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View Poll Results: Your prediction for DOW 12/31/10
Below 8000 3 2.88%
8000 - 9500 6 5.77%
9500 - 10500 7 6.73%
10500 - 11500 33 31.73%
11500 - 12500 41 39.42%
Over 12500 14 13.46%
Voters: 104. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-16-2010, 11:06 AM   #41
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I can't remember which button I pushed in the poll! I think it might go above 12,000 but might be 9500 also. And I can live with either although I'd like to see it go up in 2011. I don't think it will drop below 9500 unless something catstrophic happens.
If you look at the poll after voting your choice is in italics.

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Old 04-16-2010, 11:12 AM   #42
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So far, about 86% of us think the Dow will be over 10,500 by the end of the year.

Given that it has only recently exceeded 11,000, where are the bears? We seem to hear so much bear-ish talk on the board that I had assumed that over half would think the Dow would fall below 10,500 by the end of the year.

Maybe the bulls are the "silent majority" in this case. (?)
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Old 04-16-2010, 12:02 PM   #43
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I calculate 12345.67. Not to put too fine a point on it.
Excellent prediction. To continue on that path I'll say the S&P500 will be 890.-=

Took great thought to complete those calculations
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Old 04-16-2010, 12:55 PM   #44
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where are the bears?
Yosemite?

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Old 04-16-2010, 02:14 PM   #45
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Where are the bears?
Yosemite?
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Old 04-16-2010, 07:15 PM   #46
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Ahh I wanna change mine to 6660
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Old 04-16-2010, 08:23 PM   #47
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All I am saying is REBALANCE and TAKE GAINS..........
OK, and what do we do with the $ at that point.

Since I'm not smart enough to know what the market is going to do or when it's going to do it, I think I'll just stay fully invested and hope for the best.
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Old 04-16-2010, 10:03 PM   #48
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I voted for 11500-12500. I think it might go over 12500, but not stay there. Why?

Just 'cuz.
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Old 04-16-2010, 10:42 PM   #49
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OK, and what do we do with the $ at that point.

Since I'm not smart enough to know what the market is going to do or when it's going to do it, I think I'll just stay fully invested and hope for the best.
Well, technically, rebalancing takes gains from the winners and invests them in the laggards. You remain fully invested.

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Old 04-17-2010, 08:29 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by thinker25
I can't remember which button I pushed in the poll! I think it might go above 12,000 but might be 9500 also. And I can live with either although I'd like to see it go up in 2011. I don't think it will drop below 9500 unless something catstrophic happens.

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If you look at the poll after voting your choice is in italics.
Audrey
Aha! - Thanks! Well I want to change my vote, I think it will go higher. I was in the 10500 to 11500 group - I think that's conservative. 11500 - 12500 is my current guess.
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Old 04-17-2010, 08:33 AM   #51
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Dow 10,000
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Old 04-17-2010, 09:09 AM   #52
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Gosh... I do.
It is all over the place, and remains a pretty good proxy for VTSMX, Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index. I can see the DOW on a bank sign driving down the street and easily estimate my portfolio value.
So you only invest in one country?
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Old 04-17-2010, 09:10 AM   #53
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So you only invest in one country?
Got me.
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Old 04-18-2010, 02:05 AM   #54
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15211
At least! j/k

Why so pessimistic, OP? Would you like a mod. to add higher guesses?

Seriously, I estimate it will again be hovering around 13999-14001. IOW, it will fluctuate on 12/31/10.
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Old 10-08-2010, 01:44 PM   #55
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With the dow nudging over 11,000 as of this moment, I just had to take a peek on our predictions. Not bad, the majority of the votes landed between 10500 thru 12500. Of course the year isn't over yet!
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Old 10-08-2010, 02:32 PM   #56
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One thing I continue to find troubling (beyond the lousy economy itself) is the very high correlation between stock prices and oil prices over the last year or so. It just feels like any strong economic recovery will be killed before it starts by $120+ oil.
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Old 10-08-2010, 06:58 PM   #57
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One thing I continue to find troubling (beyond the lousy economy itself) is the very high correlation between stock prices and oil prices over the last year or so. It just feels like any strong economic recovery will be killed before it starts by $120+ oil.
My guess - stocks & oil move in the same direction at the same time - stocks & oil look ahead saying economic activity will pick up - stock & oil up, dollar down seems to be the relationship. My only guess for the dollar down is the low interest rates & if economic activity picks up; dollars flow out of the USA.
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Old 12-07-2010, 01:37 PM   #58
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I'll go second. Dow 11,850. That will be up 12% from the start of the year. Seems reasonable given where we were in 07 and 08. And our economic situation will be 9 months clearer by then (not necessarily better though).
I wanted to revive this old thread so we could check what we guessed and where we are as we close in on the end of the year. I'm still sticking with my guess! The old crystal ball has been pretty clear lately.

And kudos to the ER forum members. The median from the poll is very close to where the Dow is today.
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Old 12-07-2010, 02:46 PM   #59
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I wanted to revive this old thread so we could check what we guessed and where we are as we close in on the end of the year. I'm still sticking with my guess! The old crystal ball has been pretty clear lately.

And kudos to the ER forum members. The median from the poll is very close to where the Dow is today.
The year isn't over. We all know what happens when someone engages in premature celebration. This is a bad omen...
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Old 12-07-2010, 02:49 PM   #60
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The year isn't over. We all know what happens when someone engages in premature celebration. This is a bad omen...
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