Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Down Day in the Market !
Old 02-02-2018, 01:15 PM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
frayne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: 19th Hole
Posts: 2,811
Down Day in the Market !

HOLY COW, said tongue in cheek. It is kind of funny and we all expected it but I have to laugh at the talking heads on the boob tube trying to explain away the reason for reversion to the mean.
__________________

__________________
A totally unblemished life is only for saints.
frayne is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 02-02-2018, 01:21 PM   #2
Full time employment: Posting here.
ownyourfuture's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 680
__________________

__________________
"No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast"
ownyourfuture is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 01:35 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Major Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: SF East Bay
Posts: 3,250
It's a bit weird really, but this is kinda fun. I'm sure others here will understand.
__________________
ER, for all intents and purposes. Part-time income <5% of annual expenditure.
Major Tom is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 01:45 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
exnavynuke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Acworth
Posts: 1,116
Buying more today...
exnavynuke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 01:48 PM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
Christine's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 232
Definately interesting to watch it go from red hot to red. But 2% cannot take us back very far in time. It's more like a little rain on a hot summers day. Made me smile.
Christine is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 01:48 PM   #6
Full time employment: Posting here.
ESRwannabe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 701
I'm getting close to being able to retire early. I would love to get the crash over with while I'm still employed and stash some more money at lower prices.

Plan has been to ESR at 45. I turn 42 this year. Taxable brokerage account dividend and interest income is $28k (AA 50/50 fixed income and stocks), living expenses $30k, w-2 income $70k, years in pension 17. Should be ready by 45 to ESR for 15 years and then ER. At 60 can collect pension (20 years vested) plus 401k/Roth IRA.

Bring on the crash.
ESRwannabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 01:52 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 3,668
I expect it will continue on Monday.
__________________
...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
jazz4cash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 01:52 PM   #8
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 650
Thank goodness, there has been a lot of craziness with the new generation of investors who think the market only goes up and up an up.. We need some scary down days to help them put things in perspective... and hopefully, stop taking such crazy risks. Its one thing to be aggressive but I've seen way too many posts where people have their life savings in stuff that is pure gambling speculative... get enough of those people and thats how bubbles happen.
karen1972 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 02:12 PM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
jollystomper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,669
Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne View Post
HOLY COW, said tongue in cheek. It is kind of funny and we all expected it but I have to laugh at the talking heads on the boob tube trying to explain away the reason for reversion to the mean.
I'm still waiting for the "Markets May Have Had a Bad Week But They Are Still Up Over 3% YTD So Why Is Everyone Panicking? Settle Down People!" headline.
__________________
FIREd date: June 26, 2018 - wwwwwwhat a rush!
jollystomper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 02:21 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 9,235
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazz4cash View Post
I expect it will continue on Monday.
Maybe. Maybe not.

There were people not paying attention today, so this weekend they will have a chance to see what happened to their portfolios.

One group will say, "OMG! I lost a ton and need to get out."
Another group will say, "OMG! Buying opportunity!"

We won't know which is the larger group until next week.
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 02:25 PM   #11
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 627
Quote:
Originally Posted by ESRwannabe View Post
I'm getting close to being able to retire early. I would love to get the crash over with while I'm still employed and stash some more money at lower prices.

Plan has been to ESR at 45. I turn 42 this year. Taxable brokerage account dividend and interest income is $28k (AA 50/50 fixed income and stocks), living expenses $30k, w-2 income $70k, years in pension 17. Should be ready by 45 to ESR for 15 years and then ER. At 60 can collect pension (20 years vested) plus 401k/Roth IRA.

Bring on the crash.
So, you have a plan that tells you when the crash is over?

Here's the thing about down markets: It is hard to tell when the big down is over, just like it is hard (except when looking back in time) to tell where the peak is.

On the upside, there were plenty of people thinking the market had peaked in 94, 95, 96...and the market kept on going up and up and up. Staying out of the money cost them tons of money, and shorting was disastrous.

Similar for the downside. Let's say you were 50/50 in 1929 at the market peak, with the SP @ 31.86. You smartly ride out the crash and in fact stay out until the SP dropped all the way to 15.93 (a 50 PERCENT drop). You then invest your 50% remaining cash (er, assuming your bank hadn't been wiped out, but I digress). But you are early (in retrospect), and the SP 500 drops all the way down to 4.4 (a 86.1% drop from the peak). How much are you down at the bottom? Well, 86.1% on 50% and 72.4% on the other 50% you invested when you "thought" the market had bottomed.
copyright1997reloaded is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 02:28 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 21,767
Quote:
Originally Posted by Major Tom View Post
It's a bit weird really, but this is kinda fun. I'm sure others here will understand.
Yes. In less than 1 month, my fleeting gain was more than 2 years of living expenses.

Then poof, more than 1/2 of that was gone this week. If I knew, would sell all last Friday.

A 6-figure "loss", just like that. Easy come, easy go.

My consolation is that it looks like the Feb covered call options I still have outstanding will bite the dust, but that only gives me $6K in cash. A puny amount compared to what is "lost", but I guess that's better than nothing.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 02:32 PM   #13
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 644
I looked into my crystal ball to see where this market is headed and it said, and I quote "Don't even think about, Idiot!"
__________________
Retired July 2013 at age 49.

Lazy Portfolio Investor:
AA: 55% Stocks
35% Bonds
10% Cash
NanoSour is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 02:33 PM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Senator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Eagan, MN
Posts: 3,387
I bought 25 shares of HDV today near the bottom, 90.25. I stopped buying for a few months due to other expenses, other than reinvesting dividends.

I am still trying to increase my dividend stream.
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
Senator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 02:40 PM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Live And Learn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Tampa Bay Area
Posts: 1,764
I'll be watching Monday morning. The last time this happened one of my ETFs had a 20% flash crash that I was able to buy into. I would LOVE to do that again
__________________
"For the time being no discipline brings joy, but seems grievous and painful; but afterwards it yields a peaceable fruit of righteousness to those who have been trained by it." ~
Hebrews 12:11

ER'd in June 2015 at age 52. Initial WR 3%. 50/40/10 (Equity/Bond/Short Term) AA.
Live And Learn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 02:45 PM   #16
Full time employment: Posting here.
ESRwannabe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 701
Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded View Post
So, you have a plan that tells you when the crash is over?

Here's the thing about down markets: It is hard to tell when the big down is over, just like it is hard (except when looking back in time) to tell where the peak is.

No, I don't know when a crash will happen or when it will end, nor how bad it will be, nor how many times in a row it will happen, blah bah blah.

I am always 100% invested. The 50/50 AA is not because I think there will be a crash. That is my standard AA. I do not use fixed income for re-balancing, I use it to generate cash, same with equities. I am not a MPT investor, my withdrawal strategy is based on generating income. I invest in stocks/bonds like a real estate investor invests in property. The goal is to build free cash flow.

I invest to build cash flow. So while I may not have cash sitting around, I do have cash flow. If we have a crash now I can put 100% of it into reinvestment. Hence my desire for it to crash now, the sooner the better.
ESRwannabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 02:46 PM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,873
Dow ended down 666 (rounded) pts on Friday .

Will be interesting to see what Monday brings. A bounce or continued drop or barely a move. Fear vs greed in action. Gotta love .
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 02:56 PM   #18
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Locust grove
Posts: 96
I have time to ride this out. I think this will be a bit bumpy for a few weeks leading into another rise. That's what my gut tells me. Hope its not wrong LOL
__________________
ER Target May = 2022
Jeffman52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 02:56 PM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 1,714
Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator View Post
I bought 25 shares of HDV today near the bottom, 90.25. I stopped buying for a few months due to other expenses, other than reinvesting dividends.

I am still trying to increase my dividend stream.
That's the game . Income streams. Maybe the income and divey investors will have their day. Either way I will survive.
__________________
Taking Social Security at 62 because it really doesn't matter that much.
foxfirev5 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2018, 03:08 PM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: northern Michigan
Posts: 1,011
The talking heads say that today's drop was due to fears of higher interest rates, and perhaps they are right. I have a feeling, though, that the Trump/Nunes/FBI Russia thing is going to send some fairly major tremors through the markets soon as well. Maybe next week, maybe after that, but I think it will happen.

Not trying to start a political discussion here at all.......just an observation/prediction.
__________________

RAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
T-Theory - Secular Bear Market - Market down into June/July? dex FIRE and Money 8 08-26-2010 06:48 PM
Pay down existing mortgage or save up for big down payment? Andre1969 Young Dreamers 13 04-29-2010 10:05 AM
Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits dex FIRE and Money 32 03-16-2007 04:46 PM
How do you deal with a down market day like today? dante60093 FIRE and Money 31 07-17-2004 01:17 PM
Buy House Now w/Low Down or Save Bigger Down? BigMoneyJim Young Dreamers 11 07-14-2004 04:23 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:30 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.