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09-30-2011, 09:38 AM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 1,992
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Based on past history, I would agree but Warren Buffett said today otherwise!
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09-30-2011, 09:50 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,391
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Yes recessions are inevitable. The question is only of when they will occur.
I also predict rain in our future is inevitable.
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09-30-2011, 10:03 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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You know the old saw: Economists have predicted 9 of the last 4 recessions.
Discount anything on the "daily ticker" by at least 75%.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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09-30-2011, 10:07 AM
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#5
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
You know the old saw: Economists have predicted 9 of the last 4 recessions.
Discount anything on the "daily ticker" by at least 75%.
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Thats why I inquired as to the truthfulness of ECRI's claim to have never sent a false recession signal. I'm not that familiar with ECRI or the Daily Ticker.
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Love others. Forgive. Be kind.
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09-30-2011, 10:07 AM
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#6
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 585
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What he's saying seems almost obvious to me. Seems like there's much more bad news out there than good.
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09-30-2011, 10:44 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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ECRI is legit, but is only expressing an opinion. Daily Ticker is a soapbox for lunatics.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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09-30-2011, 11:31 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Daily Ticker is a soapbox for lunatics.
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Absolutely, like recent guests Robert Shiller and Mort Zuckerman.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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09-30-2011, 11:37 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
Absolutely, like recent guests Robert Shiller and Mort Zuckerman.
Ha
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Daily Ticker seems to want to showcase only the most extreme viewpoints, regardless of where they come from. A steady diet of that is not healthy.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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09-30-2011, 12:44 PM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,434
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Must be that copper thing. (I never heard about the copper indicator before a couple of days ago. Now it is all the rage and seems like everyone, but me, knew.)
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09-30-2011, 04:01 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
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I recall the ECRI guy being on CNBC after the big collapse. We started to rally off the lows and I was quite skeptical at the time (thinking it was just a dead cat bounce). ECRI's message was very positive at the time while other "experts" were saying stay away. He seemed to have nailed most of the ride up for what it's worth.
__________________
"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
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09-30-2011, 08:40 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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The guy admits that last summer ECRI was saying "No Double Dip". Now he's saying we are either in recession or Q4 is the recession.
And as the ECRI guy says, we are at 2 years into the expansion cycle and the great majority of historical expansion cycles only last about 3 years. So a prediction of a recession at this point is just playing the odds.
I guess it isn't that surprising given we are 15% off the recent market highs.
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Retired in 2013 at age 33. Keeping busy reading, blogging, relaxing, gaming, and enjoying the outdoors with my wife and 3 kids (8, 13, and 15).
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09-30-2011, 08:59 PM
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#13
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 112
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It does not matter if we go into a Depression or a Recession. What matters is your own Economy.
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10-01-2011, 07:17 AM
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#14
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 206
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Apperantly he was making the rounds Friday. CNBC link if they are any more legitimate than Daily Ticker:
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/compone...bcplayershare/
I have yet to read anywhere that his previous calls, premised on the company's leading indicators, have given a false recession signal.
.
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Love others. Forgive. Be kind.
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10-01-2011, 07:24 AM
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#15
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO
the great majority of historical expansion cycles only last about 3 years. So a prediction of a recession at this point is just playing the odds.
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Really? Recessions are historically that frequent? Assuming they last a year and expansion cycles average three years we then have recessions every four years or so?
As bad as I (and my portfolio) felt during the "Great Recession" I was hoping for a bit longer until I had to go through it again.
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__________________
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Love others. Forgive. Be kind.
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10-01-2011, 08:49 AM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snidely Whiplash
Really? Recessions are historically that frequent? Assuming they last a year and expansion cycles average three years we then have recessions every four years or so?
As bad as I (and my portfolio) felt during the "Great Recession" I was hoping for a bit longer until I had to go through it again.
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The history is kind of split. Prior to the late 80s or so, expansions typically lasted about 3 years and then you had some kind of recession. In the last 20 or 25 years, we have had longer expansions (6 or 7 years). If you average it, you get something like 4 year averages for expansion time.
I would say that circumstances are unusual vs. the historical record in that the damage done by credit crunches tends to be longer lasting. Whether we technically lapse into recession or not is unclear (I think probably not, but its possible). Instead, we are likely to go through a prolonged period of low growth as the damage done slowly heals. I am not really expeting robust growth until 2015 or so and that has been my expectation for some time.
That said, look at the economic data. Lots of mixed signals, but the mix has turned somewhat more positive lately. There is a ton of fear in the market after the big swoon a couple years ago, but as far as I can tell it seems overdone.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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10-01-2011, 09:30 AM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 1,992
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snidely Whiplash
Really? Recessions are historically that frequent? Assuming they last a year and expansion cycles average three years we then have recessions every four years or so?
As bad as I (and my portfolio) felt during the "Great Recession" I was hoping for a bit longer until I had to go through it again.
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Fortunately in Peru (several other countries as well) we skipped (the Great Recession) and although the stock market suffered some, home values have increased by 300% over the past 4 years.
The government is telling everyone to brace for a "Global Slowdown" as opposed to a recession and exporters are shifting away from the USA (Now tied with Switzerland) as our second largest export market after China.
I also subscribe to the low growth theory's currently in vogue. However, unless there is major "political" and "structural" change the USA will be stuck in stagnation for at least a decade.
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10-01-2011, 09:34 AM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,022
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NYEXPAT
Fortunately in Peru (several other countries as well) we skipped (the Great Recession) and although the stock market suffered some, home values have increased by 300% over the past 4 years.
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Wow. Real estate bubble in the making...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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10-01-2011, 11:07 AM
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#19
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Portland
Posts: 4,946
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One thing to keep an eye on...
If you punch up a chart of a typical stock market index like the S&P 500, and overlay the periods when the economy was in recession, you'll see something interesting. Mr Market tends to hit his low at or just before the start of a recession.
It's that whole forward-looking thing...
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10-01-2011, 12:25 PM
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#20
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M Paquette
One thing to keep an eye on...
If you punch up a chart of a typical stock market index like the S&P 500, and overlay the periods when the economy was in recession, you'll see something interesting. Mr Market tends to hit his low at or just before the start of a recession.
It's that whole forward-looking thing...
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I beg to differ. Looking at the last 5 recessions as called by the NBER: 12/07, 3/01, 7/90, 7/81, 1/80, the S&P at the beginning and end of the month, and the S&P 3 and 6 months later, it is lower in 9 of those 10 moments. I would agree that the stock market has already begun it's decline by the recession start date. These are incredibly difficult to time, and once fear begins to dominate one's investing outlook that probably means it time to buy.
In this case unemployment is already quite high so a deterioration may not have the same big impact as in the past. On the other hand, the "idiots in charge" factor characterizing politics around many western developed economies add a new dimension to portfolio risk. But it does keep us busy around here
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