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Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 08:41 AM   #1
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Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

Ok, time for me to eat my words. I didn't think oil would ever reach $60 again, shall we shoot for $40

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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 09:05 AM   #2
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

i've been waiting for someone to mention the price of oil ... commodities anyone?
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 09:22 AM   #3
 
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

Remember this thread?

http://early-retirement.org/forums/i...p?topic=8970.0
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 09:37 AM   #4
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

i have some recollection of the following:
Quote:
Originally Posted by d
most things that follow economic cycles overshoot on both the upside and the downside ... i'd guess (but am not betting) that in addition to RE, we'll see oil and other commodities (including gold) "correct", and suspect that submerging markets have not fully "corrected".*
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 09:47 AM   #5
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

This thread is fun:

http://early-retirement.org/forums/i...p?topic=7118.0


And this was the original "OMG $4 gas" thread:

http://early-retirement.org/forums/i...p?topic=4066.0

looks like sanity and fundamentals are finally coming back to the energy markets.
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 10:11 AM   #6
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
This thread is fun:

http://early-retirement.org/forums/i...p?topic=7118.0


And this was the original "OMG $4 gas" thread:

http://early-retirement.org/forums/i...p?topic=4066.0

looks like sanity and fundamentals are finally coming back to the energy markets.
Just 'til after the elections.
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 02:15 PM   #7
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

tinfoil hats!
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 02:58 PM   #8
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

I haven't seen anything that would merit being called a crash. Who would expect any commodity or stock or whatever to necessarily hold every price point? The economy may be weakening. And though it is hard to see that the risks in the Mid-East have lessened, the perception seems to be that they have.

So factors of supply and demand and projections of these two elements will always be waxing and waning. Have a look at monthly average prices, the picture looks different.

A crash is what happened to the NASDAQ. Going on 7 years now, and it is still down 60%. Ditto the Nikkei.

Check back 7 years form now. I doubt the oil bears will be growling then, except perhaps from a much higher price point.

Ha


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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 03:03 PM   #9
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

I tend to agree with Ha on this one. I see a correction and some see-sawing. A crash would be $20 oil. No way we are getting down there absent some kind of global recession, and even then it would have to be a severe one. Demand is too high and too many reserves are un-economic under $40 OR SO.
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 05:03 PM   #10
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

Here is an interesting counterpoint to the more bearish energy arguments that have been presented.

http://www.itulip.com/energyandmoney.htm

Esp look at part 2, Energy and Thermodynamics.

Ha
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 05:09 PM   #11
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

One things for sure, this is not Bush and Cheney's fault. They are only responsible when oil costs increase as I understand it.
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 05:13 PM   #12
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeyd
One things for sure, this is not Bush and Cheney's fault.
It's Clinton's fault, dude--get with the program. That's Hilary Clinton.
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 05:16 PM   #13
 
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeyd
One things for sure, this is not Bush and Cheney's fault. They are only responsible when oil costs increase as I understand it.
Is this coming from a guy that used to blame Carter for screwing up the entire economy in 4 years? -
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 05:59 PM   #14
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

A buddy works for a pump company ... reports that at $70 / barrel oil and gas companies wiped out the pump supply and placed orders for many more. TThe theory was at these prices we need to sell everything we can possibly produce. Sooo, they did ... now the out come is obvious.

Gota love capitolism.
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 06:06 PM   #15
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

Some say that the fundamental is $50 plus $x for uncertainty/risk.
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 06:14 PM   #16
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
Is this coming from a guy that used to blame Carter for screwing up the entire economy in 4 years?* -
The problem with Carter is that he couldn't do anything meaningful as president in either 4 or 40 years.
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 06:17 PM   #17
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
Some say that the fundamental is $50 plus $x for uncertainty/risk.
"Some" don't have any idea what is happening in the oil patch. There is actually a horrific glut of oil and natural gas. I'd say that the price is more like $35 plux $x for uncertainty. I might be wrong but most likely on the high side.

To contain what I see as a price collapse, the Saudis will have to cut 20%.
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 06:24 PM   #18
 
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2B
The problem with Carter is that he couldn't do anything meaningful as president in either 4 or 40 years.
Actually he set the stage to cure inflation by appointing a Fed Reserve Chairman that raised interest rates to 20% to tame it. He was willing to commit political suicide for the sake of the country. He was also willing to tackle the energy problem about 30 years ago. The problem is that the masses are 'now orientated' and while they claim they want leadership, they are poor followers.

You sir are a sorry student of history.
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 06:31 PM   #19
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
Actually he set the stage to cure inflation by appointing a Fed Reserve Chairman that raised interest rates to 20% to tame it. He was willing to commit political suicide for the sake of the country. He was also willing to tackle the energy problem about 30 years ago. The problem is that the masses are now orientated and while they claim they want leadership, they are poor followers.

You sir are a sorry student of history and a poor follower.
I am a student of history, although I am a "poor follower".
I follow no one but myself. Anyway, Carter is/was a terrible
embarrassment. I can see how he could get elected
(the "moron theory"). Still, he would get my vote as the worst
president ever.

JG
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60
Old 09-25-2006, 06:43 PM   #20
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Re: Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

Quote:
The problem with Carter is that he couldn't do anything meaningful as president in either 4 or 40 years
... just imagine what he could have done in 40 years!! * that said, i'm more than happy to leave that "discussion" to JG and C-T ... i'll just sit back and watch.
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