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View Poll Results: Your prediction for DOW 12/31/10
Below 8000 3 2.88%
8000 - 9500 6 5.77%
9500 - 10500 7 6.73%
10500 - 11500 33 31.73%
11500 - 12500 41 39.42%
Over 12500 14 13.46%
Voters: 104. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-02-2011, 07:35 AM   #81
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All right, I say the Dow below 9000. Say, 8750

and,

The unemployment rate stays above 9.5%
The Cubs are gonna win the pennant
The Dems will keep the house
My wife and kids will appreciate me


Jeez. The only one I got right was the unemployment rate. The other I wasn't even close.
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Old 01-02-2011, 08:17 AM   #82
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...it was just a wild ass guess.
Which one of these three helped you?

CalPhotos
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Old 01-02-2011, 09:05 AM   #83
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Thanks! But it was just a wild ass guess.

Ronstar, you are too modest. All predictions are a guess, no?
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Old 01-02-2011, 10:51 AM   #84
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Ronstar, you are too modest. All predictions are a guess, no?
I have noticed there a few individuals who don't believe that... or maybe they don't understand the concept.
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Old 01-02-2011, 12:15 PM   #85
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What I find amazing is that if we all had picked an exact Dow terminal value instead of a range, 11577 would be VERY close to the median guess. 53% of respondents guessed above 11,500 and 47% guessed below 11,500 (leaving the median presumably just above 11,500).
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Old 01-02-2011, 12:29 PM   #86
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All this predictive power deserves at least a 30-second slot on CNBC tomorrow morning.

Has anyone called the network? And Andy better beefs up his servers to handle the onslaught of the Web traffic. Oh no!
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Old 01-02-2011, 12:36 PM   #87
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Old 01-02-2011, 12:44 PM   #88
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And why do I keep thinking of the folly of the crowd? And isn't one of the rules of the stock market that the majority is usually wrong?

Note that forum members here are not in the majority of the population. Ah, that explains it. Wisdom of the "elite" crowd, not the "bozo" crowd.
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Old 01-02-2011, 05:34 PM   #89
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Which one of these three helped you?

CalPhotos
Hmmm, none of those look familiar

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Ronstar, you are too modest. All predictions are a guess, no?
Yes, I guess you're right.
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Old 01-02-2011, 06:18 PM   #90
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And why do I keep thinking of the folly of the crowd? And isn't one of the rules of the stock market that the majority is usually wrong?

Note that forum members here are not in the majority of the population. Ah, that explains it. Wisdom of the "elite" crowd, not the "bozo" crowd.
We have a winner. The masses are to easily swayed by the expert with loudest megaphone on subject which they are fundamentally ignorant about.

I am not saying that public is stupid. For instance, I am constantly impressed by how accurate sports betting lines are. (Note I am not a sport bettor and not much of a sports fan period.) I think they are accurate because you have millions of knowledgeable fans making independent assessment of the outcome of the game. They may listen to ESPN etc but they have a vested interested in doing their own research.

Same thing for this forum, lots of folks have a very good knowledge of how the stock market works. We may listen to experts but for the most part we make an independent assessment that says I am going to tweak my AA cause I think stocks are under or overvalued. Obviously crashes happen and the forum didn't see it. Even then we had people like Running Man and a couple of other warning about the leverage problems in early 2008.

Or to put it another way, when some of my friends, acquittances and my mom start talking about buying or selling stocks, I view this as contrary indicator. Not this forum.
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Old 01-04-2011, 11:56 AM   #91
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For Canadians on this board, we are running a contest again this year to forecast the DOW, Gold, OIL, TSX and CAD. The winner was Snowman whose forecasts were
11,600, 1225, 88, 12,800 and 1.00 against actuals of
11,578, 1421, 91, 13,443 and 1.002
If you are interested in participating, make your guesses by Jan 16th Midnight at
2011 predictions contest - Canadian Money Forum
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