View Poll Results: Your prediction for DOW 12/31/10
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Below 8000
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3 |
2.88% |
8000 - 9500
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6 |
5.77% |
9500 - 10500
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7 |
6.73% |
10500 - 11500
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33 |
31.73% |
11500 - 12500
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41 |
39.42% |
Over 12500
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14 |
13.46% |
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04-16-2010, 11:06 AM
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#41
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,017
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thinker25
I can't remember which button I pushed in the poll! I think it might go above 12,000 but might be 9500 also. And I can live with either although I'd like to see it go up in 2011. I don't think it will drop below 9500 unless something catstrophic happens.
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If you look at the poll after voting your choice is in italics.
Audrey
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Retired since summer 1999.
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04-16-2010, 11:12 AM
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#42
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,474
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So far, about 86% of us think the Dow will be over 10,500 by the end of the year.
Given that it has only recently exceeded 11,000, where are the bears? We seem to hear so much bear-ish talk on the board that I had assumed that over half would think the Dow would fall below 10,500 by the end of the year.
Maybe the bulls are the "silent majority" in this case. (?)
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Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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04-16-2010, 12:02 PM
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#43
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 2,110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by km4hr
I calculate 12345.67. Not to put too fine a point on it.
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Excellent prediction. To continue on that path I'll say the S&P500 will be 890.-=
Took great thought to complete those calculations
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“Of all the paths you take in life, make sure a few of them are dirt.” John Muir
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04-16-2010, 12:55 PM
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#44
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,595
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
where are the bears?
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Yosemite?
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04-16-2010, 02:14 PM
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#45
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,474
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__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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04-16-2010, 07:15 PM
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#46
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 291
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Ahh I wanna change mine to 6660
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FIRED at 39 in 2008...
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04-16-2010, 08:23 PM
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#47
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,698
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OK, and what do we do with the $ at that point.
Since I'm not smart enough to know what the market is going to do or when it's going to do it, I think I'll just stay fully invested and hope for the best.
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04-16-2010, 10:03 PM
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#48
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,171
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I voted for 11500-12500. I think it might go over 12500, but not stay there. Why?
Just 'cuz.
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04-16-2010, 10:42 PM
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#49
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,017
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 73ss454
OK, and what do we do with the $ at that point.
Since I'm not smart enough to know what the market is going to do or when it's going to do it, I think I'll just stay fully invested and hope for the best.
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Well, technically, rebalancing takes gains from the winners and invests them in the laggards. You remain fully invested.
Audrey
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Retired since summer 1999.
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04-17-2010, 08:29 AM
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#50
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 939
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Originally Posted by thinker25
I can't remember which button I pushed in the poll! I think it might go above 12,000 but might be 9500 also. And I can live with either although I'd like to see it go up in 2011. I don't think it will drop below 9500 unless something catstrophic happens.
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
If you look at the poll after voting your choice is in italics.
Audrey
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Aha! - Thanks! Well I want to change my vote, I think it will go higher. I was in the 10500 to 11500 group - I think that's conservative. 11500 - 12500 is my current guess.
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I used to be “Thinker25” here. Retired at 62, now 73 (in 2021), no regrets & single again. I love it. I’m in RI.
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04-17-2010, 08:33 AM
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#51
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,677
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Dow 10,000
Gold 1380
Oil 96
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
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04-17-2010, 09:09 AM
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#52
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gone traveling
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Eastern PA
Posts: 3,851
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IndependentlyPoor
Gosh... I do.
It is all over the place, and remains a pretty good proxy for VTSMX, Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index. I can see the DOW on a bank sign driving down the street and easily estimate my portfolio value.
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So you only invest in one country?
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04-17-2010, 09:10 AM
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#53
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Austin
Posts: 1,142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rescueme
So you only invest in one country?
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Got me.
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Start by admitting
from cradle to tomb
it isn't that long a stay.
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04-18-2010, 02:05 AM
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#54
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,873
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At least! j/k
Why so pessimistic, OP? Would you like a mod. to add higher guesses?
Seriously, I estimate it will again be hovering around 13999-14001. IOW, it will fluctuate on 12/31/10.
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10-08-2010, 01:44 PM
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#55
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,134
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With the dow nudging over 11,000 as of this moment, I just had to take a peek on our predictions. Not bad, the majority of the votes landed between 10500 thru 12500. Of course the year isn't over yet!
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Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
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10-08-2010, 02:32 PM
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#56
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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One thing I continue to find troubling (beyond the lousy economy itself) is the very high correlation between stock prices and oil prices over the last year or so. It just feels like any strong economic recovery will be killed before it starts by $120+ oil.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-08-2010, 06:58 PM
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#57
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
One thing I continue to find troubling (beyond the lousy economy itself) is the very high correlation between stock prices and oil prices over the last year or so. It just feels like any strong economic recovery will be killed before it starts by $120+ oil.
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My guess - stocks & oil move in the same direction at the same time - stocks & oil look ahead saying economic activity will pick up - stock & oil up, dollar down seems to be the relationship. My only guess for the dollar down is the low interest rates & if economic activity picks up; dollars flow out of the USA.
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Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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12-07-2010, 01:37 PM
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#58
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO
I'll go second. Dow 11,850. That will be up 12% from the start of the year. Seems reasonable given where we were in 07 and 08. And our economic situation will be 9 months clearer by then (not necessarily better though).
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I wanted to revive this old thread so we could check what we guessed and where we are as we close in on the end of the year. I'm still sticking with my guess! The old crystal ball has been pretty clear lately.
And kudos to the ER forum members. The median from the poll is very close to where the Dow is today.
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Retired in 2013 at age 33. Keeping busy reading, blogging, relaxing, gaming, and enjoying the outdoors with my wife and 3 kids (8, 13, and 15).
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12-07-2010, 02:46 PM
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#59
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,595
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO
I wanted to revive this old thread so we could check what we guessed and where we are as we close in on the end of the year. I'm still sticking with my guess! The old crystal ball has been pretty clear lately.
And kudos to the ER forum members. The median from the poll is very close to where the Dow is today.
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The year isn't over. We all know what happens when someone engages in premature celebration. This is a bad omen...
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12-07-2010, 02:49 PM
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#60
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Administrator
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 22,981
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Count no man happy until he is dead. -- Herodotus
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Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
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