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Old 10-09-2008, 01:15 PM   #21
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Couldn't find anything on points, but here are the worst 5 years in terms of % loss:

1931 -52.67%
1907 -37.73%
1930 -33.77%
1920 -32.90%
1937 -32.82%
The Dow is -31.26% YTD as I write this.

I like our chances to take out all except 1931.
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:25 PM   #22
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I'll go out on a limb and guess that we will end the year higher than we are now. My number for Dec 31st, 2008--

10,119

Yah heard it here first.

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The Dow is -31.26% YTD as I write this.

I like our chances to take out all except 1931.
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:30 PM   #23
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I updated my net worth graph last night....... It goes back for almost 5 years and until last November my net worth was growing despite being retired. I liked that. As of last night, net worth has retrogressed back to early 2006 levels. And that's without any inflation correction which would make it worse.
I will be updating my net worth graph on October 15 (just as I have updated that graph on the 15th of each month since 2001). My net worth has been pretty much flat for the past year (new savings having compensated for the losses in the stock market), but this month I expect to see a huge drop (-11% from Sept. 15, 2008 so far!!!) that might send my net worth back to where it is was in early 2007... From the high water mark of May 15, 2008, it would be a 16% drop.
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:34 PM   #24
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The Dow is -31.26% YTD as I write this.

I like our chances to take out all except 1931.
I don't think that YTD fugures are of much significance. What gives insight is drawdown from prior higher high.

Depending on the index you are using, that would be sometime last October. Or if you have daily figures from your own accounts they can be helpful, especially if you make a ratio between your experience and the index. Most of us who are living off a portfolio hit our highs sometime last October.

Ha
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Wow I have all the luck
Old 10-09-2008, 01:35 PM   #25
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Wow I have all the luck

Three of those years were in the depression and it seems we could finish the year with the largest % drop in the last 71 years. Given this an early retirement board I am guessing this is the worst drop in the life of all of us. I started my E/R this year which turned into a semi-retirement by choice 3 weeks later. Historically I have pretty bad luck but I didn't think I could single handedly upend Wall Street and U.S economy!
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:36 PM   #26
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Depending on the index you are using, that would be sometime last October. Or if you have daily figures from your own accounts they can be helpful, especially if you make a ratio between your experience and the index. Most of us who are living off a portfolio hit our highs sometime last October.
I know the exact date of my personal high -- the day I ignored the voices telling me to dump all my stocks -- October 31, 2007. A day which will live in infamy.
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:40 PM   #27
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I know the exact date of my personal high -- the day I ignored the voices telling me to dump all my stocks -- October 31, 2007. A day which will live in infamy.
The Undead were speaking to you.
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:40 PM   #28
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The Undead were speaking to you.
We still are...
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:41 PM   #29
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The Undead were speaking to you.
I hear undead people.
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:48 PM   #30
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I hear undead people.
Well, as long as you don't hear dead people, I guess that's ok...
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:55 PM   #31
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Undead - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:08 PM   #32
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The Dow is -31.26% YTD as I write this.

I like our chances to take out all except 1931.
Just eyeballing Google finance, looks like the Dow is down 36.24% since Oct 11. Wheeeeeee. and the S&P may settle below 950 by EOD. Double-Wheeeee
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:16 PM   #33
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1930 -33.77%
1931 -52.67%

Sooo - if Gramps went into 1930 with $100,000 in the market he started 1931 with $66,230 and then got smacked and ended 1931 with $31, 347 - less than a third of what he started with two years before?

Any of us doing that badly? Methinks Grandpa & Grannie were made of sterner stuff than us.
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:18 PM   #34
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Any of us doing that badly? Methinks Grandpa & Grannie were made of sterner stuff than us.
Not too many ordinary citizens were heavily invested in the stock market back then.
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:19 PM   #35
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Just eyeballing Google finance, looks like the Dow is down 36.24% since Oct 11. Wheeeeeee. and the S&P may settle below 950 by EOD. Double-Wheeeee
It has certainly been a market that rewards procrastination about buying. If I think something is cheap, I usually don't mess around, just hit the button for a market buy on a high volume stock., or pick anearby limit for a slower trading one.

Today I wanted HAL, but I saw that the S&P is making another dive down into the close- so I thought- hey, maybe I'll just wait a minute.

Already down another 5%!

If I am willing to wait one week, someone may pay me to take it off their hands.

Ha
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:20 PM   #36
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It has certainly been a market that rewards procrastination about buying. I fi thinksomething is cheap, I usually don't mess around, just hit the button for amarket buy on a high volume stock.
Agreed. I know I badly need to rebalance, but I just don't see much point of rushing into do it in this incredibly horrible market.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 10-09-2008, 02:21 PM   #37
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One of the many advantages of retirement is you don't have to wait until the weekend to be alcohol enhanced. Just ask Dawg54...
True. I just wonder what I'm gonna do when I can't afford beer any longer.
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:22 PM   #38
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True. I just wonder what I'm gonna do when I can't afford beer any longer.
Could be worse. Remember 1929 to 1932?

Prohibition.
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:23 PM   #39
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:24 PM   #40
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Could be worse. Remember 1929 to 1932?

Prohibition.
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