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Old 04-01-2008, 02:20 PM   #101
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Anyone know why the big jump today?
it's always intriguing to try to explain the market (and no doubt its fruitless), but i'm guessing:
1) UBS write-down of $19B
2) Deutsche Bank write-down of $4B
3) manufacturing down (ISM)
4) construction spending down

no doubt these sound negative, but:

#1 and #2 removes some uncertainty about how much crap was on the balance sheet (markets don't like uncertainty) and write-downs are the first steps to getting back on track

#3 & #4 while down, both were better than had been expected.

lastly
5) Lehman Bros. raised $4B in new captial, and UBS has plans to do so.
The markets seem supportive of this, and that is a good sign (again removing some uncertainty)
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Old 04-01-2008, 02:23 PM   #102
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Are the tinfoil hats on clearance now?
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Old 04-01-2008, 02:28 PM   #103
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Are the tinfoil hats on clearance now?

Perhaps some slightly used tinfoil underwear.
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Old 04-01-2008, 02:35 PM   #104
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average volume is trending down, doubt this will last more than a few weeks
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Old 04-01-2008, 02:39 PM   #105
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average volume is trending down, doubt this will last more than a few weeks
The Dow is up over 350 points already today. I would be truly amazed if it didn't plunge considerably tomorrow.

But please, let me be amazed!!
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Old 04-01-2008, 02:48 PM   #106
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the trend has been up monday through wednesday and down on thursday and friday

read a few of my blogs and all the indexes were building a bullish pattern that i didn't see before so we get a nice day today. but once the sp500 rallies to around 1400 and the nasdaq to 2400 or 2450 a longer term bearish pattern takes place

mentioned in another thread that we are due for a rally to the trend line, and this is probably it

draw an imaginary line from the peak of any index going through the lower peaks for each rally and you will get an approximate idea where it should end. but i did sell my QQQQ today just in case. no reason not to cash in a nice 5% profit in a week
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Old 04-01-2008, 09:14 PM   #107
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I think its hilarious to listen to the resons given on the news for market ups and downs. It's a lot of revisionist history in most cases. I can only imagine the room where everyone sits around and looks at where the market has gone and then looks at the news. If the market is down they find some negative news bits to use as the reason and vice versa.

My gut feel is not good about giving the Fed more power. It feels like there must be a lot of concern about some really bad times ahead and that more Fed control will be needed so that's why this change is being proposed. I don't think such a change will eliminate recessions, economic cycles, or risks of deflation, or people gaming the system.

I was reading some history from the 1930's and I was surprised to read that JPMorgan and some others tried to financially back a US General into overthrowing the US government when the SEC and other big regulatory changes were first proposed. I hope there's not a correlation of big regulatory legislation with the onset of bad times.
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Old 04-02-2008, 01:05 AM   #108
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"I was reading some history from the 1930's and I was surprised to read that JPMorgan and some others tried to financially back a US General into overthrowing the US government when the SEC and other big regulatory changes were first proposed. I hope there's not a correlation of big regulatory legislation with the onset of bad times. "

Hi Slarty,

I never heard of that about JP tried to back a US General into overthrowing the US government. Mind sharing where you read that at? I enjoy history and would like to read about it.

Thanks
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Old 04-02-2008, 07:02 AM   #109
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Notmuchlonger, You have a cool pic. I need to come up with something cool for myself.

Here is a good web link to read a summary of the coupe attempt and it has sources provided at the bottom of the web page if you want read more detail about it. It was JP Morgan and the DuPont's who tried to overthrow the US government and install a fascist government. In fact, I've run into various discussions about how extreme deficit spending as recommended by Keynesian economics runs a high risk of creating fascist governments. I'm not convinced that's true, but its interesting.

THE BUSINESS PLOT TO OVERTHROW ROOSEVELT
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Old 04-02-2008, 10:36 AM   #110
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The DOW is just creaping along today, waiting for something to trigger a move.
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Old 04-02-2008, 11:55 AM   #111
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Yesterday morning I reallocated some of our foreign, small, and large cap index funds into toward our retirement goal (late 2010) of 50/50. Good day to do it since the trade got done at close of business.
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Old 04-02-2008, 06:24 PM   #112
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i'm reading my technical analysis book, the chapter on candlestick charting. i think we are going to have a 1% or more down day tomorrow
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Old 04-02-2008, 06:30 PM   #113
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i'm reading my technical analysis book, the chapter on candlestick charting. i think we are going to have a 1% or more down day tomorrow
Is someone paying you for these set-ups? :confused:

Ha
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Old 04-02-2008, 06:41 PM   #114
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Must resist....
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Old 04-02-2008, 07:35 PM   #115
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It is human nature to seek patterns...even where none exist.

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Old 04-02-2008, 07:48 PM   #116
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It is human nature to seek patterns...even where none exist.

DD
i used to believe this nonsense as well
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Old 04-02-2008, 07:49 PM   #117
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Is someone paying you for these set-ups? :confused:

Ha

yes, go out and buy some QID now

better yet buy it tomorrow around 3:30pm or friday when i sell it
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Old 04-02-2008, 07:49 PM   #118
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Must resist....
Resistance is futile


ok a pic too
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Old 04-02-2008, 08:05 PM   #119
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yes, go out and buy some QID now

better yet buy it tomorrow around 3:30pm or friday when i sell it
It will be fun to watch. I'm DCA'ing some cash in over the next 9 months or so. Buying more each time the market gets oversold, oh, that's market timing isn't it? I wouldn't want it to run away from here. Good luck on that call Big Al. You can silence them all forever.
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Old 04-02-2008, 08:09 PM   #120
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don't know where the market is going to be next week but i'm almost positive that this is a sucker rally

when you get past all the charts and talking heads, there is no leadership. a real rally and a start to a new bull market is supposed to have leading stocks going up on very heavy volume. think Google, Apple, Sandisk, RIMM, Genentech, homebuilders from the last bull leg as well as a lot of the energy companies like Apache that went up big.

i scan the list of stocks going up on heavy volume every few days and i don't see any potential leaders. these are supposed to be companies growing revenues and earnings at high double digit rates as well as return on equity over 20% and define the economy and the stocks people talk about in the upcoming bull leg
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