Same here, Midpack.
DOW - January as an indicator
- Thread starter shotgunner
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Same here, Midpack.
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shotgunner
Full time employment: Posting here.
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75% of the time
I read this weekend that roughly 75% of the time January performance is an accurate predictor of coming years performance. January 2008 was the worst % slide in the S&P 500 for the month of January beating out January 1970 for the honors. But don't worry, many analysts believe that it will not be accurate this year given the large decline in the DOW and S&P in 2008.
Really, it's gong to be different this time
I read this weekend that roughly 75% of the time January performance is an accurate predictor of coming years performance. January 2008 was the worst % slide in the S&P 500 for the month of January beating out January 1970 for the honors. But don't worry, many analysts believe that it will not be accurate this year given the large decline in the DOW and S&P in 2008.
Really, it's gong to be different this time
haha
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I read this weekend that roughly 75% of the time January performance is an accurate predictor of coming years performance. January 2008 was the worst % slide in the S&P 500 for the month of January beating out January 1970 for the honors. But don't worry, many analysts believe that it will not be accurate this year given the large decline in the DOW and S&P in 2008.
Really, it's gong to be different this time
It would take time to work up the data, but as it is usually stated this "indicator" probably does not mean much. For example, if all the rest of 2009 went nowhere, the indicator would still have worked. Down January, down year. But all the loss would have already been booked by the end of January. We should compare January TR to the other 11 months TR. Then do all 11 other months the same way and see if there is any significant fifference.
The other problem is that the normal bullish bias of the stock market would inherently give about a 2/3 congruence between January and the full year, or for that matter between any other month and the year.
I don't see much to take to the bank in this little sample of data. Most of these anomalies fall apart on further examination, or as soon as someone publishes the so called indicator. As they should. Even minimal market efficiency would do away with anything this easy that could be reliably profitable.
Ha
True. But forget Januaries, I'd sure like to take the returns of 1985 to 1999 to the bank right around now!
