Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
ECRI says Recession Unavoidable
Old 09-30-2011, 10:20 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
Snidely Whiplash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 153
ECRI says Recession Unavoidable

Sheesh. I knew things weren't great but I didnt expect this. Are the claims made (ECRI never having sent a false recession signal) correct?

“It’s Going to Get a Lot Worse”: ECRI’s Achuthan Says New Recession Unavoidable | Daily Ticker - Yahoo! Finance=

With all the negativity I see in the media, I guess we really can talk ourselves into a recession.

.
__________________

__________________
"Adversity does not build character, it reveals it." - James Lane Allen
Snidely Whiplash is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 09-30-2011, 10:38 AM   #2
Full time employment: Posting here.
NYEXPAT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 862
Based on past history, I would agree but Warren Buffett said today otherwise!
__________________

__________________
NYEXPAT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2011, 10:50 AM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,359
Yes recessions are inevitable. The question is only of when they will occur.

I also predict rain in our future is inevitable.
__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2011, 11:03 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
You know the old saw: Economists have predicted 9 of the last 4 recessions.

Discount anything on the "daily ticker" by at least 75%.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2011, 11:07 AM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
Snidely Whiplash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 153
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
You know the old saw: Economists have predicted 9 of the last 4 recessions.

Discount anything on the "daily ticker" by at least 75%.
Thats why I inquired as to the truthfulness of ECRI's claim to have never sent a false recession signal. I'm not that familiar with ECRI or the Daily Ticker.
__________________
"Adversity does not build character, it reveals it." - James Lane Allen
Snidely Whiplash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2011, 11:07 AM   #6
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 401
What he's saying seems almost obvious to me. Seems like there's much more bad news out there than good.
__________________
DallasGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2011, 11:44 AM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
ECRI is legit, but is only expressing an opinion. Daily Ticker is a soapbox for lunatics.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2011, 12:31 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,380
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
Daily Ticker is a soapbox for lunatics.
Absolutely, like recent guests Robert Shiller and Mort Zuckerman.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2011, 12:37 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
Absolutely, like recent guests Robert Shiller and Mort Zuckerman.

Ha
Daily Ticker seems to want to showcase only the most extreme viewpoints, regardless of where they come from. A steady diet of that is not healthy.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2011, 01:44 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Tadpole's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,169
Must be that copper thing. (I never heard about the copper indicator before a couple of days ago. Now it is all the rage and seems like everyone, but me, knew.)
__________________
Tadpole is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2011, 05:01 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wildcat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
I recall the ECRI guy being on CNBC after the big collapse. We started to rally off the lows and I was quite skeptical at the time (thinking it was just a dead cat bounce). ECRI's message was very positive at the time while other "experts" were saying stay away. He seemed to have nailed most of the ride up for what it's worth.
__________________
"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
wildcat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2011, 09:40 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,526
The guy admits that last summer ECRI was saying "No Double Dip". Now he's saying we are either in recession or Q4 is the recession.

And as the ECRI guy says, we are at 2 years into the expansion cycle and the great majority of historical expansion cycles only last about 3 years. So a prediction of a recession at this point is just playing the odds.

I guess it isn't that surprising given we are 15% off the recent market highs.
__________________
Retired in 2013 at age 33. Keeping busy reading, blogging, relaxing, gaming, and enjoying the outdoors with my wife and 3 kids (5, 11, and 12).
FUEGO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2011, 09:59 PM   #13
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 112
It does not matter if we go into a Depression or a Recession. What matters is your own Economy.
__________________
ER Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2011, 08:17 AM   #14
Recycles dryer sheets
Snidely Whiplash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 153
Apperantly he was making the rounds Friday. CNBC link if they are any more legitimate than Daily Ticker:

http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/compone...bcplayershare/

I have yet to read anywhere that his previous calls, premised on the company's leading indicators, have given a false recession signal.

.
__________________
"Adversity does not build character, it reveals it." - James Lane Allen
Snidely Whiplash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2011, 08:24 AM   #15
Recycles dryer sheets
Snidely Whiplash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 153
Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO View Post
the great majority of historical expansion cycles only last about 3 years. So a prediction of a recession at this point is just playing the odds.
Really? Recessions are historically that frequent? Assuming they last a year and expansion cycles average three years we then have recessions every four years or so?

As bad as I (and my portfolio) felt during the "Great Recession" I was hoping for a bit longer until I had to go through it again.

.
__________________
"Adversity does not build character, it reveals it." - James Lane Allen
Snidely Whiplash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2011, 09:49 AM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snidely Whiplash View Post
Really? Recessions are historically that frequent? Assuming they last a year and expansion cycles average three years we then have recessions every four years or so?

As bad as I (and my portfolio) felt during the "Great Recession" I was hoping for a bit longer until I had to go through it again.

.
The history is kind of split. Prior to the late 80s or so, expansions typically lasted about 3 years and then you had some kind of recession. In the last 20 or 25 years, we have had longer expansions (6 or 7 years). If you average it, you get something like 4 year averages for expansion time.

I would say that circumstances are unusual vs. the historical record in that the damage done by credit crunches tends to be longer lasting. Whether we technically lapse into recession or not is unclear (I think probably not, but its possible). Instead, we are likely to go through a prolonged period of low growth as the damage done slowly heals. I am not really expeting robust growth until 2015 or so and that has been my expectation for some time.

That said, look at the economic data. Lots of mixed signals, but the mix has turned somewhat more positive lately. There is a ton of fear in the market after the big swoon a couple years ago, but as far as I can tell it seems overdone.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2011, 10:30 AM   #17
Full time employment: Posting here.
NYEXPAT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 862
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snidely Whiplash View Post
Really? Recessions are historically that frequent? Assuming they last a year and expansion cycles average three years we then have recessions every four years or so?

As bad as I (and my portfolio) felt during the "Great Recession" I was hoping for a bit longer until I had to go through it again.

.
Fortunately in Peru (several other countries as well) we skipped (the Great Recession) and although the stock market suffered some, home values have increased by 300% over the past 4 years.

The government is telling everyone to brace for a "Global Slowdown" as opposed to a recession and exporters are shifting away from the USA (Now tied with Switzerland) as our second largest export market after China.

I also subscribe to the low growth theory's currently in vogue. However, unless there is major "political" and "structural" change the USA will be stuck in stagnation for at least a decade.
__________________
NYEXPAT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2011, 10:34 AM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,068
Quote:
Originally Posted by NYEXPAT View Post
Fortunately in Peru (several other countries as well) we skipped (the Great Recession) and although the stock market suffered some, home values have increased by 300% over the past 4 years.
Wow. Real estate bubble in the making...
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2011, 12:07 PM   #19
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 4,929
One thing to keep an eye on...

If you punch up a chart of a typical stock market index like the S&P 500, and overlay the periods when the economy was in recession, you'll see something interesting. Mr Market tends to hit his low at or just before the start of a recession.

It's that whole forward-looking thing...
__________________
M Paquette is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2011, 01:25 PM   #20
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,406
Quote:
Originally Posted by M Paquette View Post
One thing to keep an eye on...

If you punch up a chart of a typical stock market index like the S&P 500, and overlay the periods when the economy was in recession, you'll see something interesting. Mr Market tends to hit his low at or just before the start of a recession.

It's that whole forward-looking thing...
I beg to differ. Looking at the last 5 recessions as called by the NBER: 12/07, 3/01, 7/90, 7/81, 1/80, the S&P at the beginning and end of the month, and the S&P 3 and 6 months later, it is lower in 9 of those 10 moments. I would agree that the stock market has already begun it's decline by the recession start date. These are incredibly difficult to time, and once fear begins to dominate one's investing outlook that probably means it time to buy.

In this case unemployment is already quite high so a deterioration may not have the same big impact as in the past. On the other hand, the "idiots in charge" factor characterizing politics around many western developed economies add a new dimension to portfolio risk. But it does keep us busy around here
__________________

__________________
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:37 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.