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Old 04-02-2008, 08:19 PM   #121
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don't know where the market is going to be next week but i'm almost positive that this is a sucker rally

when you get past all the charts and talking heads, there is no leadership. a real rally and a start to a new bull market is supposed to have leading stocks going up on very heavy volume. think Google, Apple, Sandisk, RIMM, Genentech, homebuilders from the last bull leg as well as a lot of the energy companies like Apache that went up big.

i scan the list of stocks going up on heavy volume every few days and i don't see any potential leaders. these are supposed to be companies growing revenues and earnings at high double digit rates as well as return on equity over 20% and define the economy and the stocks people talk about in the upcoming bull leg
I'm never that confident, still I hope you are right. I want to average in my cash at lower levels.
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Old 04-02-2008, 09:46 PM   #122
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I'm never that confident, still I hope you are right. I want to average in my cash at lower levels.
I second that!

DD
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Old 04-03-2008, 07:42 PM   #123
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i'm reading my technical analysis book, the chapter on candlestick charting. i think we are going to have a 1% or more down day tomorrow
Sorry, no cigar this time!
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Old 04-03-2008, 07:54 PM   #124
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Sorry, no cigar this time!
Come on was only 1.16 % off on the dow cut the charts a breat
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Old 04-11-2008, 02:09 PM   #125
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i've been busy for a little while, how is the market doing lately?
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Old 04-11-2008, 02:14 PM   #126
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but i'm almost positive that this is a sucker rally
10 years from now it won't matter if it is, or it isn't. That is why the long-term mindset folk here collectively roll their eyes at these types of statements.
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Old 04-11-2008, 02:32 PM   #127
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I keep buying. Probably because Im ignorant and just a sucker. Oh well at least Ill go down swinging
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Old 04-11-2008, 02:38 PM   #128
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10 years from now it won't matter if it is, or it isn't. That is why the long-term mindset folk here collectively roll their eyes at these types of statements.
my goal is to outperform the sp500 by 1% a year

long term is anyone's guess. the Elliot Wave cult is saying we are at the end of the 200 year grand supercycle and we are going to have the mother of all busts. google will tell you the details, but the Elliot Wave cult believes that all stock market moves are a 5 point up move followed by a 3 point down move. not points like in percent, but kind of like Zeus's lightning bolt. they believe that you see this pattern in daily charts and all the way up to the lifetime chart of the stock market.

supposedly we are at the peak now. i'm reading The House of Morgan and there are some parallels between the 1840's and today, foreigners lent us money and we don't want to pay it back
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Old 04-11-2008, 02:46 PM   #129
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I keep buying. Probably because Im ignorant and just a sucker. Oh well at least Ill go down swinging
Looks like stocks are on sale again today, don't miss out on your share. I won't be able to back the truck up again until the 15th.

DD
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Old 04-11-2008, 02:53 PM   #130
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my goal is to outperform the sp500 by 1% a year
No problem.

20% Total bond
40% Total US
40% Total International

Done

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Elliot Wave cult is saying we are at the end of the 200 year grand supercycle and we are going to have the mother of all busts. google will tell you the details, but the Elliot Wave cult believes that all stock market moves are a 5 point up move followed by a 3 point down move. not points like in percent, but kind of like Zeus's lightning bolt. they believe that you see this pattern in daily charts and all the way up to the lifetime chart of the stock market.
Even if they are right, how is this actionable information? If I start calling for a huge bull run right now, I'll be right - it just may take 20 years to happen.

The problem with chart patterns is that as soon as everyone knows about them, they stop working. Same thing with the 'January effect' and a million other false predictors.

I wonder if Hulbert is tracking the performance of this newletter. To paraphrase the late Forbes, "Its easier to make money in the market selling newsletters than following them".
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Old 06-06-2008, 03:04 PM   #131
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I get in from a nice day on the golf course and I see were down 400 points. What in the frig happened today? I'm getting sick of this crap. One of theses days I'm going to just go with fixed income like my parents and be done with this crap. They did fine without stocks and I think I can too. Hell with it.
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Old 06-06-2008, 03:08 PM   #132
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I'm going to begin buying Vanguard's Emerging Markets Fund on Monday - I'll avg into it over the next year or less.

I'll be adding to my commodies fund next week also.

I think the future of investing (positive returns) is outside the USA.
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Old 06-06-2008, 03:10 PM   #133
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Dawg, take a deep breath and think about those people who see this as a buying opportunity - both of them.

You've been around long enough to know this is nothing more than another 'thrill hill' on the market rollercoaster. Put both arms above your head and say "Wheeeeeee....!!!!"
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Old 06-06-2008, 03:17 PM   #134
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Dawg, take a deep breath and think about those people who see this as a buying opportunity - both of them.
Maybe I can talk one of them into buying mine.
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Old 06-06-2008, 03:19 PM   #135
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I get in from a nice day on the golf course and I see were down 400 points. What in the frig happened today? I'm getting sick of this crap. One of theses days I'm going to just go with fixed income like my parents and be done with this crap. They did fine without stocks and I think I can too. Hell with it.
Downward Volatility make SPIA's look pretty nice!
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Old 06-06-2008, 03:49 PM   #136
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Time to buy the gold and the guns and the ammo and years of canned food, and pass the foil hats -- it's apocalypse time again!
Is the stuff left over from Y2K still good?
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Old 06-06-2008, 04:02 PM   #137
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Put your smiles on people we just got handed another discount coupon!

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Downward Volatility make SPIA's look pretty nice!
I'll pass. Maybe when I'm older...

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I think the future of investing (positive returns) is outside the USA.
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I get in from a nice day on the golf course and I see were down 400 points. What in the frig happened today? I'm getting sick of this crap. One of theses days I'm going to just go with fixed income like my parents and be done with this crap. They did fine without stocks and I think I can too. Hell with it.
These kind of statements make us buy and holders cackle with glee. Our current situation is nothing like the 70's, which was nothing like the 30's in terms of impact. The more people panic, the better my long-term results will be - so please, by all means sell everything now.

In my paternal tone, I'd remind you that you should take a look at your allocation and your need to take risk. If you adjust your plan now based on whatever dire news you perceive, you will be guaranteed to underperform long term. So ditch your plan at your own peril.

I highly recommend you read this article to gain some perspective.

Bear Markets: A Necessary Evil - Seeking Alpha
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Old 06-06-2008, 04:03 PM   #138
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Downward Volatility make SPIA's look pretty nice!
Sorry, I could not resist ....

1 year anniversary of my (and DW's) SPIA. 27 years of guaranteed (I bet Fidelity is still here, in some form) income still to come - more if I/she lives longer ).

My 10% investment (of retirement funds) last year int the SPIA has risen to around 15% (since the other 90% of 60/40 have gone down in value). OK, sombody will argue "that's not the way to look at it". Hey, it's my (our) money - I can look at it however I wish!

- Ron
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Old 06-06-2008, 04:32 PM   #139
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Steady as she goes: Up 6.01% last year and just about 3% year to date. Kind of reminds me of Mr. Greenspan - you can retire on fixed returns, if you have enough of them. Not exactly what he said but close.
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Old 06-06-2008, 04:42 PM   #140
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I get in from a nice day on the golf course and I see were down 400 points. What in the frig happened today? I'm getting sick of this crap. One of theses days I'm going to just go with fixed income like my parents and be done with this crap. They did fine without stocks and I think I can too. Hell with it.
Dawg, I feel your pain! Honest. I think a lot of us are. Maybe not as much, but hey it's no fun to watch this kind of plunge. But remember how bad you felt last time? Maybe not so bad this time.

You know, you don't have to get rid of ALL of your stocks. Just some of them, which you will do if you simply adjust your AA a little bit; more bonds/cash, less stocks. This rollercoaster year is a really good one for getting your AA tweaked to exactly where it needs to be, to let you sleep at night.

Naturally, it's better to sell high so you might not want to sell right this moment.
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