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Re: Evaluate my portfolio
Old 01-24-2007, 02:38 PM   #21
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio

Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyShackleford
Would high-yield muni binds be considered "junk" ? I bought some of Vanguard's
VWAHX last year; seemed like a pretty fabulous yield (4+%) for tax-exempt.

High yield munis have been chased up also, but not quite as much. Just don't go overboard.
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio
Old 01-24-2007, 05:00 PM   #22
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio

I got rid of my Vanguard junk bond fund last year also. The spread between junk and treasury especially GNMA just isn't enough to justify the higher risk. Ditto on REITs except for I got out of most of them in 2004 and 2005 and missed a lot of gains. (Except for Realty Income O which I plan on holding forever...)

As for the asset allocation. I think you are missing a core holding, e.g. Total stock market, S&P 500, or total international market. If you can get the total $ in that fund to the 100K level, you can qualify for Admiral fund level and save yourself .1 to 2.% a year in expense which at your age will really add up.

Yes, your bond allocation is to high, but you already knew that.
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio
Old 01-25-2007, 06:57 AM   #23
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio

none related.............

Brewer... WOW

you are the ma..1.5+- billion posts!!!!!!
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio
Old 01-30-2007, 03:57 PM   #24
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio

So the concensus seems to be...add some mid-cap US exposure. The problem is, what % should be mid-cap relative to the 4% in small-cap? According to the morningstar x-ray, the VG small-cap index fund (NAESX) holds 40% of mid-cap stocks already. The small-cap fund is held in my Roth, so I have limited flexibility to rebalance, and the mid-cap would have to be held in a taxable account.

I am thinking that if the small-cap index is 4% of my portfolio, I should add another 2% of the mid-cap, so that in total it will be roughly 50/50 split between the two (since the small cap holds some mid-cap). Is this reasonable?

However, I hate to add a specific mid-cap index fund because I'll get hit with the <$10k balance fees from Vanguard, but that seems like the only way to do it...any other ideas? I could go to the VG extended market index in a taxable account (putting me over the $10k balance) but then I'd have to find something to replace the small-cap that's currently held in my Roth. And it doesn't look like it should be replaced with REITs, that's for sure.
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio
Old 01-30-2007, 06:53 PM   #25
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio

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Originally Posted by soupcxan
I got rid of VWEHX last year, ultimately I decided that it didn't fit in my allocation, too highly correlated with stocks and not enough expected return to justify it.

As for REITS, I've been thinking/hearing that they were overpriced since 2005, yet they continue the climb. It is mind boggling. I finally decided that a small allocation wouldn't hurt, and if prices drop, I'll just continue to rebalance to get back to my target %.
I still have about 5% in REITs and amazed that it is still climbing endlessly. REIT is up almost 8% - wow.
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio
Old 01-30-2007, 07:22 PM   #26
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio

For a conservative investor concerned about volatility, it's surprising to see about an 11%+11%+18%=40% exposure to the U.S. dollar getting stronger.

(It might not be appropriate to include the full % from commodities; I haven't worked that out yet.)

Not sure what ideal % is for conservative, volatility fearing investor, perhaps something between 15% and 25%? Probably no biggie to go a little over that, but I don't understand why foreign bonds need to be in the portfolio.

If you plan to live outside the U.S. at some point, or have significant expenses that would go up when the dollar falls, then you might ignore the above.


Too value tilted? I don't know; my guess is that total market is safer than most any combination or tilt today, but that's just my current opinion...


On EM--my guess is that it would add a diversification benefit. Doesn't need to be a huge % of portfolio. You could just add the actual market weight.


Congrats on those 3% ibonds!
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio
Old 01-31-2007, 09:27 AM   #27
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio

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Originally Posted by lazyday
For a conservative investor concerned about volatility, it's surprising to see about an 11%+11%+18%=40% exposure to the U.S. dollar getting stronger.
My understanding is that a foreign stock fund isn't a currency play, because the fund hedges away most of the FX risk. And the commodities fund does have some exposure to USD FX (but not 100%, unsure of the magnitude) but that makes sense - if commodities that the US imports get more expensive, then my personal inflation rate will increase, so DJP will help offset that. I'm comfortable with <22% in non-USD exposure, it's not just about volatility - it's about correlation and the effect on the overall portfolio.

Does anyone know if DJP will start paying dividends/distributions at some point in the future? Or is it all held inside the fund's NAV until you realize capital gains?

I think some EM would be good, so we'll see how Vanguard's new Total Int'l ex-US based on the FTSE index looks when it comes out in the next few months.
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio
Old 01-31-2007, 09:45 AM   #28
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio

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Originally Posted by soupcxan
Does anyone know if DJP will start paying dividends/distributions at some point in the future? Or is it all held inside the fund's NAV until you realize capital gains?
DJP isn't a fund. It is technically a zero coupon bond issued by Barclays. So no distributions until maturity.
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio
Old 01-31-2007, 09:50 AM   #29
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Re: Evaluate my portfolio

Quote:
Originally Posted by soupcxan
My understanding is that a foreign stock fund isn't a currency play, because the fund hedges away most of the FX risk.
Some funds do, but not Vanguard index funds. You can check the prospectus; if they hedged, it would say so.
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