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Dow at 15,000 just the start
Old 05-13-2013, 01:10 PM   #1
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Dow at 15,000 just the start

This is an interesting article from Fidelity. How many holes can we blow in it?

https://news.fidelity.com/news/artic...vesting-stocks
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Old 05-13-2013, 01:47 PM   #2
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It failed to mention Obamacare, Sequester, Benghazi, and Bigfoot.
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Old 05-13-2013, 01:52 PM   #3
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I dont want to shoot holes in this one ! I want this one to be the correct article !!
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Old 05-13-2013, 02:27 PM   #4
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I dont want to shoot holes in this one ! I want this one to be the correct article !!
It is the correct article for the next couple of years (or months)....
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Old 05-13-2013, 03:20 PM   #5
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Eh, any given threshold is "just the start". And, this time it's different. Just like every other time. And as a wise man once said, wherever you go, there you are. Or, something like that.
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Old 05-13-2013, 03:24 PM   #6
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Old 05-13-2013, 03:40 PM   #7
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What I find most interesting about these types of articles is that if stocks are up 15% YTD and the author is very bullish, then at the beginning of the year he had to be screaming buy, buy, buy! Where's that article?
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Old 05-13-2013, 03:43 PM   #8
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Eh, any given threshold is "just the start". And, this time it's different. Just like every other time. And as a wise man once said, wherever you go, there you are. Or, something like that.
I'm hoping its 1984 again. . .
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Old 05-13-2013, 05:33 PM   #9
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Eh, any given threshold is "just the start". And, this time it's different. Just like every other time. And as a wise man once said, wherever you go, there you are. Or, something like that.
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I'm hoping its 1984 again. . .
Out of curiosity, did you choose 1984 because that's when the big bull market started, or because that was the year when Buckaroo Banzai said the famous line Andre quoted?
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Old 05-13-2013, 06:11 PM   #10
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I would stay the course. People should stay the course, as they say on Bogleheads, with whatever AA they are comfortable with. Articles like this one don't make me change my mind.
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This is an interesting article from Fidelity. How many holes can we blow in it?

https://news.fidelity.com/news/artic...vesting-stocks
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Old 05-13-2013, 06:17 PM   #11
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What I find most interesting about these types of articles is that if stocks are up 15% YTD and the author is very bullish, then at the beginning of the year he had to be screaming buy, buy, buy! Where's that article?
I couldn't find beginning of the year. The earliest back I found was 3/22/13, an article listing 10 reasons why stocks are about to tumble.

At that time he wrote among other things:

Be careful of thinking that stocks are cheap based on forward projections that can and will move downward. The same goes for macro data, too; after all, we were in a recession and didnít even know it thanks to poor GDP forecasting and understatement of the true decline. So before you read too much into better forecasts for the second half of 2013 or into 2014, remember how quickly things can change.
10 signs your stocks are about to tumble - Jeff Reeves's Strength in Numbers - MarketWatch

Since then the Dow has gone up 4%, from 14,512 to 15,091.
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Old 05-13-2013, 06:17 PM   #12
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What I find most interesting about these types of articles is that if stocks are up 15% YTD and the author is very bullish, then at the beginning of the year he had to be screaming buy, buy, buy! Where's that article?
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Old 05-13-2013, 06:25 PM   #13
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Here's an interesting article from Time magazine in 1984 - two years after the start of that bull market - raising the possibility that it was over.

Of course, by most estimates it lasted another 16 years until 2000....

Is the Bull Market Over? - TIME
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Old 05-13-2013, 06:46 PM   #14
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The simple fact is, we don't know. I think it feels inflated to a lot of people because they don't realize that Wall Street and Main Street aren't as connected as they were in past bull runs, because the economy and workforce is so much more globalized now. So it feels inflated because we aren't directly seeing economic growth in terms of jobs and wage growth. We should be careful not to assume it can't last because the economy in the US, well, still mostly sucks. Large multinational corporations are less and less dependent on US consumers for earnings growth.
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Old 05-13-2013, 07:46 PM   #15
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Just the mere threat to slow down the increases of QE will seriously spook this market. If they stop or sell securities, watch out below.
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Old 05-13-2013, 08:12 PM   #16
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Old 05-14-2013, 08:41 AM   #17
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DOW 15000 is definitely the start of something...
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Old 05-14-2013, 01:33 PM   #18
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DOW 15000 is definitely the start of something...
I thinks it's all about energy. The US is finding gobs of oil and natural gas with economical ways to get it out. This trumps everything else. As long as the politicians don't torpedo it, I think the future is again as bright as the 90's. This could be a very nice ride for the next decade.
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Old 05-14-2013, 07:37 PM   #19
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I guess nobody believes in a new bull market. Great!!!!!!!!!! That is what makes new bull markets.

Buy long term bonds you non-believers......
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