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Old 03-21-2009, 05:20 PM   #221
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If it ever does happen, I am leaning more towards the 50 year mark.
This is more than a market fluctuation. We have lost the very economic fundementals that built this country.
That sounds awfully doomish to me. And that is why people make fun of the position.
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Old 03-21-2009, 05:21 PM   #222
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Nope. I am done here.
Cool.

ha
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Old 03-21-2009, 06:32 PM   #223
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That sounds awfully doomish to me. And that is why people make fun of the position.
Therein lies the problem. We were "made fun of" when the DOW was at 14200. And 12000. And 10000. And 8000.

Markets go up - and down. But if you post that you think its going down, you get flamed. Call it what you will, but if you're not following the herd (lemmings?) and post a counter point of view, you get flamed.

I never understood why discussion of where the market stands should prompt such responses.

As for the cliches - they're not mine, they were the ones I always received when posting the market could be due for a big correction. "Blue light special". "Tin foil hat". Not my words...I've never resorted to cliches to stake a position.

Once you've joined the herd mentality, its easy to throw out cliches in an attempt to ridicule someone who says..."wait a minute". Not that the cliche does anything to forward a rational rebuttal, but it does make many feel superior in their conviction that they are obviously correct.

Hussman, for his part, is now of the thought that if you buy-and-hold at this point that a nice long-term (10+ years) 10% return is in the offing. I hope he's right (again).

But instead of throwing cliches - and ridiculing - when the market was at the height of irrational exuberance - wouldn't you rather be starting at 7300 instead of 14200? Seems better to me to be looking at
potential upside profit at this stage instead of hoping to make back significant *real* losses.
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Old 03-21-2009, 07:14 PM   #224
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wouldn't you rather be starting at 7300 instead of 14200? Seems better to me to be looking at
potential upside profit at this stage instead of hoping to make back significant *real* losses.
There is no doubt that this is correct. And from here, it may seem that it was inevitable. But I don't think it was. Mistakes were made, policy makers got bad breaks, and it went pretty badly.

I never like to sell out completely, because I pay CG taxes, and the market may or may not go down. I'm meaningfully down over the past 18 months, and I wish I were not. However, I am not down from 2000, or 2003, and I live off my portfolio, and have done so for many years.

You are free to try to find me ridiculing anyone who predicted a bear market; I don't think you will. I have always understood that pretty much anything can happen.

But you guys are playing a safe game now. The market is down, as you may have predicted. Predict what happens next. The guy who is leaving seems to predict no recovery. I think that scenario is long shot, but I try not to make predictions as it is very easy to be wrong, and you get nothing for being right.

My opinion is like someone stated above-be careful about your bragging boys 'cause this game isn't over yet.

Ha
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