I've struggled with this for a long time. Total information overload. But I think this is the plan I am going to implement...and would appreciate any comments or feedback. About me:
48 years old
Single
Total investable assets: $1550000
Partially retired (making about 25-30k/yr working **very** part-time as a consultant)
I would like to think that I could completely hang 'em up.
Here is the proposed portfolio:
View attachment allocationsummary.xls
I would like to take 4% out annually - probably using the 95% rule. I also believe in applying some sort of valuation measure to the percentage allocated to the equity portion of the portfolio. So I think when the annual rebalancing comes up I will adjust the stock percentage based on Robert Shillers PE10 ratio:
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data
And apply percentages somewhat along this line:
Stock % P/E10
25% >30
30% 27-29
35% 25-27
40% 23-25
45% 21-23
50% 19-21
55% 17-19
60% 15-17
65% 13-15
70% 11-13
75% 9-11
80% <9
As a side note, I included the Hussman Total Return (HSTRX) in my fixed income/bond portion of the portfolio. I realize that this is not a true bond fund - he has the ability to move durations and add exposure to precious metals, foreign currencies and REITS. But I like the idea that since my portfolio does not include explicit allocations to some of these assets that maybe when the valuations are correct I may have some exposure.
Does this all make sense? Or have I just completely over analyzed the whole thing?
Thanks for any comments you may have...
48 years old
Single
Total investable assets: $1550000
Partially retired (making about 25-30k/yr working **very** part-time as a consultant)
I would like to think that I could completely hang 'em up.
Here is the proposed portfolio:
View attachment allocationsummary.xls
I would like to take 4% out annually - probably using the 95% rule. I also believe in applying some sort of valuation measure to the percentage allocated to the equity portion of the portfolio. So I think when the annual rebalancing comes up I will adjust the stock percentage based on Robert Shillers PE10 ratio:
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data
And apply percentages somewhat along this line:
Stock % P/E10
25% >30
30% 27-29
35% 25-27
40% 23-25
45% 21-23
50% 19-21
55% 17-19
60% 15-17
65% 13-15
70% 11-13
75% 9-11
80% <9
As a side note, I included the Hussman Total Return (HSTRX) in my fixed income/bond portion of the portfolio. I realize that this is not a true bond fund - he has the ability to move durations and add exposure to precious metals, foreign currencies and REITS. But I like the idea that since my portfolio does not include explicit allocations to some of these assets that maybe when the valuations are correct I may have some exposure.
Does this all make sense? Or have I just completely over analyzed the whole thing?
Thanks for any comments you may have...