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Old 01-12-2017, 08:33 AM   #81
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I have no interest in "expected returns", only real ones.

I don't use a crystal ball and I don't look at other peoples either. I look at my monthly statements and go from there.

Don't read blogs, don't read financial forums, don't buy newsletters either.
Agree. Other than this forum of course.
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Old 01-12-2017, 10:45 AM   #82
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We're all walking across a foggy bridge with an unknowable maximum load, which in itself is dependent on the climate and weather.

Looking through the fog assessing potential scenarios and their rough likelihoods helps me figure out whether I should put on an extra jacket or whether it is safe to jump and down (for fun).

Or some sort of different analogy ..
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Old 01-12-2017, 11:19 AM   #83
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Ex-US would have about the same volatility as US stocks with 6% higher returns. Quite a statement.
Yes I adjusted my results to eliminate USD exchange gains. This keeps the underlying returns in perspective.

I also count on 7% returns and 4% withdrawals. Last year was 11.2 and 1.8 actual so lots of room for a future downturn.
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Old 01-12-2017, 07:26 PM   #84
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We're all walking across a foggy bridge with an unknowable maximum load, which in itself is dependent on the climate and weather.

Looking through the fog assessing potential scenarios and their rough likelihoods helps me figure out whether I should put on an extra jacket or whether it is safe to jump and down (for fun).

Or some sort of different analogy ..
What are you doing out in the fog? Seriously, is a percent or two change in somebody's long term forecast really going to change your behaviour?
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Old 01-13-2017, 03:53 AM   #85
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We all are in the fog - prediction is impossible. Bad analogy, apologies.

If nearly everyone lowers their forecast 2 percentage points below mine it would prompt me to strongly recheck my own assumptions.

Behavior change would follow if I agree. I don't mind going against the grain but do use it as an indicator.
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Old 01-13-2017, 04:23 AM   #86
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We all are in the fog - prediction is impossible. Bad analogy, apologies.

If nearly everyone lowers their forecast 2 percentage points below mine it would prompt me to strongly recheck my own assumptions.

Behavior change would follow if I agree. I don't mind going against the grain but do use it as an indicator.
Even if you were in possession of actual results that were quite different? I wouldn't change my plans which are firmly based on my actual results.
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Old 01-13-2017, 04:26 AM   #87
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Yes.

Past results are an indicator obviously, but I wouldn't expect bonds (as an example) to perform the same as it did the past 30 years.
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Old 01-13-2017, 04:39 AM   #88
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Yes.

Past results are an indicator obviously, but I wouldn't expect bonds (as an example) to perform the same as it did the past 30 years.
Good point, I don't have any bonds. My pension is my FI proxy.
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