|
|
03-09-2008, 08:47 AM
|
#61
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Northern Illinois
Posts: 16,543
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slarty
I think we're having a news induced recession. The extreme fear in the news seems to have come before the data. I guess that if we all try hard enough and stop buying things we could slow it even further.
|
We could know if we're technically in a recession as soon as March 27th. That's the date that the final report of 4th qtr GDP comes out. Preliminary numbers are 0.6% increase for 4th qtr. If the final report comes out negative, and the 1st qtr is negative(I'd bet it is), then we're in a recession. If the 4th qtr remains positive, we'll have to wait and see if 1st and 2d qtr GDP growth is negative.
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
03-09-2008, 08:48 AM
|
#62
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Northern Illinois
Posts: 16,543
|
|
|
|
03-09-2008, 09:09 AM
|
#63
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,203
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Razor
Last 3 Months1.25% 1 Year4.57% 3 Year Annualized4.26%
It is JP Morgan 401K Fund. I don't know if it's available outside deferred plan. I sure slept better after I got out of stocks for awhile.
|
My heavy in stock funds portfolio is up .4% 1 year, and 8.3% 3 year and 13.0 5 year.... (don't have 3 months, but it is DOWN)....
So, is sleeping better really that good?
|
|
|
03-09-2008, 09:29 AM
|
#64
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 488
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud
My heavy in stock funds portfolio is up .4% 1 year, and 8.3% 3 year and 13.0 5 year.... (don't have 3 months, but it is DOWN)....
So, is sleeping better really that good?
|
That's the stable value fund return, not mine.
Yes sleeping better is good, because I had all my money in the stock fund up until August of last year. You see I missed the 16% drop. My return is up more than 15% for last 52 weeks and still moving positive. I expect a substantial drop in the market in '08 so I will probably sleep even better not to be part of that slide.
Back when the DOT com bubble was peaking I was going to get out of stocks but my financial advisor told me to stay in so I didn't miss out. After losing 40% of my retirement and waiting 5 years to get back to even I decided to make my own decisions. When it's pretty obvious when stocks are high and the economy is ready to tank it's my preference to get out of stocks for awhile..
|
|
|
03-09-2008, 09:57 AM
|
#65
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Razor
... I had all my money in the stock fund up until August of last year. ...I expect a substantial drop in the market in '08 so I will probably sleep even better not to be part of that slide.
|
I asked this earlier and didn't see a response. What will you do if the market doesn't continue to slide, but has already hit a low and begins to climb? When will you get back in?
__________________
Numbers is hard
|
|
|
03-09-2008, 10:11 AM
|
#66
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 488
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
I asked this earlier and didn't see a response. What will you do if the market doesn't continue to slide, but has already hit a low and begins to climb? When will you get back in?
|
I am probably not going to do anything for six months. If something happens that leads me to believe prosperity is ahead I will get back in. Right now I don't see another housing boom or technology explosion in the near future. I honestly believe we are in for some tough times the next few years.
The DOW was close to 14000 when I got out of the stock fund so I do have some room to work with. At this point in my life I am satisfied with any gain, just can't handle a big loss like before, too close to retirement.
|
|
|
03-09-2008, 11:36 AM
|
#67
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Razor
I am probably not going to do anything for six months. If something happens that leads me to believe prosperity is ahead I will get back in. Right now I don't see another housing boom or technology explosion in the near future. I honestly believe we are in for some tough times the next few years.
The DOW was close to 14000 when I got out of the stock fund so I do have some room to work with. At this point in my life I am satisfied with any gain, just can't handle a big loss like before, too close to retirement.
|
So what point determines when you get back in? When your gut tells you? When the indexes get to a certain point? Any kind of metric?
|
|
|
03-09-2008, 12:12 PM
|
#68
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 488
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger
So what point determines when you get back in? When your gut tells you? When the indexes get to a certain point? Any kind of metric?
|
I work in the housing industry and when it looks like the housing market is going to stabilize, housing starts rise, our analysts forecast increase demand for new homes, US car companies start making a profit, energy prices drop, and the value of the dollar rises I will get back in.
Or I may put some back in when the DOW reaches 10,000, 9,000, 8000.
I really haven't decided for sure yet.
|
|
|
03-11-2008, 07:01 AM
|
#69
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
|
damn you Fed, damn you
my shorts were doing so well
|
|
|
03-11-2008, 07:18 AM
|
#70
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
damn you Fed, damn you
my shorts were doing so well
|
God Bless them. No sticking my head in the oven today.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
|
|
|
03-11-2008, 07:24 AM
|
#71
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,473
|
Oh pooh. Serves me right for not checking the news before buying equity funds. Guess it won't matter in 40 years, but this is still aggravating.
I'm happy for you though, Dawg52! I can imagine this must be easing your mind a bit.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
|
|
|
03-11-2008, 07:27 AM
|
#72
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
|
no biggie
they cut the discount rate in august and we all know what happened since then. might just lock in my slimmer profits today just in case
|
|
|
03-11-2008, 07:33 AM
|
#73
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire
Oh pooh. Serves me right for not checking the news before buying equity funds. Guess it won't matter in 40 years, but this is still aggravating.
I'm happy for you though, Dawg52! I can imagine this must be easing your mind a bit.
|
Hard to time it perfectly. Who knows, some other news might come out today and it all goes away.
I'm ok. I restocked the bar so I'm prepared for anything.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
|
|
|
03-11-2008, 07:48 AM
|
#74
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,473
|
Good idea. We probably will not be completely out of the woods for some time.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
|
|
|
03-11-2008, 07:49 AM
|
#75
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
|
i get around 2220 as the magic line of resistance for the nasdaq
|
|
|
03-11-2008, 07:54 AM
|
#76
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,473
|
Jonathan Hoenig at Smartmoney.com had these sobering words to say:
Quote:
...there are virtually no equities showing strength at present. With such widespread weakness, one could easily fashion an argument that stocks are oversold and due for a bounce. Still, markets tend not to decline sharply because they're poised to thunder up to new highs. There's been some serious damage done that will take, at minimum, months to rebuild.
|
No Signs of End to Real Estate, Banking Crises (Citigroup, Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, Countrywide Financial, Washington Mutual) | SmartMoney.com
If he's right, then Dawg52 will need to keep his spirits up (so to speak). On the other hand, my own crystal ball is still not functioning at all well. I would be perfectly happy if we now proceeded to have a nice runup.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
|
|
|
03-11-2008, 10:48 AM
|
#77
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
|
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
|
|
|
03-11-2008, 10:50 AM
|
#78
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
|
BTW, Dow 8000?? That's pretty funny.........
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
|
|
|
03-11-2008, 10:51 AM
|
#79
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
|
so far the day is pretty bearish, but 3pm is when the institutional money starts flowing and we'll see what happens. so far i'm glad i didn't sell my QID out of emotion
|
|
|
03-11-2008, 01:25 PM
|
#80
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 488
|
"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Tuesday afternoon as investors welcomed news that the Federal Reserve will lend up to $200 billion to banks and lenders as a means of loosening up tight credit markets."
Seeing as our country is 9 trillion in debt, where does the FED get the 200 billion to lend? Do they just print more? I really don't know how it works.
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|