Double check my SS benefit at 70?

[fh2000]

I am using the Quick Calculator Benefit Estimates from SS site to estimate what I would get at 70:
Estimated Social Security Benefit

I am 59 now. Plan to retire this year, though this is my 2nd OMY already and not exactly early retirement anymore. I have total 28 years of SS contribution (was a poor foreign student). First 9 years are below SS limit of those years. Later 19 years are at SS limit (2014 limit is $117,000 for example).

I put $0 for 2015 and beyond. I am getting $36K annual benefit at age 70 if stop work at 59 now. If I use another SS Retirement Estimator: Retirement Estimator, I would get more, so I do not use that number.

I have no reference point; no other friends in my similar situation. Maybe some of the board members are similar to mine, and can double check yours, to see if the $36K is in the ballpark?

 

[nate2953]

A max earnings situation for 35 years would result in approx 3500/mo at age 70. It is very reasonable with your situation that 3k/mo is accurate. http://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/examplemax.html


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

 

[Spanky]

my numbers are pretty much the same between the two estimates. I think the difference is attributed to the rough estimates of the first calculator.

 

[bmcgonig]

My age, years under and years over the limit are very similar to yours. I get approx $38k in the SS estimate.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

 

[Independent]

If you are 59 today, you were probably born in 1955. Your normal retirement age is 66 and 2 months. Your benefit at age 70 is 130.67% of your benefit at your NRA (aka, your PIA).

So it thinks your PIA is $27,550.

The PIA formula is approximately
90% of the first $10,000 of Average Indexed Annual Earnings, plus
32% of AIAE above $10,000 but below $60,000, plus
15% of the AIAE above $60,000

So it thinks your AIAE is about $80,000.

The "Indexed" means that you get to increase earlier earnings with a wage growth factor to make them comparable to today's earnings.

If you had indexed earnings of $65,000 for 9 years, then $117,000 for 19 years, plus 7 years of zeros, you'd have a 35 year average of $80,000.

Does that sound plausible?

 

[Independent]

If you want to really get into this, here is an example from Social Security.

Social Security Retirement Benefit Calculation

You can plug your own numbers in to see what happens. (Note that they solve for monthly benefits, not annual.)

 

[SumDay]

Interesting, I was playing on FireCalc today, and decided to log into SSA.gov and review my actual statement. When I click on "SIGN IN", it tells me the page cannot be found. What?

 

[fh2000]

Interesting, I was playing on FireCalc today, and decided to log into SSA.gov and review my actual statement. When I click on "SIGN IN", it tells me the page cannot be found. What?

The log in page is fine with me.
https://secure.ssa.gov/RIL/SiView.do