Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
DOW 1000 - A dire prediction
Old 04-08-2009, 07:37 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
shotgunner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 454
DOW 1000 - A dire prediction

Here is some cheery reading material

reportonbusiness.com: A bear's bear: We're only at beginning of collapse
__________________

__________________
Never surrender what you really want for what you want right now.
shotgunner is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-08-2009, 07:46 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,438
Why not DOW -0-? If your that gloomy just say the world is coming to an end.
__________________

__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 07:50 AM   #3
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,889
Very bearish, indeed! But I am encouraged since his reasoning is basically
Quote:
I sort of extended Kondratieff's economic cycle into something far bigger than he had ever intended.
When asked why there was a rally after the tech bust back in 2000, Gordon's response is
Quote:
Because [then Fed chairman Alan] Greenspan wouldn't let it. He brought interest rates down to 1 per cent [by 2004] and flooded the banking system with money.
In this statement he recognizes that what happens depends on future actions, choices, and events that we cannot predict that the may alter the future course of the economy. Very true, and this pretty much invalidates this degree of bearishness, it seems to me.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 07:51 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
bbbamI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas 'burb
Posts: 9,039
Oh goody...another doom and gloom article to start my day.....
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
bbbamI is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 08:10 AM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,666
It had been a little while, I was wondering when another of these would pop up.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
Zathras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 09:52 AM   #6
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 920
He seems to have a conclusion beforehand then using that find patterns in the noise of economic cycles and dates to support it.
__________________
tuixiu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 10:03 AM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,420
Hmm...

I wonder if it is time for me to change my name to NW-Buybuybuy-Bound.
__________________
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 10:43 AM   #8
Moderator Emeritus
CuppaJoe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,866
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
Hmm...

I wonder if it is time for me to change my name to NW-Buybuybuy-Bound.
Someone has to say it, how will you know when to change it again to NW-sellsellsell-I'mThere?
__________________
CuppaJoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 10:46 AM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,385
Quote:
Originally Posted by CuppaJoe View Post
Someone has to say it, how will you know when to change it again to NW-sellsellsell-I'mThere?
When he has a $10 million portfolio and is living in a $3 million dollar house on Bainbridge Island with a big triple pane window looking out on the Space Needle.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 10:51 AM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 312
From the article:

"I quickly discovered that it was very easy to recognize exactly where you were in the cycle."

And then he says:

"Soon after, the little fairies who live in my head started telling me which stocks were sure things."

I didn't have to read much more.
__________________
Grep is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 11:53 AM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
Awwww..doom and gloom.


__________________
Notmuchlonger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 12:12 PM   #12
Moderator Emeritus
CuppaJoe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,866
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
When he has a $10 million portfolio and is living in a $3 million dollar house on Bainbridge Island with a big triple pane window looking out on the Space Needle.

Ha
"Triple pane window" speaks volumes. Ha! Ha!

----
I wonder if that "Night With the Bears" event(!) would have sold out in the summer of '07, significantly to be held in Toronto in the the spring?
__________________
CuppaJoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 06:15 PM   #13
Recycles dryer sheets
mark500's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 146
He holds degrees in political science (York University) and journalism (Carleton) and has studied both French and Japanese.

I am not impressed.

Also,
When I started to write about this in '98, I knew exactly that we were in the autumn bull market [which always follows], and I knew that, given the massive increase in stock prices up to that point in time, we were much closer to the end than the beginning.

So why is he still working? He should have shorted the market.

This is the bad thing about the internet. Anyone can write drivel.
__________________
The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of misery.

Winston Churchill
mark500 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 06:56 PM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Brat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 5,914
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
When he has a $10 million portfolio and is living in a $3 million dollar house on Bainbridge Island with a big triple pane window looking out on the Space Needle.

Ha
Maybe he was the buyer of the house that just sold on South Beach No view of the Space Needle (I think) but on the Sound with a great view of Mt. Rainier. No need for triple pane windows, not that cold.
__________________
Duck bjorn.
Brat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 08:03 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,420
Quote:
Originally Posted by CuppaJoe View Post
Someone has to say it, how will you know when to change it again to NW-sellsellsell-I'mThere?
I do not know when yet, only that "now" is not the time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
When he has a $10 million portfolio and is living in a $3 million dollar house on Bainbridge Island with a big triple pane window looking out on the Space Needle.

Ha
Nah, my goal is more modest than that. And by the way you are all ahead of me as I had to search the Web to see that triple pane windows actually exist.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat View Post
Maybe he was the buyer of the house that just sold on South Beach No view of the Space Needle (I think) but on the Sound with a great view of Mt. Rainier. No need for triple pane windows, not that cold.
Now you made me curious. Address of said house please?

And it is true that it is not that cold in Seattle compared to my place up in the AZ boonies, where record lows of -26degF have been recorded. Double panes are all I have too.
__________________
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 09:15 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,420
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat View Post
No view of the Space Needle (I think) but on the Sound with a great view of Mt. Rainier.
Then, he should be able to snap pictures like this one that just got sent to me, of the so called "lenticular clouds" over Mt. Rainier.

__________________
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 10:26 PM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Brat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 5,914
John L. Scott Real Estate

Ah shucks, a $6M property... at least that is what it listed for.
1792 BEANS BIGHT RD NE
__________________
Duck bjorn.
Brat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2009, 10:35 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,420
RE Tax $50K. Wow! I would need the Dow to go A LOT higher than its past record of 14,000.

Like Dow 100,000.
__________________
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2009, 02:28 PM   #19
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 377
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
Then, he should be able to snap pictures like this one that just got sent to me, of the so called "lenticular clouds" over Mt. Rainier.

This is the exact backdrop on my computer, really great picture.

As far as what this guy says, people should google Gerald Celente. Guy has hit every downturn right on the nose. What he has to say is very sobering, and a big reason I got out at 14k.
__________________
No Soup for you! Come back 1 year!
Bigritchie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2009, 11:44 PM   #20
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 222
My initial response was to laugh, but then again, that was my initial response to that 'Dow 8000' thread we had a while back...
__________________

__________________
CompoundInterestFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Buy and Hold the original Dow 30 vs. investing in the Dow 30 index.... HokieHill FIRE and Money 1 04-07-2009 04:09 PM
Another view, DOW 3000 or DOW 12,200? RockOn FIRE and Money 25 03-03-2008 10:59 PM
*****POST Number 1000*************************** MasterBlaster FIRE and Money 5 01-25-2007 09:01 PM
1000 days W2R Hi, I am... 27 01-17-2007 09:03 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:36 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.