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Old 11-28-2017, 03:16 PM   #1
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DOW 25k by 12/31/2017

Santa rally underway.
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Old 11-28-2017, 03:29 PM   #2
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I'm not holding my breath.
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Old 11-28-2017, 03:32 PM   #3
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Only another 5%
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Old 11-28-2017, 03:33 PM   #4
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That's it. I am out. I am rebalancing (and then some) tomorrow . Call me a DMT.
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Old 11-28-2017, 03:34 PM   #5
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Lol
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Old 11-28-2017, 04:05 PM   #6
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I will say that people like John Bogle have grossley underestimated stock market returns for many years now. People are just begining to realize mid single digit return forecasts have people under invested in stocks. Vanguard is rolling out managed ETFs. Who'd a thunk it.
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Old 11-28-2017, 05:00 PM   #7
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It's almost believable these days. That said, remember this?!

http://www.amazon.com/Dow-2008-Diffe...S0W1TGK85Q2A7Y
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Old 11-28-2017, 05:08 PM   #8
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He was only off by 10 years.
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Old 11-28-2017, 05:09 PM   #9
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May see 30k next year.
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Old 11-28-2017, 05:16 PM   #10
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That's it. I am out. I am rebalancing (and then some) tomorrow . Call me a DMT.
I have been rebalancing frequently this year waiting for the bottom to fall out but nothing so far... joke's on me.
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Old 11-28-2017, 05:26 PM   #11
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Santa rally underway.


A dream come true! We suffered through 2008-2009 together, and now is our time to enjoy the "up side".

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Old 11-28-2017, 05:37 PM   #12
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I remember the elation in the last months in 1999. People were celebrating the new millennium. Some were discovering the Web and its wonders. The media talked about how the Internet traffic was doubling every few months. Dot-com stocks were priced not on what profits they made, but on how many visits their Web sites got daily. They had not made any money yet, but soon, really soon ... Technology was wonderful... Fast computers, people working at home, buying grocery online and having it delivered by Webvan, HomeGrocer, etc...

Currently, it is not to the same level, but why do I have some nagging déjà vu feelings?

In the months ahead, I will watch very closely for more bubblicious signs. If not raising more cash, then I will step up the covered call selling to hedge.
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Old 11-28-2017, 05:49 PM   #13
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Currently, it is not to the same level, but why do I have some nagging déjà vu feelings?
+1

Right now its going up up up. I think there is a ton of money banking on overseas profit repatriation, lower corporate taxes, and 3+% growth. When those don't materialize or fall short of expectations watch out below.
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Old 11-28-2017, 06:18 PM   #14
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I will say that people like John Bogle have grossley underestimated stock market returns for many years now. People are just begining to realize mid single digit return forecasts have people under invested in stocks. Vanguard is rolling out managed ETFs. Who'd a thunk it.
People under invested? Maybe it was so in 2016 or earlier, but I am not sure it is true now.

One can search the Web using the phrase "cash on the sidelines", and just a glance over the headlines will show what is being reported.

This is a typical one that I found, back in July 2017:
According to the latest BofA flow show report, ... private client cash - i.e., high net worth individuals, or those who still allocate capital to single-stocks and ETFs on a discretionary basis (unlike the broader US public which has long ago given up on the stock market), is now at a record low, taking out the cash levels observed in the period just prior to the last market peak in 2007...
Perhaps all the "smart money" was already in, and the little guys who are late to the game are just now buying, and buying indiscriminately. The market can still go up a while, but I am getting more and more wary.

Currently at 72.3% stock AA as I am writing this...
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Old 11-28-2017, 06:26 PM   #15
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May see 30k next year.
What will be the next milestone: Over 30k, or back under 20k? That might make an interesting poll for this forum.
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Old 11-28-2017, 06:37 PM   #16
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I remember the elation in the last months in 1999. People were celebrating the new millennium. Some were discovering the Web and its wonders. The media talked about how the Internet traffic was doubling every few months. Dot-com stocks were priced not on what profits they made, but on how many visits their Web sites got daily. They had not made any money yet, but soon, really soon ... Technology was wonderful... Fast computers, people working at home, buying grocery online and having it delivered by Webvan, HomeGrocer, etc...

Currently, it is not to the same level, but why do I have some nagging déjà vu feelings?

In the months ahead, I will watch very closely for more bubblicious signs. If not raising more cash, then I will step up the covered call selling to hedge.
That's because most people got the start year of the new millennium wrong.
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Old 11-28-2017, 06:38 PM   #17
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Vanguard says 70% chance of a correction. We can only hope. Not sure what Vanguards record is for calling corrections. Didn't even know they did that.
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Old 11-28-2017, 06:48 PM   #18
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Planning on a 35 year retirement horizon so we're just staying the course with AA.
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Old 11-28-2017, 06:50 PM   #19
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I remember the elation in the last months in 1999. People were celebrating the new millennium. Some were discovering the Web and its wonders.

Currently, it is not to the same level, but why do I have some nagging déjà vu feelings?
Well it's a little toppy(&#129315 right now.

I remember 2000, 2008..

What's smart money do?
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Old 11-28-2017, 07:53 PM   #20
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Is this a 'wheee!!' thread?
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