Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: Your prediction for DOW 12/31/10
Below 8000 3 2.88%
8000 - 9500 6 5.77%
9500 - 10500 7 6.73%
10500 - 11500 33 31.73%
11500 - 12500 41 39.42%
Over 12500 14 13.46%
Voters: 104. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 04-16-2010, 12:06 PM   #41
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by thinker25 View Post
I can't remember which button I pushed in the poll! I think it might go above 12,000 but might be 9500 also. And I can live with either although I'd like to see it go up in 2011. I don't think it will drop below 9500 unless something catstrophic happens.
If you look at the poll after voting your choice is in italics.

Audrey
__________________

__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-16-2010, 12:12 PM   #42
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,877
So far, about 86% of us think the Dow will be over 10,500 by the end of the year.

Given that it has only recently exceeded 11,000, where are the bears? We seem to hear so much bear-ish talk on the board that I had assumed that over half would think the Dow would fall below 10,500 by the end of the year.

Maybe the bulls are the "silent majority" in this case. (?)
__________________

__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 01:02 PM   #43
Full time employment: Posting here.
MuirWannabe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 670
Quote:
Originally Posted by km4hr View Post
I calculate 12345.67. Not to put too fine a point on it.
Excellent prediction. To continue on that path I'll say the S&P500 will be 890.-=

Took great thought to complete those calculations
__________________
“Of all the paths you take in life, make sure a few of them are dirt.” John Muir
MuirWannabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 01:55 PM   #44
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,446
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
where are the bears?
Yosemite?

__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 03:14 PM   #45
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,877
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
Where are the bears?
Yosemite?
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 08:15 PM   #46
Recycles dryer sheets
Steve O's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 291
Ahh I wanna change mine to 6660
__________________
FIRED at 39 in 2008...
Steve O is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 09:23 PM   #47
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
73ss454's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,378
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
All I am saying is REBALANCE and TAKE GAINS..........
OK, and what do we do with the $ at that point.

Since I'm not smart enough to know what the market is going to do or when it's going to do it, I think I'll just stay fully invested and hope for the best.
__________________
73ss454 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 11:03 PM   #48
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
kyounge1956's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,171
I voted for 11500-12500. I think it might go over 12500, but not stay there. Why?

Just 'cuz.
__________________
kyounge1956 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2010, 11:42 PM   #49
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by 73ss454 View Post
OK, and what do we do with the $ at that point.

Since I'm not smart enough to know what the market is going to do or when it's going to do it, I think I'll just stay fully invested and hope for the best.
Well, technically, rebalancing takes gains from the winners and invests them in the laggards. You remain fully invested.

Audrey
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2010, 09:29 AM   #50
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 731
Originally Posted by thinker25
I can't remember which button I pushed in the poll! I think it might go above 12,000 but might be 9500 also. And I can live with either although I'd like to see it go up in 2011. I don't think it will drop below 9500 unless something catstrophic happens.

Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
If you look at the poll after voting your choice is in italics.
Audrey
Aha! - Thanks! Well I want to change my vote, I think it will go higher. I was in the 10500 to 11500 group - I think that's conservative. 11500 - 12500 is my current guess.
__________________
Retired July 2, 2010 at 62. My only regret is that I couldn't do it sooner.
thinker25 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2010, 09:33 AM   #51
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
kcowan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 5,718
Send a message via Skype™ to kcowan
Dow 10,000
Gold 1380
Oil 96
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
kcowan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2010, 10:09 AM   #52
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Eastern PA
Posts: 3,851
Quote:
Originally Posted by IndependentlyPoor View Post
Gosh... I do.
It is all over the place, and remains a pretty good proxy for VTSMX, Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index. I can see the DOW on a bank sign driving down the street and easily estimate my portfolio value.
So you only invest in one country?
__________________
rescueme is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2010, 10:10 AM   #53
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
IndependentlyPoor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Austin
Posts: 1,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by rescueme View Post
So you only invest in one country?
Got me.
__________________
Start by admitting
from cradle to tomb
it isn't that long a stay.
IndependentlyPoor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-18-2010, 03:05 AM   #54
Moderator Emeritus
CuppaJoe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,866
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve O View Post
15211
At least! j/k

Why so pessimistic, OP? Would you like a mod. to add higher guesses?

Seriously, I estimate it will again be hovering around 13999-14001. IOW, it will fluctuate on 12/31/10.
__________________
CuppaJoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2010, 02:44 PM   #55
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 7,886
With the dow nudging over 11,000 as of this moment, I just had to take a peek on our predictions. Not bad, the majority of the votes landed between 10500 thru 12500. Of course the year isn't over yet!
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2010, 03:32 PM   #56
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,612
One thing I continue to find troubling (beyond the lousy economy itself) is the very high correlation between stock prices and oil prices over the last year or so. It just feels like any strong economic recovery will be killed before it starts by $120+ oil.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2010, 07:58 PM   #57
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
One thing I continue to find troubling (beyond the lousy economy itself) is the very high correlation between stock prices and oil prices over the last year or so. It just feels like any strong economic recovery will be killed before it starts by $120+ oil.
My guess - stocks & oil move in the same direction at the same time - stocks & oil look ahead saying economic activity will pick up - stock & oil up, dollar down seems to be the relationship. My only guess for the dollar down is the low interest rates & if economic activity picks up; dollars flow out of the USA.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-07-2010, 02:37 PM   #58
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,526
Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO View Post
I'll go second. Dow 11,850. That will be up 12% from the start of the year. Seems reasonable given where we were in 07 and 08. And our economic situation will be 9 months clearer by then (not necessarily better though).
I wanted to revive this old thread so we could check what we guessed and where we are as we close in on the end of the year. I'm still sticking with my guess! The old crystal ball has been pretty clear lately.

And kudos to the ER forum members. The median from the poll is very close to where the Dow is today.
__________________
Retired in 2013 at age 33. Keeping busy reading, blogging, relaxing, gaming, and enjoying the outdoors with my wife and 3 kids (5, 11, and 12).
FUEGO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-07-2010, 03:46 PM   #59
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,446
Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO View Post
I wanted to revive this old thread so we could check what we guessed and where we are as we close in on the end of the year. I'm still sticking with my guess! The old crystal ball has been pretty clear lately.

And kudos to the ER forum members. The median from the poll is very close to where the Dow is today.
The year isn't over. We all know what happens when someone engages in premature celebration. This is a bad omen...
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-07-2010, 03:49 PM   #60
Administrator
Gumby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 10,143
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
The year isn't over. We all know what happens when someone engages in premature celebration. This is a bad omen...
Count no man happy until he is dead. -- Herodotus
__________________

__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
Gumby is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
DOW 1000 - A dire prediction shotgunner FIRE and Money 19 04-09-2009 11:44 PM
Buy and Hold the original Dow 30 vs. investing in the Dow 30 index.... HokieHill FIRE and Money 1 04-07-2009 04:09 PM
Another view, DOW 3000 or DOW 12,200? RockOn FIRE and Money 25 03-03-2008 10:59 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:22 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.