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03-08-2008, 09:30 AM
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#2
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 123
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Have the cover stories of Newsweek or Time said we are in a recession yet? I haven't checked.
If they have, it is time to buy stocks.
__________________
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Winston Churchill
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03-08-2008, 09:42 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 3,080
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A reasonably good article in this week's Standard and Poor's The Outlook (available at your library or from your broker) describes 3 scenarios about the recession we are already in. They describe what they think is the most probable view, but then nicely describe a gloomier 20% downturn from here and a rosier 20% upturn from here. My synopsis of the article is that everything will hinge on oil prices.
I will note that Dow 8000 is not in any of the scenarios. 
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03-08-2008, 09:45 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: north of Kansas City
Posts: 6,191
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Whoopeee! Fear, Greed, Lust, Passion.
Football season is over - gonna buy a new pair of heavy gloves, beef up the checkbook and maybe try and catch some falling knives!
The snow hasn't melted and it's too early for a Spring kayak sale at Dick's Sporting goods in Kansas City.
heh heh heh - I wonder if I put my ear to the ground I hear my balanced index getting auto rebalanced at Vanguard. Probably too far away.    .
At DOW 7500 - back up the truck! Bet the farm?
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03-08-2008, 09:50 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: DFW
Posts: 6,334
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No, the Dow is actually going negative, which will consume all matter and energy in the universe...
Let's see you diversify that away... 
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
"...but do feel free to assert your duly noted opinion on this subject again without benefit of reference or provision of additional information..."
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03-08-2008, 10:03 AM
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#6
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 10,399
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR
No, the Dow is actually going negative, which will consume all matter and energy in the universe...
Let's see you diversify that away... |
I knew it! I just knew it!  We're doomed! Time to take everything out of the market and spend it all on seeds and survival gear.
__________________
"Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harborless immensities." - - H. Melville, 1851
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03-08-2008, 12:47 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,377
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mark500
Have the cover stories of Newsweek or Time said we are in a recession yet? I haven't checked.
If they have, it is time to buy stocks.
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Who needs Newsweek? Isn't a "DOW 8000" thread enough to tell you we've hit the bottom?
Doesn't anybody remember how this board marked the top?
Record Dow! Whee!
__________________
Favorite ERF quote: "I'm not going to waste my time on someone who's more interested in being stubborn or obtuse or intolerant." -- Nords
Favorite ERF error message: "Sorry Nords is a moderator/admin and you are not allowed to ignore him or her."
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03-08-2008, 09:56 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 3,052
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__________________
Planned FIRE Summer 2011
Disclaimer: I make no warranty or guarantee about the accuracy or completeness of this information. I am not a financial planner, my comments only represent my opinion.
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03-08-2008, 10:05 AM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 4,261
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How did you choose dow 8000? Why not dow 5000 for added shock value?
__________________
Full time wuss............
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03-08-2008, 10:08 AM
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#10
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 7,253
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Time to buy the gold and the guns and the ammo and years of canned food, and pass the foil hats -- it's apocalypse time again!
The good thing is that the more people like this there are, the fewer sellers are left into the market. This has long been a pretty reliable contrarian indicator -- excessive apocalyptic doom and gloom has tended to be a sign that the bottom is near.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-08-2008, 10:10 AM
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#11
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 10,399
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Time to buy the gold and the guns and the ammo and years of canned food, and pass the foil hats -- it's apocalypse time again!
The good thing is that the more people like this there are, the fewer sellers are left into the market. This has long been a pretty reliable contrarian indicator -- excessive apocalyptic doom and gloom has tended to be a sign that the bottom is near.
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Oh thank goodness. I am ready for some good news, for a change! Bring on the market boom of 2008, and pass the champagne.
__________________
"Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harborless immensities." - - H. Melville, 1851
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03-08-2008, 10:20 AM
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#12
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 939
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While I'm generally a Bull, I think the market is at a point (to quote Rumsfeld) where we know the "known unknowns" but we don't yet know the "unknown unknowns" so anythings still possible  .
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
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03-08-2008, 10:26 AM
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#13
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 987
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When our 4-5 year cash position (I'm retired) is exhausted.
While I'm sure it means a lot (to a lot of people), in my/ DW's case it currently dosen't.
It's good to be old ...
- Ron
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03-08-2008, 10:37 AM
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#14
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 165
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Dow 8000 wouldn't be all that bad -- In fact, for young folks such as myself, Dow 8000 sounds very attractive!
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03-08-2008, 10:48 AM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 2,490
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Time to buy the gold and the guns and the ammo and years of canned food, and pass the foil hats -- it's apocalypse time again!
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Silly me, I just sold my gold and and pocketed the 140% profit I made on it... But maybe I'll use the money to buy canned food and ammo!
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06-06-2008, 03:49 PM
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#16
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Greater Dayton area
Posts: 4,744
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Time to buy the gold and the guns and the ammo and years of canned food, and pass the foil hats -- it's apocalypse time again!
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Is the stuff left over from Y2K still good?
__________________
"Knowin' no one nowhere's gonna miss us when we're gone..."
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06-06-2008, 04:02 PM
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#17
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 180
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Put your smiles on people we just got handed another discount coupon!
Quote:
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Downward Volatility make SPIA's look pretty nice!
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I'll pass. Maybe when I'm older...
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I think the future of investing (positive returns) is outside the USA.
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I get in from a nice day on the golf course and I see were down 400 points. What in the frig happened today? I'm getting sick of this crap. One of theses days I'm going to just go with fixed income like my parents and be done with this crap. They did fine without stocks and I think I can too. Hell with it.
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These kind of statements make us buy and holders cackle with glee. Our current situation is nothing like the 70's, which was nothing like the 30's in terms of impact. The more people panic, the better my long-term results will be - so please, by all means sell everything now.
In my paternal tone, I'd remind you that you should take a look at your allocation and your need to take risk. If you adjust your plan now based on whatever dire news you perceive, you will be guaranteed to underperform long term. So ditch your plan at your own peril.
I highly recommend you read this article to gain some perspective.
Bear Markets: A Necessary Evil - Seeking Alpha
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06-06-2008, 05:17 PM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 4,261
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Quote:
Originally Posted by innova
Put your smiles on people we just got handed another discount coupon!
So ditch your plan at your own peril.
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My portfolio took a nice nose dive today. Not the kind of discount I enjoy. And I will adjust my portfolio as I see fit. But thanks for the advice.
__________________
Full time wuss............
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06-06-2008, 05:25 PM
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#19
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 10,399
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Mine went down 1.1%.
The decrease seemed pretty universal. Even "pssst...Wellesley!" went down, though not as much as some others. In my portfolio only VFSTX Short Term Invesment-Gr Bonds went up, and that was only by one lousy penny to what it was on Wednesday.
I would really like to buy more Vanguard equity funds at these prices, but if I try to buy now I think it will be at the prices at Monday's close, not today's close. With my luck the market would pop back up Monday - - that's what happened to me the last time I tried to be clever like that. 
__________________
"Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harborless immensities." - - H. Melville, 1851
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06-06-2008, 06:03 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 10,802
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Quote:
Originally Posted by innova
If you adjust your plan now based on whatever dire news you perceive, you will be guaranteed to underperform long term. So ditch your plan at your own peril.
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If you are in AA, you have to work your plan. That has been proven over and over. And probably the same if you are getting up every day and have to go out and sell some life insurance.
But I really don't know where it is proven that the only way for a retired person to invest is to buy and hold a random assortment of stocks.
Why should it be so? It may work, and it may not. Your statement about today being better than the 70s or the early 30s is true-so far.
BTW, see my post from yesterday:
Current Dow Industrials Technical Position
I do hold a lot of equities, but the dividend yield is enough that I shouldn't have to make any withdrawals. Still not great; I cannot see why any retired person would want her portfolio to lose quoted value, unless her partner is still working or she is receiving cash inflows from outside the portfolio.
Ha
__________________
Above all, humans are political animals.
Nota bene: I am either a moron or an idiot. So don't pay any attention to anything I say or you are one too. Please consult your financial advisor, astrologer or proctologist for whatever it may be that you are seeking.
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