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End of the World II -- the sequel
Old 10-24-2008, 06:24 AM   #1
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End of the World II -- the sequel

Have you heard? We're going into a recession. That brilliant thought seemed to have started the mess in Asia and what we'll get blasted with later today.

Have we capitulated recently? Or is that copulated? I keep getting confused.

I'm ready for the volatility to stop. Well, I'm at least ready for the downside volatility to stop.
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Old 10-24-2008, 07:53 AM   #2
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Have you heard? We're going into a recession. That brilliant thought seemed to have started the mess in Asia and what we'll get blasted with later today.

Have we capitulated recently? Or is that copulated? I keep getting confused.

I'm ready for the volatility to stop. Well, I'm at least ready for the downside volatility to stop.
I think you need a can of my medicine.
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Old 10-24-2008, 08:18 AM   #3
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Have we capitulated recently? Or is that copulated? I keep getting confused.
Close, though maybe "buggered" is a more appropriate term...
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Old 10-24-2008, 01:09 PM   #4
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Im going to make a bold prediction that early next week there is a report that we are facing a deep recession, and we sell off again. Is there anyone who doesnt know this already? I dont understand why report after report about it causes more waves of selling from people who are suppossed to be smarter than me.
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Old 10-24-2008, 01:20 PM   #5
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It just seems that the market is looking for any information to react to. If most of the information (and calling some of these reports 'information' is a long stretch) is negative, well ...
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Old 10-24-2008, 01:23 PM   #6
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I've been waiting for this recession for a year now. Please let it happen now so we can get past this.
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Old 10-24-2008, 01:26 PM   #7
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Heard on CNBC, the market might bottom on Monday based on correlations between market and lunar cycles...

To the question "Will the market bottom on Monday", my eight ball answers "signs point to yes". Hey, sounds as good an answer as any...
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Old 10-24-2008, 01:37 PM   #8
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I think there is a lot of forced selling and deleveraging going on and it means that the market action has little to do with fundamentals at the moment.

As an example, I was told yesterday by someone in a position to know that roughly 70% of all convertible bonds in existence were owned by hedge funds, many/most/all of which have some degree of leverage. So no matter how fat the spread and how solid the underlying credit, the bonds are all being whacked day by day as lenders raise margin requirements, demand repayment and otherwise call in their markers. The selling has little or nothing to do with fundamentals and when it will end is anyone's guess. But my suspicion is that it will end suddenly, which augurs for a sharp snap-back.
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Old 10-24-2008, 01:53 PM   #9
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But my suspicion is that it will end suddenly, which augurs for a sharp snap-back.
Gimme another 23 days for my tax-loss selling deadline, and then I'll start the buying frenzy all by myself...
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Old 10-24-2008, 02:09 PM   #10
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I think you need a can of my medicine.
I'll opt for a bottle.

I'm just getting tired of the massive swings day in and day out.

I've rerun my number again showing that my cash/CD amount can still more than cover my bare bones retirement budget. I keep telling myself to ignore it but I can't.

One good thing about my "conversion" to being an asset allocator is that it has kept me from jumping into stocks and fixed income assets all the way down. My old self would have moved all of the chips into the market.

I see the unbelieveable yields of highly rated preferreds and my mouth waters. You can get over 10% on companies the Treasury is pumping money into to make sure they can't fail. Closed end funds are selling with 20 - 50% discounts against beaten down NAVs. I've refrained from loading up on these.
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