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Old 02-01-2013, 06:57 PM   #21
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It was the best January for the DOW since 1994, and the best for the S&P500 since 1997. So it may well be another couple of decades before we see a repeat.

And then today (Feb 1) we got the DOW closing above 14,000 and the S&P500 closing at a new 5-year high.

To thoroughly jinx everybody, tonight I'm going to see whether my Jan 1 withdrawal has already been paid for YTD. I think it might have as it was very close on Jan 29.
Yep - did it (and I still have a couple more distributions not counted yet).

What a sweet start to the year!

Jan 1 - Feb 1, our portfolio grew enough to recover our Jan 1 withdrawal, with a little change to spare. It's above our Dec 31 value which, coincidentally, was just $150 shy of the peak value in 2012.

I have the feeling that we won't see this kind of January again for many, many years, so we are going to do a little dance today.

Now watch the market crash big time
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Old 02-01-2013, 07:03 PM   #22
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One of my banks has just persuaded me to convert a chunk of Euros to USD (surely the Euro can't go on rising? We're broke, dammit!), and invest in an Asian-focused equity fund. What can I say, I like a challenge.
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Old 02-01-2013, 07:19 PM   #23
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Old 02-01-2013, 09:33 PM   #24
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I have the feeling that we won't see this kind of January again for many, many years, so we are going to do a little dance today.
Luckily there are 11 other months in the year.
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Old 02-02-2013, 01:03 AM   #25
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I think we are headed upward. The path may be a bit zig-zaggedy.
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Old 02-02-2013, 02:22 AM   #26
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Did anyone see CNBC near the end of the day today? It was very disturbing. They had a breaking news flash across the screen that stated:

"Stocks rally as disappointing jobs report fuels speculation of more fed buying"

So lets get this clear. Bad economic numbers lead to more fed qe which will ultimately drive up stock prices? Who knows where this will end up going. If we repeat the same cycle as 00/08, then we probably have less than 9 months before the wheels start falling off. My guess is we reach an all time high of 1600 on the spx before reality hits.
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Old 02-02-2013, 05:44 AM   #27
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That's why I don't watch CNBC.
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Old 02-02-2013, 05:48 AM   #28
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That's why I don't watch CNBC.
+1
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Old 02-02-2013, 05:50 AM   #29
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My guess is 15,000 in the next year. I still won't buy into it.

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Whaddya think? UP? Down?
How about a guess for March 1?
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Old 02-02-2013, 06:31 AM   #30
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So lets get this clear. Bad economic numbers lead to more fed qe which will ultimately drive up stock prices? Who knows where this will end up going. If we repeat the same cycle as 00/08, then we probably have less than 9 months before the wheels start falling off. My guess is we reach an all time high of 1600 on the spx before reality hits.
Well, all that QE money has to go somewhere. Hence stocks go up.
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Old 02-02-2013, 06:36 AM   #31
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This is my view also. The increase in the DOW numbers is artificial. This is one of the reasons why I won't buy into it.
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Well, all that QE money has to go somewhere. Hence stocks go up.
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Old 02-02-2013, 06:47 AM   #32
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This is my view also. The increase in the DOW numbers is artificial. This is one of the reasons why I won't buy into it.
Yep, I may get burned later but I still put money into it. As of right now 39% of my portfolio worth is total US market and 39% is international market. I'm probably a bit higher on the international side than many people.
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Old 02-02-2013, 06:57 AM   #33
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I fear the next big crisis as the federal government won't be able to give bailouts and payouts.
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Yep, I may get burned later but I still put money into it. As of right now 39% of my portfolio worth is total US market and 39% is international market. I'm probably a bit higher on the international side than many people.
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Old 02-02-2013, 07:00 AM   #34
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I fear the next big crisis as the federal government won't be able to give bailouts and payouts.
Stick to CD's and 'doctoring' and you'll be fine.
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Old 02-02-2013, 07:26 AM   #35
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Unfortunately, the sequestration and then the end of the continuing resolution and subsequent brief Federal shutdown will probably scare the markets down to 13500 or 13000. Would be a good time for some market timing but then the dodo-brains would arrive at a grand bargain driving us to 16000 instead. I guess I will sit tight and rebalance when appropriate.
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Old 02-02-2013, 07:38 AM   #36
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I"ve seen this movie before.
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Old 02-02-2013, 07:46 AM   #37
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On the bright side my portfolio is only $10K away from the annual goal I set for my birthday - which isn't until September.
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Old 02-02-2013, 08:55 AM   #38
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I wouldn't be surprised to see 13,000 again before 15,000. But the stock market is supposed to increase, so I suppose we'll get to 15,000 eventually.
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Old 02-02-2013, 10:59 AM   #39
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Well, all that QE money has to go somewhere. Hence stocks go up.
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This is my view also. The increase in the DOW numbers is artificial. This is one of the reasons why I won't buy into it.
I think about this alot, too. The Fed's created a scenario to encourage stock buying, yet still stock funds had poor inflows, while bond funds had strong inflows.

Lately we've been hearing lots of warnings about the bond market. I wonder if that, combined with some highs on the Dow will bring money into stocks from bonds?

That scenario seems somewhat logical, but plenty of opposing scenarios seem logical, too. At least its not summer.
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Old 02-02-2013, 11:15 AM   #40
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For Fun Lets ask the Golden 8 ball where Dow is headed :

Will the Dow hit 15,000 this year? The Stars say no.
Will the Dow drop below 13,000? Indications say yes.
Will the Dow end the year up? Cannot fortell now.
Will the Dow set a new alltime high this year? Positively.
Should I take a years expenses today? Yes

Please feel free to post any questions for the Great Golden 8 ball any market questions.
Wonder if I should develop the New Golden 8 ball Market Predictor and become rich selling it. LOL
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