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d · 10-10-2006, 01:20 PM

with midterm elections looming … i wonder about the effect on the stock market. iirc, historically the market performs best during the 2nd two years of a presidential term.
1) does anyone have the data?
2) anyone willing to bet on it?

Nords · 10-10-2006, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by d

with midterm elections looming … i wonder about the effect on the stock market. iirc, historically the market performs best during the 2nd two years of a presidential term.
1) does anyone have the data?

Not at hand, but you're right-- the Republicans have to start pumping up the economy and the Democrats are happy to help. Seasonality also starts kicking in somewhere around Oct-Nov and we'll get a few months of holiday cheer before next summer.

It reminds me that 9 Oct 2002 was the bottom of a nice seasonal rally.

Quote:

Originally Posted by d

2) anyone willing to bet on it?

We're fully invested and not really changing our asset allocation so, yes, I'm happy to sit back, wait for the train to start moving, & enjoy the scenery.

Poster "RonO" over at FundAlarm is a big believer in the Santa Claus express, and he'll be posting about it soon...

Mach1 · 10-10-2006, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by d

with midterm elections looming … i wonder about the effect on the stock market. iirc, historically the market performs best during the 2nd two years of a presidential term.
1) does anyone have the data?
2) anyone willing to bet on it?

I have no data other than my IRA Statement, the bottom line has been good since early this year. The DOW is well over 11,800, it may hit 12,000 so yeah you are on.

Mach1

wabmester · 10-10-2006, 03:38 PM

Article

The 12-month period beginning in October of the second year of the presidential term has enjoyed average total returns of more than 28 percent, on average. And since 1933, not a single third year 12-month period beginning in October has registered a loss (the worst return was a gain of 6.6 percent).

maddythebeagle · 10-10-2006, 04:08 PM

Interesting...wab has a chart for just about everything.... 8)

MasterBlaster · 10-10-2006, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wab

Article

The 12-month period beginning in October of the second year of the presidential term has enjoyed average total returns of more than 28 percent, on average. And since 1933, not a single third year 12-month period beginning in October has registered a loss (the worst return was a gain of 6.6 percent).

So from the chart, if we add the 8 % YTD gains that we already have from the S&P 500 to the expected ~28% gains indicated from the chart for the Oct-Sep September, we should be up by 36 % YTD by the end of Sep but it will back off to only ~30% YTD by the end of the year.

Mortgage that house, place your bets, the easy money is just around the corner.