Estimating the stock/bond risk premium

[Gardnr]

Quote:

Originally Posted by . . . Yrs to Go While it was a great time to be a Treasury bond investor in 1982, it looks to be an absolutely lousy time to buy them now.

Thanks. That's what I was trying to point to the OP. I cannot believe anybody would think that now is the time to pile into LT Treasury bonds. A sure recipe for disaster, and another case of chasing returns.

[Darryl]

Ha, thoughts on 20 yr TIPS with real yield over 3%?

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darryl Ha, thoughts on 20 yr TIPS with real yield over 3%?

You mean does that sound good to me? The answer is yes, really good.

But I admit that I am a blockhead when it comes to getting the details of TIPS down. How do you see this, Darryl?

Ha

[Darryl]

I see it as a great time to be buying. I've been buying 2026 and out individuals in the secondary this month and have my fingers crossed that the rate hold through the January auctions. Where I might buy some 10 yr but the 20 is the one I like.
I'm currently running a 75/25 AA and no intention of bailing on equities but it seems like a retiree with a 4% SWR that owned TIPS paying 3+% real would be sleeping better than most.
Additionally in my case I have a noncola pension that starts paying out in 10 years and is a substantial part of my plan, inflation could do a lot of damage to that so heavy on the TIPS for me may offer some hedge.

[Gone4Good]

TIPS near or above 3% are pretty attractive. Especially relative to plain vanilla Treasuries, which are yielding about the same without the inflation protection. Unless you think we're in for a long bout of declining prices, TIPS seem to be a hands down winner.