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Old 01-31-2009, 09:42 AM   #21
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Well, Warren Buffett sure did pretty well then.

A flat to down market isn't too good for indexers, but for a good value-oriented stock picker, those are fertile hunting grounds for good businesses at depressed prices.
As a lazy indexer, this can only mean that I'm now going to have to work at getting a good return. Dang!
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Old 01-31-2009, 09:47 AM   #22
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Dawg an all cd portfolio is great! Just make sure ya get enuff of them.
Groucho Marx, the famous comedian who purportedly once toured the New York Stock Exchange and held court with the floor traders after the closing bell. Knowing that Groucho was wealthy, one trader yelled out, "Hey Groucho, where do you invest your money?" "I keep my money in Treasury bonds," is what the leader of the Marx brothers reportedly replied. "They don't make you much money," a trader shouted back. "They do," Groucho said drolly, "if you have enough of them."
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Old 01-31-2009, 01:00 PM   #23
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Groucho Marx, the famous comedian who purportedly once toured the New York Stock Exchange and held court with the floor traders after the closing bell. Knowing that Groucho was wealthy, one trader yelled out, "Hey Groucho, where do you invest your money?" "I keep my money in Treasury bonds," is what the leader of the Marx brothers reportedly replied. "They don't make you much money," a trader shouted back. "They do," Groucho said drolly, "if you have enough of them."
Your story must have happened after the 1929 crash as Groucho Marx was heavily invested in margin during the 1929 crash and was wiped out along with many others. It was only his talent (and maybe Treasuries) that allowed him to regain his wealth in later years.

"1929 should have been a wonderful year for Groucho. He and his brothers had completed their first film, "The Cocoanuts," a filmed version of their stage show. However, two cataclysmic events occurred that year. In a personal tragedy, Groucho's mother, Minnie, died after suffering a severe stroke. Also in 1929, Groucho and his brothers lost virtually everything in the stock market crash that signalled the beginning of the Great Depression."

Source: “Marx Brothers biography You bet your life”

http://www.clown-ministry.com/index_...bet_your_life/


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Old 01-31-2009, 04:37 PM   #24
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Your story must have happened after the 1929 crash as Groucho Marx was heavily invested in margin during the 1929 crash and was wiped out along with many others. It was only his talent (and maybe Treasuries) that allowed him to regain his wealth in later years.

"1929 should have been a wonderful year for Groucho. He and his brothers had completed their first film, "The Cocoanuts," a filmed version of their stage show. However, two cataclysmic events occurred that year. In a personal tragedy, Groucho's mother, Minnie, died after suffering a severe stroke. Also in 1929, Groucho and his brothers lost virtually everything in the stock market crash that signalled the beginning of the Great Depression."

Source: “Marx Brothers biography You bet your life”

Groucho Marx biography | Marx Brothers | you bet your life! | clown ministry | History | Marx Brothers

Dang Bikerdude, this is amazing! The Groucho quote about treasuries is pretty widely quoted. Now we know the rest of the story
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Old 01-31-2009, 07:41 PM   #25
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Well, Warren Buffett sure did pretty well then.

A flat to down market isn't too good for indexers, but for a good value-oriented stock picker, those are fertile hunting grounds for good businesses at depressed prices.
Does one have to be a value oriented stock picker or would a value fund work just as well?
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Old 02-01-2009, 09:35 AM   #26
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I never wear a watch anymore. Since I have a cell phone with me at all times, why do I need a watch? Heresy or LBYM?
Same here, Midpack.
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75% of the time
Old 02-02-2009, 08:08 AM   #27
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75% of the time

I read this weekend that roughly 75% of the time January performance is an accurate predictor of coming years performance. January 2008 was the worst % slide in the S&P 500 for the month of January beating out January 1970 for the honors. But don't worry, many analysts believe that it will not be accurate this year given the large decline in the DOW and S&P in 2008.

Really, it's gong to be different this time
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Old 02-02-2009, 11:02 AM   #28
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I read this weekend that roughly 75% of the time January performance is an accurate predictor of coming years performance. January 2008 was the worst % slide in the S&P 500 for the month of January beating out January 1970 for the honors. But don't worry, many analysts believe that it will not be accurate this year given the large decline in the DOW and S&P in 2008.

Really, it's gong to be different this time
It would take time to work up the data, but as it is usually stated this "indicator" probably does not mean much. For example, if all the rest of 2009 went nowhere, the indicator would still have worked. Down January, down year. But all the loss would have already been booked by the end of January. We should compare January TR to the other 11 months TR. Then do all 11 other months the same way and see if there is any significant fifference.

The other problem is that the normal bullish bias of the stock market would inherently give about a 2/3 congruence between January and the full year, or for that matter between any other month and the year.


I don't see much to take to the bank in this little sample of data. Most of these anomalies fall apart on further examination, or as soon as someone publishes the so called indicator. As they should. Even minimal market efficiency would do away with anything this easy that could be reliably profitable.

Ha
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Old 02-02-2009, 01:22 PM   #29
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I don't see much to take to the bank in this little sample of data.
True. But forget Januaries, I'd sure like to take the returns of 1985 to 1999 to the bank right around now!
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