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Old 06-04-2011, 01:22 PM   #21
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I waited a loooong time for the Saint's to make the Superbowl.

60/40 then. 60/40 now. Stay the course. Party on.


heh heh heh - ok ok so my Target Retirement is changing the asset mix as the clock ticks - so hurry with the 20k. Oh and Geaux Saints. Do I have another thirty years to wait in either case?

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Old 06-04-2011, 02:08 PM   #22
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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I am certain the Dow will hit 20,000. I just don't know if it will be in the next few years or after I'm dead in 33 7.8 years.

No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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Old 06-04-2011, 02:58 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by M Paquette
Originally Posted by Gatordoc50
Since the Fed is using a Keynesian approach to fiscal policy

Indeed. Pesky Keynesians and related modern neoclassic economists tend to do things like measure, analyze, and try to formulate quantitative results. I don't know why an organization managing monetary policy would be interested in something like that.
(BTW, the Fed handles monetary policy. Congress handles fiscal policy, such as it is, and sets mandates for the Fed's goals in monetary policy.)

I've always found a strict Austrian school interpretation to be much more entertaining. The Austrian school leans toward strict methodological individualism, treating all economic actors as efficient and logical individual agents, and deriving economic theory as a logical extension of basic principles of human action. They would have loved Star Trek's Mr. Spock. (For similar reasons, the Austrian school of economics is much loved in libertarian political circles.)

The Austrian school's focus on logical human actors leads to some interesting bits in their economic philosophy.

[*]Testability of economic hypothesis is virtually impossible, since attempting to measure the responses of human actors alters their actions.[*]Since an Austrian economic hypothesis is not testable, the Austrian school relies on the power of deduction and a priori reasoning. This puts the school well outside the realm of science, which is founded on testable hypothesis.[*]Econometrics and mathematical analysis, being based on mere empirical data and not derived as a logical extension of basic principles of human action, are rejected.

I'm not sure how useful an economic school that rejects quantitative analysis and measurement can be in the real world. It is amusing to see people using an economic philosophy that believes measurement and intervention are futile to argue points about measurement and intervention policy.

Samuelson, Paul A. (Sep 1964). "Theory and Realism: A Reply". The American Economic Review (American Economic Association): 736–739.

Caplan, Bryan. "Why I Am Not an Austrian Economist". George Mason University
Yes, Congress handles fiscal policy. They determine how the money the Fed prints is spent. That is where the problem lies. I hear what you all are saying, that by the end of the year, all the Fed easing will come to fruition and we will be out of this mess. I'm looking forward to it. ( This is where I would roll my eyes if I were that type of guy, but I'm not).
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Old 06-04-2011, 06:31 PM   #24
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I saw James on Kudlow and Company last night, this was discussed. I think he is crazy, talk about a perma bull! OTOH, we had the super bull mega trend from 1982 to 2000 then we entered a super bear mega trend to?. Maybe in 2 years we will be in the beginning of another super bull mega trend again, after all markets go up, markets go down. It would be nice but I'm learning to be a bit more skeptical about these things, after all I don't have another 30 years.
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Old 06-04-2011, 11:39 PM   #25
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