Dow 8000?

[innova]

but i'm almost positive that this is a sucker rally

10 years from now it won't matter if it is, or it isn't. That is why the long-term mindset folk here collectively roll their eyes at these types of statements.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

I keep buying. Probably because Im ignorant and just a sucker. Oh well at least Ill go down swinging

 

[al_bundy]

10 years from now it won't matter if it is, or it isn't. That is why the long-term mindset folk here collectively roll their eyes at these types of statements.

my goal is to outperform the sp500 by 1% a year

long term is anyone's guess. the Elliot Wave cult is saying we are at the end of the 200 year grand supercycle and we are going to have the mother of all busts. google will tell you the details, but the Elliot Wave cult believes that all stock market moves are a 5 point up move followed by a 3 point down move. not points like in percent, but kind of like Zeus's lightning bolt. they believe that you see this pattern in daily charts and all the way up to the lifetime chart of the stock market.

supposedly we are at the peak now. i'm reading The House of Morgan and there are some parallels between the 1840's and today, foreigners lent us money and we don't want to pay it back

 

[DblDoc]

I keep buying. Probably because Im ignorant and just a sucker. Oh well at least Ill go down swinging

Looks like stocks are on sale again today, don't miss out on your share. I won't be able to back the truck up again until the 15th.

DD

 

[innova]

my goal is to outperform the sp500 by 1% a year

No problem.

20% Total bond
40% Total US
40% Total International

Done

Elliot Wave cult is saying we are at the end of the 200 year grand supercycle and we are going to have the mother of all busts. google will tell you the details, but the Elliot Wave cult believes that all stock market moves are a 5 point up move followed by a 3 point down move. not points like in percent, but kind of like Zeus's lightning bolt. they believe that you see this pattern in daily charts and all the way up to the lifetime chart of the stock market.

Even if they are right, how is this actionable information? If I start calling for a huge bull run right now, I'll be right - it just may take 20 years to happen.

The problem with chart patterns is that as soon as everyone knows about them, they stop working. Same thing with the 'January effect' and a million other false predictors.

I wonder if Hulbert is tracking the performance of this newletter. To paraphrase the late Forbes, "Its easier to make money in the market selling newsletters than following them".

 

[Dawg52]

I get in from a nice day on the golf course and I see were down 400 points. What in the frig happened today? I'm getting sick of this crap. One of theses days I'm going to just go with fixed income like my parents and be done with this crap. They did fine without stocks and I think I can too. Hell with it.

 

[dex]

I'm going to begin buying Vanguard's Emerging Markets Fund on Monday - I'll avg into it over the next year or less.

I'll be adding to my commodies fund next week also.

I think the future of investing (positive returns) is outside the USA.

 

[REWahoo]

Dawg, take a deep breath and think about those people who see this as a buying opportunity - both of them.

You've been around long enough to know this is nothing more than another 'thrill hill' on the market rollercoaster. Put both arms above your head and say "Wheeeeeee....!!!!"

 

[Dawg52]

Dawg, take a deep breath and think about those people who see this as a buying opportunity - both of them.

Maybe I can talk one of them into buying mine.

 

[RockOn]

I get in from a nice day on the golf course and I see were down 400 points. What in the frig happened today? I'm getting sick of this crap. One of theses days I'm going to just go with fixed income like my parents and be done with this crap. They did fine without stocks and I think I can too. Hell with it.

Downward Volatility make SPIA's look pretty nice!

 

[Khan]

Time to buy the gold and the guns and the ammo and years of canned food, and pass the foil hats -- it's apocalypse time again!

Is the stuff left over from Y2K still good?

 

[innova]

Put your smiles on people we just got handed another discount coupon!

Downward Volatility make SPIA's look pretty nice!

I'll pass. Maybe when I'm older...

I think the future of investing (positive returns) is outside the USA.

I get in from a nice day on the golf course and I see were down 400 points. What in the frig happened today? I'm getting sick of this crap. One of theses days I'm going to just go with fixed income like my parents and be done with this crap. They did fine without stocks and I think I can too. Hell with it.

These kind of statements make us buy and holders cackle with glee. Our current situation is nothing like the 70's, which was nothing like the 30's in terms of impact. The more people panic, the better my long-term results will be - so please, by all means sell everything now.

In my paternal tone, I'd remind you that you should take a look at your allocation and your need to take risk. If you adjust your plan now based on whatever dire news you perceive, you will be guaranteed to underperform long term. So ditch your plan at your own peril.

I highly recommend you read this article to gain some perspective.

Bear Markets: A Necessary Evil - Seeking Alpha

 

[rs0460a]

Downward Volatility make SPIA's look pretty nice!

Sorry, I could not resist ....

1 year anniversary of my (and DW's) SPIA. 27 years of guaranteed (I bet Fidelity is still here, in some form) income still to come - more if I/she lives longer ).

My 10% investment (of retirement funds) last year int the SPIA has risen to around 15% (since the other 90% of 60/40 have gone down in value). OK, sombody will argue "that's not the way to look at it". Hey, it's my (our) money - I can look at it however I wish!

- Ron

 

[OAG]

Steady as she goes: Up 6.01% last year and just about 3% year to date. Kind of reminds me of Mr. Greenspan - you can retire on fixed returns, if you have enough of them. Not exactly what he said but close.

 

[W2R]

I get in from a nice day on the golf course and I see were down 400 points. What in the frig happened today? I'm getting sick of this crap. One of theses days I'm going to just go with fixed income like my parents and be done with this crap. They did fine without stocks and I think I can too. Hell with it.

Dawg, I feel your pain! Honest. I think a lot of us are. Maybe not as much, but hey it's no fun to watch this kind of plunge. But remember how bad you felt last time? Maybe not so bad this time.

You know, you don't have to get rid of ALL of your stocks. Just some of them, which you will do if you simply adjust your AA a little bit; more bonds/cash, less stocks. This rollercoaster year is a really good one for getting your AA tweaked to exactly where it needs to be, to let you sleep at night.

Naturally, it's better to sell high so you might not want to sell right this moment.

 

[Midpack]

I'm going to begin buying Vanguard's Emerging Markets Fund on Monday - I'll avg into it over the next year or less.

I'll be adding to my commodies fund next week also.

I think the future of investing (positive returns) is outside the USA.

I increased my VGENX a few months ago, and increased my VEIEX position by 50% last week, so I'm with you. I also took bonds from 20% to 24% overall.

 

[cyclone6]

How about a little market-neutral in the mix? Or maybe a lot...

I already have a sizable amount of HSGFX (Hussman strategic growth) - a long/short fund that has never (yet!) had a losing year. I also own about 100k of HSTRX (Hussman strategic total return) - his fixed income/gold offering (also has never had a losing year - yet!).

The longer I watch the market, the more I'm leaning towards just putting all of it into these 2 funds - 60% HSGFX and 40% HSTRX. He varies defensive stances based on historical measures of valuation.

I simply believe that anyone who believes that valuations don't matter have their heads buried in the sand. And, as Buffet has said, not losing a lot of money is often more important than making money.

 

[Dawg52]

Put your smiles on people we just got handed another discount coupon!

So ditch your plan at your own peril.

My portfolio took a nice nose dive today. Not the kind of discount I enjoy. And I will adjust my portfolio as I see fit. But thanks for the advice.

 

[W2R]

Mine went down 1.1%.

The decrease seemed pretty universal. Even "pssst...Wellesley!" went down, though not as much as some others. In my portfolio only VFSTX Short Term Invesment-Gr Bonds went up, and that was only by one lousy penny to what it was on Wednesday.

I would really like to buy more Vanguard equity funds at these prices, but if I try to buy now I think it will be at the prices at Monday's close, not today's close. With my luck the market would pop back up Monday - - that's what happened to me the last time I tried to be clever like that.

 

[FIREd]

I am supposed to VCA into my taxable account on Monday. Right now my spreadsheet is telling me to buy international equities, US large caps, and US bonds and to stay put on REITS, US small caps, cash and foreign bonds. The position which needs the most support right now is emerging markets (VEIEX for me). The position which needs the least support is US small caps (I aggressively added to that position between 11/2007 and 04/2008 ).

Down 1.6% today.

 

[statsman]

Even with a very conservative portfolio, I figure to be down 0.7% today. The only saving grace is that I estimate to be about even since Memorial Day.

 

[haha]

If you adjust your plan now based on whatever dire news you perceive, you will be guaranteed to underperform long term. So ditch your plan at your own peril.

If you are in AA, you have to work your plan. That has been proven over and over. And probably the same if you are getting up every day and have to go out and sell some life insurance.

But I really don't know where it is proven that the only way for a retired person to invest is to buy and hold a random assortment of stocks.

Why should it be so? It may work, and it may not. Your statement about today being better than the 70s or the early 30s is true-so far.

BTW, see my post from yesterday:

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/current-dow-industrials-technical-position-36173.html

I do hold a lot of equities, but the dividend yield is enough that I shouldn't have to make any withdrawals. Still not great; I cannot see why any retired person would want her portfolio to lose quoted value, unless her partner is still working or she is receiving cash inflows from outside the portfolio.

Ha

 

[Bestwifeever]

Year to date, down 2.3 as of tonight. Down 0.27 percent since yesterday, thanks to 63 percent of portfolio spread equally among money market, bond index fund, and target 2010 retirement fund, which were virtually unaffected by today's drop.

Since January 1, I have moved some money into bonds and money market from international, large cap blend, and small-midcap growth funds so only have 22 percent of portfolio spread among those. Remaining 15 percent is in Wellington. We will probably stay at this allocation well into retirement, which ideally is 30 months away--but there could be a forced retirement sooner, and this is the risk level we can sleep with.

(Why, yes, Milton, I am well aware that a preposition the preceding sentence ended with.)

 

[innova]

My portfolio took a nice nose dive today. Not the kind of discount I enjoy.

What is your investment time horizon? One day? One week?

Getting bent out of shape over a single day tumble is ridiculous. At the very least, it is a good indicator your portfolio is not well matched to your need, ability, and willingness to take risk.

And I will adjust my portfolio as I see fit.

I hope that doesn't mean selling low and bailing into cash/bonds at this point, but rather following your predetermined plan and not modifying it because a single down day in the market.

But I really don't know where it is proven that the only way for a retired person to invest is to buy and hold a random assortment of stocks.

Not sure what you mean. I hold index funds, is that what you are getting at?

I do hold a lot of equities, but the dividend yield is enough that I shouldn't have to make any withdrawals. Still not great; I cannot see why any retired person would want her portfolio to lose quoted value, unless her partner is still working or she is receiving cash inflows from outside the portfolio.

Nobody wants to lose any value - but when you are in the market that happens. You can't have return without risk. Even for a retired person, the portfolio time horizon is not and should not be one day, or one week, but rather the same long-term view.

It sounds like you are of the school of 'spend the dividends, don't touch the principal'. I subscribe to total growth of the portfolio theory (with rebalancing).

I use a proper bond allocation to balance my risk tolerance, rather than trying to own nondiversifiable risk through individual, dividend-paying equities. I suspect I'll be doing the same when I retire.

 

[Dawg52]

What is your investment time horizon? One day? One week?

Getting bent out of shape over a single day tumble is ridiculous. At the very least, it is a good indicator your portfolio is not well matched to your need, ability, and willingness to take risk.

Bingo. Screw stocks.