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03-08-2008, 08:30 AM
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#2
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 146
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Have the cover stories of Newsweek or Time said we are in a recession yet? I haven't checked.
If they have, it is time to buy stocks.
__________________
The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of misery.
Winston Churchill
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03-08-2008, 08:42 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 10,252
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A reasonably good article in this week's Standard and Poor's The Outlook (available at your library or from your broker) describes 3 scenarios about the recession we are already in. They describe what they think is the most probable view, but then nicely describe a gloomier 20% downturn from here and a rosier 20% upturn from here. My synopsis of the article is that everything will hinge on oil prices.
I will note that Dow 8000 is not in any of the scenarios. 
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03-08-2008, 08:45 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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Whoopeee! Fear, Greed, Lust, Passion.
Football season is over - gonna buy a new pair of heavy gloves, beef up the checkbook and maybe try and catch some falling knives!
The snow hasn't melted and it's too early for a Spring kayak sale at Dick's Sporting goods in Kansas City.
heh heh heh - I wonder if I put my ear to the ground I hear my balanced index getting auto rebalanced at Vanguard. Probably too far away.    .
At DOW 7500 - back up the truck! Bet the farm?
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03-08-2008, 08:50 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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No, the Dow is actually going negative, which will consume all matter and energy in the universe...
Let's see you diversify that away... 
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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03-08-2008, 08:56 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
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03-08-2008, 09:03 AM
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#7
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,498
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR
No, the Dow is actually going negative, which will consume all matter and energy in the universe...
Let's see you diversify that away... |
I knew it! I just knew it!  We're doomed! Time to take everything out of the market and spend it all on seeds and survival gear.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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03-08-2008, 09:05 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,071
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How did you choose dow 8000? Why not dow 5000 for added shock value?
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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03-08-2008, 09:08 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Time to buy the gold and the guns and the ammo and years of canned food, and pass the foil hats -- it's apocalypse time again!
The good thing is that the more people like this there are, the fewer sellers are left into the market. This has long been a pretty reliable contrarian indicator -- excessive apocalyptic doom and gloom has tended to be a sign that the bottom is near.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-08-2008, 09:10 AM
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#10
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,498
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Time to buy the gold and the guns and the ammo and years of canned food, and pass the foil hats -- it's apocalypse time again!
The good thing is that the more people like this there are, the fewer sellers are left into the market. This has long been a pretty reliable contrarian indicator -- excessive apocalyptic doom and gloom has tended to be a sign that the bottom is near.
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Oh thank goodness. I am ready for some good news, for a change! Bring on the market boom of 2008, and pass the champagne.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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03-08-2008, 09:20 AM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
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While I'm generally a Bull, I think the market is at a point (to quote Rumsfeld) where we know the "known unknowns" but we don't yet know the "unknown unknowns" so anythings still possible  .
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
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03-08-2008, 09:25 AM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,433
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I don't pay much attention to the DOW but my projection of the S&P 500 is between 1100 and 1150.
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03-08-2008, 09:26 AM
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#13
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 987
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Wake me up....
When our 4-5 year cash position (I'm retired) is exhausted.
While I'm sure it means a lot (to a lot of people), in my/ DW's case it currently dosen't.
It's good to be old ...
- Ron
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03-08-2008, 09:37 AM
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#14
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 192
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Dow 8000 wouldn't be all that bad -- In fact, for young folks such as myself, Dow 8000 sounds very attractive!
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03-08-2008, 09:46 AM
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#15
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 984
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Absolutely amazing how not so bad (or even good) news can be spun so negatively by the media. The link in the article also shows unemployment rate of 4.8% which is very low by historical standards.
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03-08-2008, 09:48 AM
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#16
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Time to buy the gold and the guns and the ammo and years of canned food, and pass the foil hats -- it's apocalypse time again!
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Silly me, I just sold my gold and and pocketed the 140% profit I made on it... But maybe I'll use the money to buy canned food and ammo!
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03-08-2008, 09:55 AM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lakedog
Absolutely amazing how not so bad (or even good) news can be spun so negatively by the media. The link in the article also shows unemployment rate of 4.8% which is very low by historical standards.
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unemployment rate has been drifting down for decades, but stock prices go up on growth in the economy. 5.5% rate might seem low by historical standards but it will cause the economy to grow slower or even contract when you go up from 4.8%
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03-08-2008, 09:58 AM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lakedog
Absolutely amazing how not so bad (or even good) news can be spun so negatively by the media. The link in the article also shows unemployment rate of 4.8% which is very low by historical standards.
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I think that was primarily due to 450,000 people who stopped looking for work during that time period. At least that is what I read.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
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03-08-2008, 10:06 AM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 2,081
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While the rate, as measured, went down, many people simply 'stopped looking'.
Didn't the method of calculating the unemployment rate change not so long ago?
So while many fewer jobs are available, even fewr people are still looking for them.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
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03-08-2008, 10:11 AM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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that always cracks me up how people who stop looking means things are bad. maybe they have enough money to live on and just can't find a job that meets their exact standards.
all you FIRE people probably fall into this as well, shame on you for skewing the official numbers
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