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Old 02-10-2013, 08:10 PM   #141
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Not necessarily. There is a big difference between 65 and 75 or 85. When my parents were 65 they were both still active. They certainly had no problem with travel or getting out and about at all. Just like my DH at 65 has no problem.

When my mom turned 77 she went on a vacation with us (my dad had died a year or so earlier). She enjoyed it but it was obvious that she tired more easily and found long trips tiring. It was the last long trip that she wanted to take. She is now in her late 80s. She isn't dead and she isn't bedridden. But, there is no way that she wants to go on trips any more. In fact, she doesn't like to go out to dinner all that often. She finds it tiring and most of the time it just isn't worth it. Bear in mind, that for most of her life she was quite active. But, once she got over 80 she slowed down a lot even though she isn't bedridden.
I found the same thing with my parents. The 60's were a breeze, slight slow down in the 70's. By the time the 80's and 90's rolled around the desire for travel, eating out and so forth rapidly diminished and then disappeared. It's not a money centered thing. Simply the desire to do things is vastly reduced. I'm sure there are some exceptions and there are 95 year olds that are going on world tours and para sailing and climbing mountains but I personally don't know of any.
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Old 02-10-2013, 08:52 PM   #142
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I found the same thing with my parents. The 60's were a breeze, slight slow down in the 70's. By the time the 80's and 90's rolled around the desire for travel, eating out and so forth rapidly diminished and then disappeared. It's not a money centered thing. Simply the desire to do things is vastly reduced. I'm sure there are some exceptions and there are 95 year olds that are going on world tours and para sailing and climbing mountains but I personally don't know of any.
At what point did you notice that their reduced "consumerism" outweighed their need to spend more for age related services, health care, geezer amenities while traveling, etc., and therefore their total spending dropped noticeably? 65? 70? 75? 80?

Bernicke's plan calls for reducing geezer expenditures by 2% - 3% per year starting at age 56.
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Old 02-10-2013, 09:06 PM   #143
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At what point did you notice that their reduced "consumerism" outweighed their need to spend more for age related services, health care, geezer amenities while traveling, etc., and therefore their total spending dropped noticeably? 65? 70? 75? 80?

Bernicke's plan calls for reducing geezer expenditures by 2% - 3% per year starting at age 56.
I would say their desire to "do things" diminished rapidly starting in their early 80's or so. They were both fortunate in the medical department, no chronic debilitating diseases. My father got a pacemaker in his 80's. Reducing 3% a year starting mid 50"s would have been a bit premature in their case. But of course, everybody is different. Just looking at the obits @ the local paper there are plenty of entries aged in the 50's and 60's.
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Old 02-10-2013, 09:09 PM   #144
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Please correct me if I am wrong, but I think Bernicke described the results compiled from actual spending patterns of some sample of retirees, and not a spending model that he concocted.

So, we may dispute the validity of his observations by saying that his sample was not typical of the entire population, or there were flaws in his compilation of data, but we cannot say that he made this all up.

Caveat: I got the above impression from reading second-hand sources, and have not found and read the original article by Bernicke.

PS. And then, even if the above is true, Bernicke's data is still an average of many spending profiles, and individual cases of course may differ wildly from that average.
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Old 02-10-2013, 09:21 PM   #145
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Please correct me if I am wrong, but I think Bernicke described the results compiled from actual spending patterns of some sample of retirees, and not a spending model that he concocted.
I think FireCalc does in fact have a spending plan based on Bernicke. From the FireCalc instructions:
Ty Bernicke's Reality Retirement Planning: A New Paradigm for an Old Science describes extensive research showing that most people see significant reductions in spending with age (not related to reduced assets or income). If selected, this option will reduce your inflation-adjusted yearly spending by 2-3% per year starting at age 56, and then stabilizing at age 76 to keep up with inflation. You should read his article for details if you plan to use this option.
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So, we may dispute the validity of his observations by saying that his sample was not typical of the entire population, or there were flaws in his compilation of data, but we cannot say that he made this all up.
I'm not disputing the validity of his observations, just marveling at how they don't seem to be applying in the case of DW and myself. I'm certainly not saying he "made it up." I don't think you're saying that either. So I guess "we're" not saying it.
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Caveat: I got the above impression from reading second-hand sources, and have not found and read the original article by Bernicke.

PS. And then, of course even if the above is true, Bernicke's data is still an average of many spending profiles, and individual cases may differ wildly from that average.
Bingo!
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Old 02-10-2013, 09:30 PM   #146
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=youbet;1282625 "snip" I'm not disputing the validity of his observations, just marveling at how they don't seem to be applying in the case of DW and myself.

Bingo!
Anything is possible :73-year-old becomes oldest woman to climb Mount Everest - Telegraph

But it's certainly a challenge to generalize from an outlier's experience.
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Old 02-10-2013, 09:38 PM   #147
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I think FireCalc does in fact have a spending plan based on Bernicke. From the FireCalc instructions:[INDENT]Ty Bernicke's Reality Retirement Planning: A New Paradigm for an Old Science describes extensive research showing that most people see significant reductions in spending with age (not related to reduced assets or income)...
Just now, I tried to click on the link that you posted that supposedly took me to the original Bernicke's article, but it did not work. I will try that again.

Anyway, I believe I will behave like the average guy, in that my discretionary expenses will go down with time. The only way I see that my future expenses will surge up is if I need more medical help in later years. Of course, that is a potential effect that many of us are planning for. But then, perhaps I may just be another "average guy" who will croak early without spending years or decades in a nursing home, and Bernicke's model will prevail again.

When visiting relatives in nursing or convalescent homes, I saw that many residents did not last very long. That agrees with a statistic I read somewhere that the median stay of nursing home patients is only a few months before death. Been thinking that being just "average" in this aspect may not be a bad thing for myself.
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Old 02-10-2013, 09:57 PM   #148
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At what point did you notice that their reduced "consumerism" outweighed their need to spend more for age related services, health care, geezer amenities while traveling, etc., and therefore their total spending dropped noticeably? 65? 70? 75? 80?

Bernicke's plan calls for reducing geezer expenditures by 2% - 3% per year starting at age 56.
I think the reason Firecalc starts reducing expenditures at 56 (I guess from Bernicke - I've read his article but don't recall that exact detail) is because that is a time that probably most people are reducing expenditures -- but not because they are becoming enfeebled. For most people, that is probably the point at which they have completed raising and educating children (as someone who had her first child at 40 and my DH was 46 - that isn't true for us but we are outliers on this particular point).

I do see though that even so we do have reduced consumerism. Things we would have once spent for we don't spent for now. It is kind of a been there, done that thing so our expenses are less than they were, say, 10 years ago.

All of this is not to say that you shouldn't plan for level spending. I understand why you would do that. For me, I plan for reductions mostly for when the kids leave.

As far as your question - which wasn't addressed to me but I'll comment anyway. My mother is in her late 80s now and is much less active than she was years before. She just doesn't feel like going out all that much and tires very easily. She really hasn't spent a lot of money hiring others for services. When my dad died (she was in her mid-70s) she started hiring someone to mow the yard and within the last year she has started hiring someone to occasionally come in and clean her house. She does take a lot more prescriptions than she used to take - that is the main added health expenditure although with the medicare prescription plan it hasn't been a huge issue for her.
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Old 02-10-2013, 10:04 PM   #149
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Please correct me if I am wrong, but I think Bernicke described the results compiled from actual spending patterns of some sample of retirees, and not a spending model that he concocted.

So, we may dispute the validity of his observations by saying that his sample was not typical of the entire population, or there were flaws in his compilation of data, but we cannot say that he made this all up.

Caveat: I got the above impression from reading second-hand sources, and have not found and read the original article by Bernicke.

PS. And then, even if the above is true, Bernicke's data is still an average of many spending profiles, and individual cases of course may differ wildly from that average.
I haven't read the source works either, but if it is based on averages, FIRECALC shows the average retiree could succeed with ~ 6% WR (before any Bernicke adjustment).

Not very comforting for the 49.9% on the wrong side of history.

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Old 02-10-2013, 10:06 PM   #150
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Just now, I tried to click on the link that you posted that supposedly took me to the original Bernicke's article, but it did not work. I will try that again.
I cut and pasted from the FireCalc instructions. Perhaps you should go and use the link directly there.
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Anyway, I believe I will behave like the average guy, in that my discretionary expenses will go down with time. The only way I see that my future expenses will surge up is if I need more medical help in later years. Of course, that is a potential effect that many of us are planning for. But then, perhaps I may just be another "average guy" who will croak early without spending years or decades in a nursing home, and Bernicke's model will prevail again.

.
I don't doubt that our discretionary expenses will go down at some point in time as well. But the ages in FireCalc's Bernicke based spending reduction plan (starts at 56) and some anecdotal examples mentioned by posters here seem too young. DW and I are 65, haven't cut back on anything significant, and are just now starting to increase some spending in small ways to keep on keeping on. So far, just lawn service, some house and car maintenance chores and similar. But we will be picking up some additional traveling expenses in the next few years if all goes well health-wise.. Friends, even older than us (OMG!!!) have recently done river cruises in China and Germany and put us through hours of pictures and stories with the details. It seems like we could still handle that easily.

I share your concern on LTC planning and spend more time than I'm comfortable with planning to be self-insured for that. That's a thread in itself.

NWBound, I sincerely hope you're craving experiences and adventures until you're 110 and that you use some of that stash you've put away to do whatever the hell you want ...... That's what it's all about.
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Old 02-10-2013, 10:35 PM   #151
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I think the reason Firecalc starts reducing expenditures at 56 (I guess from Bernicke - I've read his article but don't recall that exact detail) is because that is a time that probably most people are reducing expenditures -- but not because they are becoming enfeebled. For most people, that is probably the point at which they have completed raising and educating children (as someone who had her first child at 40 and my DH was 46 - that isn't true for us but we are outliers on this particular point).
Yes, we are both 56 now, and our youngest child finished college last year. With the college tuition gone, our expenses just got a big reduction. Right on schedule per Bernicke's model!

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I do see though that even so we do have reduced consumerism. Things we would have once spent for we don't spent for now. It is kind of a been there, done that thing so our expenses are less than they were, say, 10 years ago.
Both of us stopped craving for "stuff" long ago. Things like new cars, clothing, fancy furniture, a bigger home, we care for less and less. And it's not even because we have "done that". Even things we have not owned or done, we simply do not care for anymore.

The only thing left that I still like to do is to travel, and I have been thinking I'd better do more of that soon, because in 10 or even 5 years, I may not even care for that.

Scary for a 56-yr old to say that, but then I am a geezer before my time.

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I haven't read the source works either, but if it is based on averages, FIRECALC shows the average retiree could succeed with ~ 6% WR (before any Bernicke adjustment).

Not very comforting for the 49.9% on the wrong side of history.
Sure! That's why I have run Bernicke's model in FIRECalc to see how high I could go, then chuckled and went back to 3.5%WR. And that 3.5%WR may be going down with time too, because I may not care to spend. Isn't that sad?

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I share your concern on LTC planning and spend more time than I'm comfortable with planning to be self-insured for that. That's a thread in itself.

NWBound, I sincerely hope you're craving experiences and adventures until you're 110 and that you use some of that stash you've put away to do whatever the hell you want ...... That's what it's all about.
I actually do not spend too much time thinking about LTC. I do not know why, but have a feeling that when my time comes, I will not linger long.

Thanks for your well wish. I do not know about traveling until the age of 110, but I can squeeze in a bit in the next 10 years, I will be happy and call my life a completely satisfactory one.
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Old 02-10-2013, 11:23 PM   #152
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I think the reason Firecalc starts reducing expenditures at 56 (I guess from Bernicke - I've read his article but don't recall that exact detail) is because that is a time that probably most people are reducing expenditures -- but not because they are becoming enfeebled. For most people, that is probably the point at which they have completed raising and educating children (as someone who had her first child at 40 and my DH was 46 - that isn't true for us but we are outliers on this particular point).
Good point. By the time DW and I RE'd at 55 and 58, we were long time empty nesters living a strict LBYM lifestyle since it appeared MegaCorp would be booting a lot of us soon. Not surprisingly, given time for recreation and to begin progress on a list of undone projects, spending increased.
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I do see though that even so we do have reduced consumerism. Things we would have once spent for we don't spent for now. It is kind of a been there, done that thing so our expenses are less than they were, say, 10 years ago.
We don't actually have a spending category labeled "consumerism" but since we've never been into consumerism, I'd guess we're probably close to even. One thing that will increase is spending on cars. I've spent so many hours crawling under cars and hitting my head on hoods, I'm really, really ready to drive newer cars. I delayed this because 2 yrs after retirment I bought a new Sienna mini-van for DS and his DW when our third grandchild was born. Now it's time for a new car FOR US!
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All of this is not to say that you shouldn't plan for level spending. I understand why you would do that. For me, I plan for reductions mostly for when the kids leave.
As would we. But as mentioned, we were long time empty nesters by the time RE came along.
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As far as your question - which wasn't addressed to me but I'll comment anyway. My mother is in her late 80s now and is much less active than she was years before. She just doesn't feel like going out all that much and tires very easily. She really hasn't spent a lot of money hiring others for services. When my dad died (she was in her mid-70s) she started hiring someone to mow the yard and within the last year she has started hiring someone to occasionally come in and clean her house. She does take a lot more prescriptions than she used to take - that is the main added health expenditure although with the medicare prescription plan it hasn't been a huge issue for her.
My MIL is also in her late 80's and her experiences are similar to your mom's. MIL did switch from a house to a condo though...... BTW, my MIL is another reason why I have to plan for no reduction in retirement spending, at least for now. We supplement her SS only income and some dental work and increases in food prices and condo association dues have cost me a bit the past couple of years.

I guess the age range I'm talking about in regard to spending more, not less, in retirement is our 60's and 70's though. Even a "never say die" guy like me can accept a reduction in activities in our 80's, if we're lucky enough to still be spending at all then.
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Old 02-10-2013, 11:49 PM   #153
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I actually do not spend too much time thinking about LTC. I do not know why, but have a feeling that when my time comes, I will not linger long.
.
I'd like to not spend too much time thinking about LTC but I need to get a plan together that DW can handle should I be the one "in the home." IMO, we can afford to self-insure with no impoverishment of the remaining spouse. But DW is definitely not into money management and without me there to shuffle the deck to come up with some quick, immediate cash, it would not be pretty. Probably the subject for another thread.
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Old 02-11-2013, 12:14 AM   #154
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Anything is possible :73-year-old becomes oldest woman to climb Mount Everest - Telegraph

But it's certainly a challenge to generalize from an outlier's experience.
Yeah, it is a challenge to generalize from an outlier....... I'm afraid the 73 yr old mountain climber will have to do it without me!

Our experience is very different than hers. We're paying more, and anticipating paying more, to do things similar to what we've already been doing, not adding mountain climbing to our list of geezer activities. It is a funny thought though.......

Substitute cruising for camping to satisfy our travel lust. Stay at a lodge and use a guide on fishing trips instead of renting a cabin and doing everything ourselves. Paying to have more house and automobile work done by others. Pay for a trainer at the health club to keep my lazy ass motivated. Maybe try a little snowbirding. That sort of thing.
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Old 02-11-2013, 01:33 PM   #155
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Michael Kitces has a well written response to the Wade Pfau's paper on withdrawal rates in a low interest environment.

Safe Withdrawal Rates In Today's Low Yield Environment - Walking On The Edge Of A Cliff? - kitces.com | Nerd's Eye View

Read the comments too.
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Old 02-11-2013, 04:32 PM   #156
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I am not sure the problem is with the 4% rule, the problem has to do with the spectrum of risk profiles that abound after the market turmoil we have had since 2008.

Some investors have moved all their retirement assets to CD's at the one extreme. Do you think this investor can withdraw an inflation adjusted 4% (inflation adjustment is the basis for the 4% rule) from a CD account for very long. This is of course entirely dependend on what interest rates do.

The other end of the spectrum is my own retirement portfolio that is currently generating over 7% from a group of dividend payers, at least half of which have been increasing their dividends for over 30 years (some over 50). I would potentially not have to even touch the principal in this account, except in the few cases where a dividend payer "fell off the wagon" so to speak. The increasing dividends are also inflation protected to the extent that each company continues to increase it's dividend on a yearly basis.

In conclusion I still think the 4% rule is very much alive, as much as everyone keeps trying to redefine it. It has really not been able to be redefined over the past 50+ years and I see no need to do so now.

I see more of a need for realistic expectations based on a person's risk profile and prudent financial advice.
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Old 02-11-2013, 06:13 PM   #157
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Some investors have moved all their retirement assets to CD's at the one extreme. Do you think this investor can withdraw an inflation adjusted 4% (inflation adjustment is the basis for the 4% rule) from a CD account for very long. This is of course entirely dependend on what interest rates do.
...if they have income sources other than from their portfolio returns a CD portfolio might work.....but they could also be more aggressive safe in the knowledge that they have income that is not directly dependent on the stock market.
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100% CD withdraw rate
Old 02-12-2013, 01:04 AM   #158
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100% CD withdraw rate

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...if they have income sources other than from their portfolio returns a CD portfolio might work.....but they could also be more aggressive safe in the knowledge that they have income that is not directly dependent on the stock market.
The whole point of the risk averse is they don't want anything to do with stocks.

The current best price for a 5 yr jumbo CD at bankrate.com is 1.85%. If the rates did not improve the person would be broke after 20 years at a 4% inflation adjusted withdraw rate (using 4% for inflation.)

fd
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Old 02-12-2013, 06:35 AM   #159
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The whole point of the risk averse is they don't want anything to do with stocks.
I'd say that the smart risk averse folks don't want to rely on the stock market for their income. Once that is covered from rent, SS, pensions, annuities etc why not take on some risk with the rest of the portfolio.
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Old 02-12-2013, 07:22 AM   #160
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I'd say that the smart risk averse folks don't want to rely on the stock market for their income. Once that is covered from rent, SS, pensions, annuities etc why not take on some risk with the rest of the portfolio.
That may sound good in theory but most of the risk averse folks I know don't want anything at all to do with the market, which they consider to be nothing more than legalized gambling.
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