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Old 03-09-2008, 09:47 AM   #61
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I think we're having a news induced recession. The extreme fear in the news seems to have come before the data. I guess that if we all try hard enough and stop buying things we could slow it even further.
We could know if we're technically in a recession as soon as March 27th. That's the date that the final report of 4th qtr GDP comes out. Preliminary numbers are 0.6% increase for 4th qtr. If the final report comes out negative, and the 1st qtr is negative(I'd bet it is), then we're in a recession. If the 4th qtr remains positive, we'll have to wait and see if 1st and 2d qtr GDP growth is negative.
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Old 03-09-2008, 09:48 AM   #62
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Here's a GDP link:

BEA: News Release: Gross Domestic Product
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Old 03-09-2008, 10:09 AM   #63
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Last 3 Months1.25% 1 Year4.57% 3 Year Annualized4.26%

It is JP Morgan 401K Fund. I don't know if it's available outside deferred plan. I sure slept better after I got out of stocks for awhile.
My heavy in stock funds portfolio is up .4% 1 year, and 8.3% 3 year and 13.0 5 year.... (don't have 3 months, but it is DOWN)....

So, is sleeping better really that good?
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Old 03-09-2008, 10:29 AM   #64
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My heavy in stock funds portfolio is up .4% 1 year, and 8.3% 3 year and 13.0 5 year.... (don't have 3 months, but it is DOWN)....

So, is sleeping better really that good?
That's the stable value fund return, not mine.
Yes sleeping better is good, because I had all my money in the stock fund up until August of last year. You see I missed the 16% drop. My return is up more than 15% for last 52 weeks and still moving positive. I expect a substantial drop in the market in '08 so I will probably sleep even better not to be part of that slide.
Back when the DOT com bubble was peaking I was going to get out of stocks but my financial advisor told me to stay in so I didn't miss out. After losing 40% of my retirement and waiting 5 years to get back to even I decided to make my own decisions. When it's pretty obvious when stocks are high and the economy is ready to tank it's my preference to get out of stocks for awhile..
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Old 03-09-2008, 10:57 AM   #65
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... I had all my money in the stock fund up until August of last year. ...I expect a substantial drop in the market in '08 so I will probably sleep even better not to be part of that slide.
I asked this earlier and didn't see a response. What will you do if the market doesn't continue to slide, but has already hit a low and begins to climb? When will you get back in?
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Old 03-09-2008, 11:11 AM   #66
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I asked this earlier and didn't see a response. What will you do if the market doesn't continue to slide, but has already hit a low and begins to climb? When will you get back in?
I am probably not going to do anything for six months. If something happens that leads me to believe prosperity is ahead I will get back in. Right now I don't see another housing boom or technology explosion in the near future. I honestly believe we are in for some tough times the next few years.
The DOW was close to 14000 when I got out of the stock fund so I do have some room to work with. At this point in my life I am satisfied with any gain, just can't handle a big loss like before, too close to retirement.
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Old 03-09-2008, 12:36 PM   #67
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I am probably not going to do anything for six months. If something happens that leads me to believe prosperity is ahead I will get back in. Right now I don't see another housing boom or technology explosion in the near future. I honestly believe we are in for some tough times the next few years.
The DOW was close to 14000 when I got out of the stock fund so I do have some room to work with. At this point in my life I am satisfied with any gain, just can't handle a big loss like before, too close to retirement.
So what point determines when you get back in? When your gut tells you? When the indexes get to a certain point? Any kind of metric?
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Old 03-09-2008, 01:12 PM   #68
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So what point determines when you get back in? When your gut tells you? When the indexes get to a certain point? Any kind of metric?
I work in the housing industry and when it looks like the housing market is going to stabilize, housing starts rise, our analysts forecast increase demand for new homes, US car companies start making a profit, energy prices drop, and the value of the dollar rises I will get back in.
Or I may put some back in when the DOW reaches 10,000, 9,000, 8000.
I really haven't decided for sure yet.
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Old 03-11-2008, 08:01 AM   #69
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damn you Fed, damn you

my shorts were doing so well
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Old 03-11-2008, 08:18 AM   #70
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damn you Fed, damn you

my shorts were doing so well
God Bless them. No sticking my head in the oven today.
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Old 03-11-2008, 08:24 AM   #71
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God Bless them. No sticking my head in the oven today.
Oh pooh. Serves me right for not checking the news before buying equity funds. Guess it won't matter in 40 years, but this is still aggravating.

I'm happy for you though, Dawg52! I can imagine this must be easing your mind a bit.
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Old 03-11-2008, 08:27 AM   #72
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no biggie

they cut the discount rate in august and we all know what happened since then. might just lock in my slimmer profits today just in case
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Old 03-11-2008, 08:33 AM   #73
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Oh pooh. Serves me right for not checking the news before buying equity funds. Guess it won't matter in 40 years, but this is still aggravating.

I'm happy for you though, Dawg52! I can imagine this must be easing your mind a bit.
Hard to time it perfectly. Who knows, some other news might come out today and it all goes away.

I'm ok. I restocked the bar so I'm prepared for anything.
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Old 03-11-2008, 08:48 AM   #74
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Hard to time it perfectly. Who knows, some other news might come out today and it all goes away.

I'm ok. I restocked the bar so I'm prepared for anything.
Good idea. We probably will not be completely out of the woods for some time.
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Old 03-11-2008, 08:49 AM   #75
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i get around 2220 as the magic line of resistance for the nasdaq
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Old 03-11-2008, 08:54 AM   #76
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Jonathan Hoenig at Smartmoney.com had these sobering words to say:
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...there are virtually no equities showing strength at present. With such widespread weakness, one could easily fashion an argument that stocks are oversold and due for a bounce. Still, markets tend not to decline sharply because they're poised to thunder up to new highs. There's been some serious damage done that will take, at minimum, months to rebuild.
No Signs of End to Real Estate, Banking Crises (Citigroup, Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, Countrywide Financial, Washington Mutual) | SmartMoney.com

If he's right, then Dawg52 will need to keep his spirits up (so to speak). On the other hand, my own crystal ball is still not functioning at all well. I would be perfectly happy if we now proceeded to have a nice runup.
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Old 03-11-2008, 11:48 AM   #77
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Jonathan Hoenig at Smartmoney.com had these sobering words to say:

No Signs of End to Real Estate, Banking Crises (Citigroup, Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, Countrywide Financial, Washington Mutual) | SmartMoney.com

If he's right, then Dawg52 will need to keep his spirits up (so to speak). On the other hand, my own crystal ball is still not functioning at all well. I would be perfectly happy if we now proceeded to have a nice runup.
Easy for him to say, he runs a hedge fund that buys non-correlated assets like precious metals and foreign currencies....he NEEDS the equity markets to continue on this path or he won't be finding opportunities.............
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Old 03-11-2008, 11:50 AM   #78
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BTW, Dow 8000?? That's pretty funny.........
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Old 03-11-2008, 11:51 AM   #79
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so far the day is pretty bearish, but 3pm is when the institutional money starts flowing and we'll see what happens. so far i'm glad i didn't sell my QID out of emotion
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Old 03-11-2008, 02:25 PM   #80
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"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Tuesday afternoon as investors welcomed news that the Federal Reserve will lend up to $200 billion to banks and lenders as a means of loosening up tight credit markets."

Seeing as our country is 9 trillion in debt, where does the FED get the 200 billion to lend? Do they just print more? I really don't know how it works.
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