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End of Recession (or not)
Old 06-28-2009, 11:05 AM   #1
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End of Recession (or not)

Interesting article - we might have a ways to go yet....

The End Of The Recession? Please

Link at the end is a *very* interesting read on health care costs

Annals of Medicine: The Cost Conundrum: Reporting & Essays: The New Yorker
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Old 06-28-2009, 11:59 AM   #2
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I hereby nominate, “Riddle me this, Batman” as today’s market expression of the day. Words of the times, just like debtenfreude.

John Mauldin:

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Riddle me this, Batman. Did the market see the recession in October of 2007? We were already in recession and the S&P 500 ... was making new highs!....
Another word from Mauldin I like is "rubbish." Very entertaining writer.

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We keep getting told that the market is telling us "something," usually that the recession is going to end. For some reason, people keep repeating the bromide that the market looks out about 6 months. To that I politely say, rubbish.
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Old 06-28-2009, 12:11 PM   #3
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For the last several months the ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) has been predicting that the recession would end this summer and now says it is imminent:

"Following a 28-week upturn, WLI growth has broken into positive territory for the first time in over 22 months -- an affirmation that an end to the recession is at hand," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI. WLI Growth Turns Positive

And, yes, they did call the start of this recession as well. And the start and end of the 2001 recession.

Yes, it certainly does seem that the market completely missed the current recession which started in Dec 2007 (not Oct) - but still very close to the time the market was hitting new all time highs!

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Old 06-28-2009, 12:13 PM   #4
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The ECRI has a pretty impressive track record. Hopefully that will continue.
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Old 06-28-2009, 12:32 PM   #5
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WSJ had an article saying "most economists" now predict an end to the recession sometime in 3Q 09 (i.e., in a few days to a few months from now).

I prefer to believe it as my job is somewhat on the line. I work for a small startup and we are doing well but our sales would do better if the general economic attitude of our customers became more optimistic.

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Old 06-28-2009, 02:22 PM   #6
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The problem is that people are paying down debt (did someone mentioned deleveraging?), and gasp, argh, s-a-v-i-n-g money!

The end of the world is nigh...
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Old 06-28-2009, 02:47 PM   #7
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The problem is that people are paying down debt (did someone mentioned deleveraging?), and gasp, argh, s-a-v-i-n-g money!
It's like taking medicine. You know it will be good for you in the long run but in the here and now, it tastes horrible.
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Old 06-28-2009, 09:35 PM   #8
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I can add this as fact. I am still w***ing and we have just started increasing production because of increased sales and forecasted good sales for the next quarter.
I am hopeful that this is happening in other manufacturing areas as well.
I am ready for better times. Lord knows, we all need it right about now.
This recession has lasted too long already.
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Old 06-28-2009, 09:39 PM   #9
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I can add this as fact. I am still w***ing and we have just started increasing production because of increased sales and forecasted good sales for the next quarter.
I am hopeful that this is happening in other manufacturing areas as well.
I am ready for better times. Lord knows, we all need it right about now.
This recession has lasted too long already.
What are you selling? We don't see any increase in sales other than to some customers who ran their inventories real low and are now re-filling while prices are depressed.
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Old 06-28-2009, 10:31 PM   #10
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The problem is that people are paying down debt (did someone mentioned deleveraging?), and gasp, argh, s-a-v-i-n-g money!
Maybe "people" are paying down debt, but thanks to their govt leadership they're further in debt than ever before and sinking fast........
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Old 06-29-2009, 07:53 PM   #11
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What are you selling? We don't see any increase in sales other than to some customers who ran their inventories real low and are now re-filling while prices are depressed.
Base chemicals. Units are ramping up from where they have been for the last year or so.
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Old 06-29-2009, 08:53 PM   #12
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Base chemicals. Units are ramping up from where they have been for the last year or so.
Sounds promising, I hope it is not just a temporary thing. Our business is specialty chemicals and textile dyes and some of our biggest markets are automotive, construction, household appliances, airplane manufacturers, clothing etc. One of our sites in England is closing altogether and another in Spain is being moth-balled for a year. Interesting this - the Spanish government pays 40% of the workers' salaries, and the company pays another 40%. I think I could manage not working for a year on 80% salary and full benefits
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Old 06-29-2009, 09:44 PM   #13
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My economic barometer says things are just as crappy today as they were last fall. My barometer?...........The barbershop.

Last fall business was so bad the owner laid off the second barber and business hasn't changed one iota since then. I get my hair cut every three weeks on Tuesday at 9:30. There is usually one person ahead of me and then it's my turn. After me there is usually no one for at least a half hour. Sometimes I hang around for a cup of coffee and shoot the breeze till the next customer. Doesn't look good, at least from a barber's perspective these days.
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Old 06-29-2009, 11:42 PM   #14
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It's hard to tell because my company's sales are very lumpy, but things seem to be on an gradual up slope over this past quarter.

We're a small start up and possibly are on track for a third straight year of doubling revenues.

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