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Old 08-03-2013, 11:35 PM   #41
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Please note that in this time period, it took about 4 to 5 years to recover from the last peak (2000-2004 and 2008-2012), during which time dividends were still being pumped out. If you could have lived off 2.4% dividends (on average--I have not looked at the actual periods), you would come out 5 years later intact.

DIA declines were about 8 years apart during that period. Projecting, there would be 3 or 4 more in the next 30 years. Plan accordingly.

I consider the DIA a lousy index, by the way.
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Old 08-04-2013, 12:33 AM   #42
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While I used the S&P's total return from 1/2000 to 1/2013, Ed used the Dow's total return from 1/1998 to 1/2013. I showed a bleak performance, Ed showed an OK performance. Who's right?

Answer: Both! The S&P and the Dow disagree but not to that level. What happened was the big market rise from 1/1998 to 1/2000. The S&P jumped a huge factor of 1.56X in those 2 years. You can see the same on the Dow, in Ed's chart. If you missed that, you were hurting for a decade!

Conclusion: It's tough to be completely out of the market.

PS. I am hanging on to my 70% equity and hoping for the best.
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Old 08-04-2013, 05:11 AM   #43
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To get to 36,000, don't we have to assume that there is ample room for growth in corporate income? I don't see a lot of that, at least in the US. I think we're just about tapped out.
Don't forget inflation also applies to corporate income....
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Old 08-04-2013, 10:46 AM   #44
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Don't forget inflation also applies to corporate income....
TJ
Good point.
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