Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: Your prediction for DOW 12/31/10
Below 8000 3 2.88%
8000 - 9500 6 5.77%
9500 - 10500 7 6.73%
10500 - 11500 33 31.73%
11500 - 12500 41 39.42%
Over 12500 14 13.46%
Voters: 104. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 04-15-2010, 08:18 PM   #21
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,436
No clue. But I hope the 12k predictions here are correct. I'll take the rest of my chips off the table if that happens.
__________________

__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-15-2010, 08:21 PM   #22
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
8500
__________________

__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2010, 08:27 PM   #23
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,884
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg52 View Post
No clue. But I hope the 12k predictions here are correct. I'll take the rest of my chips off the table if that happens.
You still have chips on the table? I thought you must have cashed them in a while back. Just joking. Anyway, I'll bet you are glad you're not all in money market this year. I sure am.

I made a very high prediction, but none of us really have a clue (except that multi-billionaire over there in the corner who doesn't say much).
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2010, 08:42 PM   #24
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
harley's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Following the nice weather
Posts: 6,427
Sorry, I got confused. The poll asks what the Dow will be at on 12/31/20. I thought it was just for fun, since nobody could have even the slightest clue. I should have figured it out by looking at the numbers. Too tired from working in the garden today, I guess.
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Will Rogers, or maybe Sam Clemens
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
harley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2010, 09:07 PM   #25
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
73ss454's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,378
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
8500
Sheeeesh, are you still pushing this gloom and doom?

Is this called "churn and earn"
__________________
73ss454 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2010, 09:12 PM   #26
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,884
Quote:
Originally Posted by harley View Post
Sorry, I got confused. The poll asks what the Dow will be at on 12/31/20. I thought it was just for fun, since nobody could have even the slightest clue. I should have figured it out by looking at the numbers. Too tired from working in the garden today, I guess.
Thanks for pointing that out. I took the liberty of correcting that typo for shotgunner.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2010, 09:25 PM   #27
Moderator
Ronstar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: A little ways southwest of Chicago
Posts: 9,351
I'll say 11505
__________________
Ronstar is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2010, 09:27 PM   #28
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 731
I can't remember which button I pushed in the poll! I think it might go above 12,000 but might be 9500 also. And I can live with either although I'd like to see it go up in 2011. I don't think it will drop below 9500 unless something catstrophic happens.

Even so, who was predicting over 11,000 by now when the Dow was 6600?
__________________
Retired July 2, 2010 at 62. My only regret is that I couldn't do it sooner.
thinker25 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2010, 09:33 PM   #29
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,884
Quote:
Originally Posted by thinker25 View Post
I can't remember which button I pushed in the poll! I think it might go above 12,000 but might be 9500 also. And I can live with either although I'd like to see it go up in 2011. I don't think it will drop below 9500 unless something catstrophic happens.

Even so, who was predicting over 11,000 by now when the Dow was 6600?
When the Dow was 6600, I was actually predicting that it would go down to about half that by the end of 2009. Apparently my approach to prediction is heavily influenced by (projected) persistence of recent trends.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2010, 09:35 PM   #30
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Spanky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,046
According to Jeremy Siegel, the Dow should reach 11,916 while the S&P 500 may rise to 1,300 by year end.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
Spanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2010, 10:03 PM   #31
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 63
I calculate 12345.67. Not to put too fine a point on it.
__________________
km4hr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 07:11 AM   #32
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
donheff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 8,642
We are a pretty bullish group. Irrational exuberance or rational expectations? I keep reading about the retail investors who pulled out last year and haven't gotten back in yet. Thank God for those folks.
__________________
Every man is, or hopes to be, an Idler. -- Samuel Johnson
donheff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 07:24 AM   #33
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
IndependentlyPoor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Austin
Posts: 1,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
When the Dow was 6600, I was actually predicting that it would go down to about half that by the end of 2009. Apparently my approach to prediction is heavily influenced by (projected) persistence of recent trends.
Last year, when the DOW was at its bottom, we were looking at 5 year investment returns of zero, nada, zip. At the time, before my small pension began, we were living entirely from our investments. A five year zero return meant that effectively, we had been spending principal for five years. What if it continued? Yikes!

The five year investment return chart is still there under the personal return tab of our mutual fund site to remind us of that nightmare time and of the amazing recovery.
return.gif
It turns out that the chart's earliest date corresponds to my retirement date and the time when the account was funded, so the 5 year returns begin at zero.

All's well that that ends well?
Dunno.
We didn't buy that condo we wanted (we rent). Missed opportunity? We cut back on our spending so that we were very close to living entirely from dividend income. We didn't sell anything from our plain-Jane, conservative index fund portfolio. On the other hand, we didn't rebalance when we should have either.

Predictions?
All I can say is that whatever the DOW is at year end, I will be worried... and a lot more cautious than before.
__________________
Start by admitting
from cradle to tomb
it isn't that long a stay.
IndependentlyPoor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 09:43 AM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,526
Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff View Post
We are a pretty bullish group. Irrational exuberance or rational expectations? I keep reading about the retail investors who pulled out last year and haven't gotten back in yet. Thank God for those folks.
I think given the long downward spiral we saw since 2007, we are in for a few years (maybe not a few CONSECUTIVE years however) of above average returns. Last year we had that. We are on track for above average returns this year.

And yes, I think a lot of investors are still hanging out on the sidelines. A recent mutual fund flow report showed almost nothing going into equities mutual funds, and many tens of billions into bond funds. The recent volatility of 07-08 may have scarred everyone into being more conservative. Until they realize getting 12%+ a year from the recent market is better than getting 4% from bonds, or zero or negative from bonds if rates rise suddenly.

Just my $0.02.

Also, regarding the poll/contest, are we playing Price is Right rules, or closest to the correct number rules? And I'll suggest that anyone who provides a range should have their official entry marked as the midpoint between their range. Otherwise, I'd like to suggest a range of 0 to 1,000,000 as where the Dow will end up.
__________________
Retired in 2013 at age 33. Keeping busy reading, blogging, relaxing, gaming, and enjoying the outdoors with my wife and 3 kids (5, 11, and 12).
FUEGO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 09:49 AM   #35
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
donheff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 8,642
Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO View Post
And yes, I think a lot of investors are still hanging out on the sidelines. A recent mutual fund flow report showed almost nothing going into equities mutual funds, and many tens of billions into bond funds. The recent volatility of 07-08 may have scarred everyone into being more conservative. Until they realize getting 12%+ a year from the recent market is better than getting 4% from bonds, or zero or negative from bonds if rates rise suddenly.
Hopefully, after another up year they will pile back in next winter keeping things going another year before we settle down into the predicted blah returns.
__________________
Every man is, or hopes to be, an Idler. -- Samuel Johnson
donheff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 10:02 AM   #36
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
Quote:
Originally Posted by 73ss454 View Post
Sheeeesh, are you still pushing this gloom and doom?

Is this called "churn and earn"
All I am saying is REBALANCE and TAKE GAINS..........
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 10:05 AM   #37
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Eastern PA
Posts: 3,851
Who looks at the DOW? Really....
__________________
rescueme is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 10:09 AM   #38
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
IndependentlyPoor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Austin
Posts: 1,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by rescueme View Post
Who looks at the DOW? Really....
Gosh... I do.
It is all over the place, and remains a pretty good proxy for VTSMX, Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index. I can see the DOW on a bank sign driving down the street and easily estimate my portfolio value.
__________________
Start by admitting
from cradle to tomb
it isn't that long a stay.
IndependentlyPoor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 11:26 AM   #39
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 7,886
12,999.

I chose that over 13,000 to pretend that I actually have a clue as to where the dow will end up
__________________
easysurfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 12:01 PM   #40
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,466
I had to scratch my head for a while before responding. I don't really care where the markets end up at the end of the calendar year, so I rarely think about it.

But I'll take a stab - I choose DOW 10,900. This is a little over 4% up from start of year.

I think there will be several things weighing on the market later in the year, and I think the peak in the DOW will occur in the first half, and then there will be a grind lower due to several factors:
  • economic numbers don't continue to look great, but the economy starts to appear weaker in the second half (although I do think employment will continue to improve.)
  • there might be more global economic type scares as the year goes on.
  • company earnings in the second half won't be nearly as spectacular in year-over-year comparison as they were in the first half, and this may lead to disappointment.
  • Tax selling due to expiring tax cuts on cap gains: I think this has been going on already and hasn't stopped the current rally, but I think it could intensify later in the year, especially if people decide that the market has topped out and they might as well take their profits.

OK - taking off predictive thinking cap. My brain hurts!

Audrey
__________________

__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
DOW 1000 - A dire prediction shotgunner FIRE and Money 19 04-09-2009 11:44 PM
Buy and Hold the original Dow 30 vs. investing in the Dow 30 index.... HokieHill FIRE and Money 1 04-07-2009 04:09 PM
Another view, DOW 3000 or DOW 12,200? RockOn FIRE and Money 25 03-03-2008 10:59 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:13 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.