needs to keep expanding without interruption until 2020 for unemployment to fall to its pre-recession low of 4.4 percent. Should the next recession arrive earlier, as we suspect, it will take much longer. The implications constitute nothing short of a wake-up call for policy makers who promise to get job growth back on track.

Analysis: Good News On Jobs, But Will It Last? : NPR

Those years of 5% and lower unemployment rates are long gone - we might not see unemployment rates that low for decades.

Audrey

 

[FUEGO]

Well, I'm pleasantly surprised to see that their are many folks seeing the recovery taking place. I suspect it all depends on location but at least somebody's doing well.

Time to go all in?

You missed it. March 2009 was the time to go all in.

 

[FUEGO]

Yes, retail seems to be slowing down again. I was at Banana Republic yesterday and it was just me and 4 sales associates. And that was during a well publicized 4-hour sales event!

Folks aren't paying $85 for a t-shirt at banana republic. They're paying $9 for a t-shirt at Target or Walmart.

 

[freebird5825]

YES! And we can all join them. Just a click on your mouse, right here!

Where?

 

[traineeinvestor]

You have some great anecdotal evidence posted showing recovery. But to this conjecture I have to say you are way off base.

It the unemployment rate gets below 9% by the end of this year we'll be doing about as well as I can hope for. Unemployment rates just don't drop that fast, and especially not now after such a deep recession.


Those years of 5% and lower unemployment rates are long gone - we might not see unemployment rates that low for decades.

Audrey

Audrey - I was referring to the unemployment rate here in Hong Kong. Sadly, I agree with you on the situation in the US.

Cheers
traineeinvestor

 

[audreyh1]

Audrey - I was referring to the unemployment rate here in Hong Kong. Sadly, I agree with you on the situation in the US.

Cheers
traineeinvestor

Oops! I had no idea you were talking about Hong Kong! Totally different story for Asia/Pacific (ex Japan).

Audrey

 

[RonBoyd]

Those years of 5% and lower unemployment rates are long gone - we might not see unemployment rates that low for decades.

If ever.

 

[traineeinvestor]

Some more anecdotal evidence of Asian recovery taken from today's local newspaper:

China Airlines is adding one additional cabin crew to flights between Taiwan and the PRC - just to cater for the increased demand for in flight shopping on a 1.5 hour flight. In flight sales went up 20% after they did this

Spring Airlines (a PRC budget carrier) is consdering offering in flight real estate sales (despite some legal issues and need for staff training)

Cathay Pacific, China Airlines and Singapore Airlines are considering offering a home delivery service for in flight shoppers

 

[Gone4Good]

Those years of 5% and lower unemployment rates are long gone - we might not see unemployment rates that low for decades.

Audrey

Yup. Even with the roaring boom in the 80's it took about six years to get back to full employment (5%) from ~10%