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Re: ER Worries My personal Dilemma. Any Thoughts?
Old 10-24-2004, 05:29 AM   #21
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Re: ER Worries My personal Dilemma. Any Thoughts?

Shokwave,
Congrats on getting to log some good time in the Caribbean now that Hurricane season is (almost?) over.

Your timing reminded me of an old stock market bromide: "Sell in May and go away" or something like that, implying that there were months when it paid to be out of the market (I think you were supposed to get back in by Christmas but can't remember the whole saying, anyway, efficient market people have no doubt turned it on its ear by now).

Still, my personal experience is that if it is possible to be somewhere (sailing) where you don't worry about stocks for a long period of time, that is exactly the time to be _in_ the market, or at least automaticaly DCA'ing into equities. Its the overanalysis in my experience that causes the twitchy fingers and bad decisions.

So, if you want a contrarian view, (since everybody knows stocks are going down, right?!), I'd try to set up some sort of equity positions or DCA, a nice batch of small, international and value index or low-cost funds, and then go away sailing for six months. And don't check on your stocks while you're gone -- no fair hunting down copies of the Herald Tribune in Antigua--

Have fun; try to send us postings of your ports of call from time to time from an Internet Cafe -- I remember finding a nice one down at the water's edge in downtown Roadtown, Tortola, and have found them in most other places around the bigger ports in the Caribbean. (Maybe you're really high tech and have internet access from the boat?)

ESRBob
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Re: ER Worries My personal Dilemma. Any Thoughts?
Old 10-24-2004, 06:56 AM   #22
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Re: ER Worries My personal Dilemma. Any Thoughts?

Quote:
Shokwave,
No fair hunting down copies of the Herald Tribune in Antigua--

Have fun; try to send us postings of your ports of call from time to time from an Internet Cafe -- I remember finding a nice one down at the water's edge in downtown Roadtown, Tortola, and have found them in most other places around the bigger ports in the Caribbean. (Maybe you're really high tech and have internet access from the boat?)

ESRBob
Awww! As far as paragraph 2 is concerned you can see our travels on my web page. Simply Click on "Cruising The Caribbean" this will be our second year doing it. There are plenty of Tortola and the Road Town Marina. Most are at Nanny Cay on Tortola.

www.impconcepts.com (Ignore my hobby portions of the site)

SWR
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Re: ER Worries My personal Dilemma. Any Thoughts?
Old 10-24-2004, 08:55 PM   #23
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Re: ER Worries My personal Dilemma. Any Thoughts?

SWR,

You complained that to DCA "would take forever".

Actually, what you try to accomplish with DCA is
to spread your investment out over a business
cycle to avoid investing at the peak.

Gurus like Bernstein and Bogle recommend 2-3 years
is about right.

Studies have shown that "plunging" wins over DCA
about 60-70% of the time, but the advantage does
not outweigh the risk, IMHO ...... especially when you
are talking about your retirement nest egg.

Cheers,

Charlie
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