Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Dow to drop over 4000 pts and other news at 11PM
Old 06-10-2015, 09:15 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
shotgunner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 454
Dow to drop over 4000 pts and other news at 11PM

Here is a cheery prediction from MarketWatch.

Get ready for a 4,000-point Dow drop
__________________

__________________
Never surrender what you really want for what you want right now.
shotgunner is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 06-10-2015, 09:21 AM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
timo2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Rio Rancho
Posts: 1,438
that should keep the talking heads busy. it probably won't stop them from covering the sex lives of the rich and famous, unfortunately.
__________________

__________________
"We live the lives we lead because of the thoughts we think" Michael O’Neill
timo2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 09:37 AM   #3
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 619
I can almost guarantee a 4000 point drop in the Dow. That's about 22%, which has happened many times in the past. I just can't predict when it will happen.
__________________
Which Roger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 09:42 AM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
RetireAge50's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,120
Yawn, 11 pm is way past my bed time.
__________________
RetireAge50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 09:52 AM   #5
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,884
4000 points? Is that all? Piece o' cake. (yawn!)

2008-2009 was a great training exercise for us and after dealing with that crash and coming out of it nicely (as many of us did), such a drop would seem like child's play.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 09:53 AM   #6
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 92
Lol. For every prediction of a huge decline, there is an offsetting prediction of a huge gain. All by noted experts in their field. Agree, gives the talking heads something to chatter about.
__________________
Unpaintedhuffhines is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 09:57 AM   #7
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 882
Quote:
Originally Posted by Which Roger View Post
I can almost guarantee a 4000 point drop in the Dow. That's about 22%, which has happened many times in the past. I just can't predict when it will happen.
1987! One day.
__________________
jebmke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 10:00 AM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,974
Garbage, no surprise. While interest rates have an effect on markets long term, the premise from the link is inaccurate to begin with:
Quote:
Are there parallels to this current market environment? Yes — 1987.

The summer that year began with a slow, methodical rise in actual rates. Yet the Fed did not raise the discount rate, even though actual rates suggested otherwise. The fall of 1987 arrived with the stock market having hit an all-time high in late August, unfazed by this unsettled condition.

As it happened, the Federal Reserve was literally forced to raise interest rates. Policymakers were behind the curve severely, just as the Fed is now. The 1987 rising-rate action caused stock prices to tumble more than 30% within two months, including a sharp 20% selloff in October — still among the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s worst one-day percentage declines ever.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_%281987%29
Quote:
Possible causes for the decline included program trading, overvaluation, illiquidity, and market psychology.

A popular explanation for the 1987 crash was selling by program traders, most notably as a reaction to the computerized selling required by portfolio insurance hedges.[10] However, economist Dean Furbush points out that the biggest price drops occurred when trading volume was light.[11] In program trading, computers perform rapid stock executions based on external inputs, such as the price of related securities. Common strategies implemented by program trading involve an attempt to engage in arbitrage and portfolio insurance strategies. As computer technology became more available, the use of program trading grew dramatically within Wall Street firms. After the crash, many blamed program trading strategies for blindly selling stocks as markets fell, exacerbating the decline. Some economists theorized the speculative boom leading up to October was caused by program trading, and that the crash was merely a return to normalcy. Either way, program trading ended up taking the majority of the blame in the public eye for the 1987 stock market crash. U.S. Congressman Edward J. Markey, who had been warning about the possibility of a crash, stated that "Program trading was the principal cause."[12]

New York University's Anna Chen divides the causes into macroeconomic and internal reasons. Macroeconomic causes included international disputes about foreign exchange and interest rates, and fears about inflation.
The internal reasons included innovations with index futures and portfolio insurance. I've seen accounts that maybe roughly half the trading on that day was a small number of institutions with portfolio insurance. Big guys were dumping their stock. Also, the futures market in Chicago was even lower than the stock market, and people tried to arbitrage that. The proper strategy was to buy futures in Chicago and sell in the New York cash market. It made it hard – the portfolio insurance people were also trying to sell their stock at the same time.[13]
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 10:10 AM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,702
That would be time to "buybuybuy!".
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 10:15 AM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 1,570
A 4000 pt/22% drop would be the correction we've been expecting for what, a couple of years now. Pretty regular. I was hoping for a larger buying opportunity
__________________
razztazz is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 10:28 AM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
mpeirce's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Columbus area
Posts: 1,587
Quote:
Originally Posted by jebmke View Post
1987! One day.
That was the year I learned not to sell on panics.

I had very little in the market ($2K in an IRA maybe), but one of my office mates did. She and her husband really did panic. They sold all their stocks at a large loss and didn't get back in the market in time.

I was able to look at what they did and see how stupid they had been.

Every time the market tanks I think of them and it helps me to stay invested. This has severed me very well.
__________________
mpeirce is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 10:29 AM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 2,056
And, in other news, tomorrow morning it is predicted the Sun will rise in the East!
__________________
Andre1969 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 10:31 AM   #13
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 197
If you visit the MarketWatch site often enough, you will see those kinds of headlines are a regular occurrence on there. It's click-bait - nothing more.

What's the old expression......"they've predicted nine of the last 5 recessions"

Keep your powder dry. Have your Exit Strategy planned if it gets really nasty. But relying on MarketWatch for anything more than their daily charts is not a good thing.
__________________
It's a small mind that can only think of one way to spell a word.
FiveDriver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 10:34 AM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,974
We had nothing in the market before, but I put everything we had (about $20K) in the market on the Tuesday & Wednesday after Black Monday. The first of several great opportunities. We have been in and stayed in ever since.

I'd rather be lucky than good...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 10:37 AM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lakewood90712's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,316
The article author is full of manure , but I always welcome sale prices on good, dividend paying equities.
__________________
“The finance industry is 5% rational people and 95% shamans and faith healers.” - Charlie Munger
Lakewood90712 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 10:44 AM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
imoldernu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Peru
Posts: 4,616
...and the winner is.... !!!!
@11:45 ET... the DOW!!!
UP... 260 Pts.

__________________
imoldernu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 10:46 AM   #17
Full time employment: Posting here.
UnrealizedPotential's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 573
We all like to think we know more in life than we actually do. This applies to the stock market as much as anything else.
__________________
Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things. Charlie Munger
UnrealizedPotential is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 10:49 AM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,035
I love a sale.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
dallas27 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 11:04 AM   #19
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 731
Quote:
Originally Posted by imoldernu View Post
...and the winner is.... !!!!
@11:45 ET... the DOW!!!
UP... 260 Pts.

Keep the doom articles coming!
__________________
BBQ-Nut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2015, 11:18 AM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 2,056
Wheeee!
__________________

__________________
Andre1969 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Bad news, bad news, good news.... ziggy29 Health and Early Retirement 17 04-04-2011 10:26 AM
Buy and Hold the original Dow 30 vs. investing in the Dow 30 index.... HokieHill FIRE and Money 1 04-07-2009 04:09 PM
Last Year, of Over 4000 Equity Funds in Morningstar Database, All But One Lost Money haha FIRE and Money 4 03-26-2009 05:37 PM
refi at 4.875, 0 pts almost done! Bimmerbill Young Dreamers 24 01-25-2009 03:18 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:14 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.