Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 10-07-2008, 11:06 PM   #201
Recycles dryer sheets
Gardnr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: ENE MO - near STL
Posts: 424
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finance Dave View Post
If you would have told me a year ago we'd be at 9,500 today, I'd have said you're full of it. Just goes to show I can't predict the market. My only saving grace is that I already knew I couldn't...and I've never claimed that I could.

Now that the market is down, I'd just as soon see it stay there for 6 months so the 18% I have taken out of my paycheck along with our $8,000 IRA contributions we'll make in about a month buy us more equities at sale prices.

Dave
Yeah, I know the feeling. For that matter, reinvesting dividends at fire sale prices would help long term as well.

Even given the thoughtful, analytical side that yields that conclusion, it's hard to get over the gut wrenching that this downturn creates.

It's definitely more fun looking at an upward sloping trend, ain't it!?
__________________

__________________
Gardnr is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 10-08-2008, 08:29 AM   #202
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 488
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg54 View Post
You tell us. You have the crystal ball. While your at it, where does it go from there?
To 6000.
Anyone paying attention could have seen this coming a year ago. They built and sold 20 years worth of homes in 10 years. Outsourcing, moving manufacturing overseas and downsizing became the norm and borrowing as much as the banks and credit cards would lend you seemed to be the American thing to do. All the bubbles had burst and there were no more bubbles left in the toolshed. Greed kept the markets rising as we gradually lost the economic fundementals that built this country.
A capitalist country can not exist on credit alone.
All the kool-aid drinking, tin foil hat wearing doom and gloomers were dead on.
__________________

__________________
Razor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2008, 08:31 AM   #203
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
500 - 1000 if you believe the Elliott Wave cult
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2008, 09:03 AM   #204
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,666
Quote:
Originally Posted by Razor View Post
To 6000.
Anyone paying attention could have seen this coming a year ago. They built and sold 20 years worth of homes in 10 years.
Well existing home sales up 9% would seem to argue that the fall won't be all the way to 6000. And heck, we have yet to hit 8000, although that seems a lot more likely that it did 6 months ago.
I'll predict we will hit 12000 with absolute certainty. I am sure that prediction is just as valid as yours
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
Zathras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2008, 09:04 AM   #205
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,361
I love these predictions. Like anyone knows.

I'm going to make my prediction.

This morning's open was the low. We are heading up from here, baby!
__________________
Hamlet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2009, 05:46 PM   #206
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 488
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zathras View Post
Well existing home sales up 9% would seem to argue that the fall won't be all the way to 6000. And heck, we have yet to hit 8000, although that seems a lot more likely that it did 6 months ago.
I'll predict we will hit 12000 with absolute certainty. I am sure that prediction is just as valid as yours
12,000 when?
__________________
Razor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2009, 06:09 PM   #207
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,666
Well if I had to say when I couldn't be as certain, could I?
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
Zathras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2009, 08:27 PM   #208
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 98
Its always interesting when these threads come back to life - and we get a chance to see what everybody was predicting. There were so many warning signs this was coming - and an increasing number of managers/academics sounding the alarms:

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: July 16, 2007 - A Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest

Yes, he did lose 9% last year. But hell, corporate bonds got pounded as well. And it wasn't, as Hussman calls a 40+% drop - an unacceptable loss.

And so far he's up 3% this year.

But the real question is why do those who post thoughts that the market is overvalued, and bound for a fall - especially when the market is hitting high after high when the housing market is obviously imploding (as in late 2007) - get shouted down here? Only bandwagon jumpers get to ride?

There is no such thing as a bad profit. Take some money off the table now and again - wrack up some capital gains when the market is kind. And the whole concept that valuations don't matter (they are the ONLY thing that matters) has finally been put to bed.

I wonder how many bubbles people are going to have to live (and suffer) through before they realize that selling when they have attained a nice profit is not such a bad idea...

And to keep an eye on whether a DOW 14200 makes any rational sense with a collapsing real estate market.
__________________
cyclone6 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2009, 09:39 PM   #209
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,666
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyclone6 View Post
But the real question is why do those who post thoughts that the market is overvalued, and bound for a fall - especially when the market is hitting high after high when the housing market is obviously imploding (as in late 2007) - get shouted down here? Only bandwagon jumpers get to ride?
I looked over the first few pages of the thread again. I don't believe anyone was 'shouted down' although there were some humor and poking fun of doom predictions.
I think part of it was few people cared.
I know I didn't. As others have mentioned, it actually works well for those with assets to invest.
Razor himself said he was going to buy back in at 8000.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
Zathras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2009, 09:51 PM   #210
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zathras View Post
I looked over the first few pages of the thread again. I don't believe anyone was 'shouted down' although there were some humor and poking fun of doom predictions.
I think part of it was few people cared.
I know I didn't. As others have mentioned, it actually works well for those with assets to invest.
Razor himself said he was going to buy back in at 8000.
It wasn't necessarily in this thread that the shout downs occurred. But it became such commonplace to my posting concerns over market valuations that I eventually cut way back on posting.

All I can say is that I'm damn grateful that I heeded the advice of a few of the non-CNBC pumpers who warned of what was possibly to come, avoided all of the "blue light specials", and stocked up on tin foil.

That tin foil hat has served me well to this point.
__________________
cyclone6 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2009, 11:30 PM   #211
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,387
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyclone6 View Post
It wasn't necessarily in this thread that the shout downs occurred. But it became such commonplace to my posting concerns over market valuations that I eventually cut way back on posting.

All I can say is that I'm damn grateful that I heeded the advice of a few of the non-CNBC pumpers who warned of what was possibly to come, avoided all of the "blue light specials", and stocked up on tin foil.

That tin foil hat has served me well to this point.
Any clichés that you forgot to employ?

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2009, 08:44 AM   #212
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 488
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zathras View Post
I looked over the first few pages of the thread again. I don't believe anyone was 'shouted down' although there were some humor and poking fun of doom predictions.
I think part of it was few people cared.
I know I didn't. As others have mentioned, it actually works well for those with assets to invest.
Razor himself said he was going to buy back in at 8000.
The thing is they were not predictions of doom. There were predictions based on reality and not irrational exuberance. I was flamed over and over by those that should know a lot more than I do. I guess they aren't as smart as they thought they were. I lost nothing. Can they say the same?
I did put 10% back into the market at 8000. I'm not so sure it was such a good move because there is a heck of a lot more bad news coming before things get better. Millions more layoffs, the automaker situation, the threat of inflation now that the government is firing up the printing presses, the meltdown of the commercial real estate sector, more bankruptcies and retail closings, the phony "stimulus", and on and on.
FLAME ON......
__________________
Razor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2009, 09:06 AM   #213
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
HFWR's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 12,964
Quote:
Originally Posted by Razor View Post
The thing is they were not predictions of doom. There were predictions based on reality and not irrational exuberance. I was flamed over and over by those that should know a lot more than I do. I guess they aren't as smart as they thought they were. I lost nothing. Can they say the same?
I did put 10% back into the market at 8000. I'm not so sure it was such a good move because there is a heck of a lot more bad news coming before things get better. Millions more layoffs, the automaker situation, the threat of inflation now that the government is firing up the printing presses, the meltdown of the commercial real estate sector, more bankruptcies and retail closings, the phony "stimulus", and on and on.
FLAME ON......
We're sorry! Really! We come to you with tin-foil hats in hand...

Since there are so many experts, pulling opinions out of their wazoos, I'm sticking with my AA/low-cost index funds. That may be a stupid move, or not.
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2009, 12:22 PM   #214
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DblDoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,224
It would be interesting to resurrect this thread in about 20 years. Then we will know who was right and who was wrong. Until then .

DD
__________________
DblDoc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2009, 12:45 PM   #215
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,666
From the first few pages, 'flame' is a bit strong. Yes, some people poked fun at the idea the world is ending and some said you may be right the Dow will hit 8000 (which obviously happened).
But from what I saw, most were saying 'so what'. Yes, selling everything at 12,000 and jumping back in at the bottom (where ever that is) will save you a bunch of money.
Likewise, there are other good ways to weather the storm depending upon your situation.
As for warnings, again, so what? I can gaurentee you there will be a bull market, and I will gaurentee you there will be more bear markets after the bull market. I suppose it is critical to know when this is happening for someone the is 'all in' CDs, or a particular sector of the market, or 100% allocation in any one thing. But for my allocation, and because I have a 5 year cushion, it really is just a chance to increase my income flow.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
Zathras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2009, 02:19 PM   #216
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 488
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zathras View Post
From the first few pages, 'flame' is a bit strong. Yes, some people poked fun at the idea the world is ending and some said you may be right the Dow will hit 8000 (which obviously happened).
But from what I saw, most were saying 'so what'. Yes, selling everything at 12,000 and jumping back in at the bottom (where ever that is) will save you a bunch of money.
Likewise, there are other good ways to weather the storm depending upon your situation.
As for warnings, again, so what? I can gaurentee you there will be a bull market, and I will gaurentee you there will be more bear markets after the bull market. I suppose it is critical to know when this is happening for someone the is 'all in' CDs, or a particular sector of the market, or 100% allocation in any one thing. But for my allocation, and because I have a 5 year cushion, it really is just a chance to increase my income flow.
I noticed that the same people that said "so what" are now crying about how much money they've lost. I never said the world was ending, just that we were headed for a severe recession or maybe even a depression.
The collapse of the housing sector pretty much guarenteed it.
At this point I don't see how you can guarentee a bull market ever again, unless of course the stimulus package works a miracle.
__________________
Razor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2009, 02:45 PM   #217
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,666
We will have a bull market again regardless of how well the stimulus package works. It may be in a year, it may be in 50, but it will happen.
No one LIKES seeing their portfolio go down in value. But that doesn't mean that fundamentally, market fluctuations make little difference to them for their long term goals.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
Zathras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2009, 03:18 PM   #218
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 488
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zathras View Post
We will have a bull market again regardless of how well the stimulus package works. It may be in a year, it may be in 50, but it will happen.
No one LIKES seeing their portfolio go down in value. But that doesn't mean that fundamentally, market fluctuations make little difference to them for their long term goals.
If it ever does happen, I am leaning more towards the 50 year mark.
This is more than a market fluctuation. We have lost the very economic fundementals that built this country.
__________________
Razor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2009, 04:01 PM   #219
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,613
Quote:
Originally Posted by Razor View Post
If it ever does happen, I am leaning more towards the 50 year mark.
This is more than a market fluctuation. We have lost the very economic fundementals that built this country.
Would it make you feel better to just reserve the right to keep pouring salt into the wounds for the next 50 years?
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2009, 04:40 PM   #220
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 488
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
Would it make you feel better to just reserve the right to keep pouring salt into the wounds for the next 50 years?
Nope. I am done here.
__________________

__________________
Razor is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Another view, DOW 3000 or DOW 12,200? RockOn FIRE and Money 25 03-03-2008 10:59 PM
Dow - Wow! BUM FIRE and Money 17 05-07-2006 02:17 PM
A Naive $8000 question. Enuff2Eat FIRE and Money 3 03-20-2006 10:01 PM
Dow 40000 wompo FIRE and Money 9 10-17-2005 05:28 PM
No Bubble for the DOW retire@40 FIRE and Money 16 06-04-2005 11:29 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:36 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.