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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 03:49 AM   #21
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Poor Rich! (oxymoron?) His enthusiasm seems misunderstood. All the talk of 'investment' leaves out the issue of his previously paying interest to service this investment. Now he is free and clear. We don't know what his mortgage rate was.. maybe he had an ARM (brrrrr!).. anyway, he is well clear of it. I don't think many of you would advocate margin trading, so why the disdain over paying off the mortgage?

While with a low mortgage interest and higher expected returns, you could be making something off the spread, for a conservative investor this is not going to be a huge difference, while the relief of not worrying about writing an extra check every month and worrying about whether your withdrawals will need to stay high in a year when the market is low.. well, I think that may be worth the difference. As free4now said, Simplicity!

Rich (an MD, IIRC) may also be in an AMT tax territory that doesn't give him the full benefit of the interest deduction, so in his case it may be a no-brainer. (disclosure: I know almost nothing about the AMT, so feel free to correct me on this).

Anyway, it seems to me like a bird in the hand being worth two in the bush. His $170k has brought him a guaranteed positive return w/r/t his previous position, so I say "WELL DONE!"

[Wab is right to consider 'imputed' rent; as I mentioned elsewhere, in Italy on your personal income tax there is an item to calculate this virtual income, on which you are required to pay tax (!). Sick, indeed!]
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 07:24 AM   #22
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Quote:
Originally Posted by Azanon
Anyone that eliminates their house equity from any net worth analysis is an idiot. Or an idiot with respect to finance 101.
Az,

Easy big guy. In your view is everyone who values FIRECALC an "idiot," as you so graciously put it? No home equity there that I recall...

We are talking about retirement planning, not net worth analysis (I used and clarfied that way back at the beginning). No argument with the former.





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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 07:41 AM   #23
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Quote:
Originally Posted by ladelfina
Poor Rich! (oxymoron?) His enthusiasm seems misunderstood.
Oooh.. an online hug. That felt good, thanks Ladelfina* .

Yes, truth be told the decision was actually a fairly complicated one and it was an ARM which is now rising fast on its way past 7%.

Of course the point of my post was that for all the angst of saving 25 bucks pre-FIRE for every dollar in anticipated expenses, it is kinda nice to know that you can reverse that reality a bit by reducing your saving goals by 25 bucks for every dollar by which you reduce your long-term expenses POST-FIRE.

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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 07:49 AM   #24
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
Of course the point of my post was that for all the angst of saving 25 bucks pre-FIRE for every dollar in anticipated expenses, it is kinda nice to know that you can reverse that reality a bit by reducing your saving goals by 25 bucks for every dollar by which you reduce your long-term expenses POST-FIRE.
Rich - reducing expenses is definitely a major part of the FIRE equation. This is also why moving to an area with a lower cost of living can make such a huge difference.

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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 07:57 AM   #25
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Another hug for Rich here from a fellow lover of the mortgage-free life. In fact, the absence of mortgage helps this nervous nellie cope with stock market gyrations. I enjoy FIRE more when I avoid stress.

Although we already downsized our real estate, it was downsized in value, not size (SanFrancisco condo to South Carolina house). And we live once again in a much appreciated asset, and this time wihout a mortgage. But I don't count the value as a FIRE asset. I figure on eventually trading this place for a small condo and/or spiffy fifth wheeler--and much later, assisted living (especially if DH goes to the great beyond first), and a good place/trailer costs to buy and costs more by the month than my current housing expenses, so any cash I take out will be needed to help pay that increased housing expense. If I'm lucky, it'll be a wash. Even if we stay in the house and make use of a reverse mortgage some day, we'll likely need that money in our dotage to pay for additional services (like weekly house cleaning instead of the current less than monthly) and other expenses (like more heat and A/C when we're weak & cranky). If I really mismanage our investments, we could tap the value, but I just keep that data point as a footnote on one of my lists--along with the other emergency backup ideas.
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 08:09 AM   #26
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
Oooh.. an online hug. That felt good, thanks Ladelfina* .
No hug from me.........we've never been properly introduced!

But, no problem with your view on your personal residence as being a reduction in expenses as opposed to an asset.* I do it the same way.

My proposed retirement budget includes the expenses of maintaining my home, RE taxes, utilities, etc., but no rent.* I offset that by not including the equity in my home on the asset side.

Of course, this would never pass gaap muster, but it works for me.* I'm an old guy and get confused by posting the house as an asset and then offsetting it with phantom rent.* Too hypothetical for my shallow mind.

IMO, as long as you don't do it both ways, it'll work out ok.

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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 08:29 AM   #27
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Quote:
Originally Posted by astromeria
(SanFrancisco condo to South Carolina house). And we live once again in a much appreciated asset, and this time wihout a mortgage. But I don't count the value as a FIRE asset. I figure on eventually trading this place for a small condo and/or spiffy fifth wheeler--and much later, assisted living (especially if DH goes to the great beyond first
Those are our priorities to a T.

My paid-up (and admittedly more-than-we-need) house is probably the closest we will come to long-term care insurance. Tap those precious assets only when an alternative living situation is needed by one or both of us. That way, if a move to a nursing home is necessary, the house becomes automatically too big for one, and a whole bunch of change is freed up to help defray the costs either by selling and downsizing, or reverse mortgage.
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 08:38 AM   #28
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Way to go Rich! *

At least some of the posters here see your message for what it was meant to convey....not paying any recurring expenese will save some significant $$$ needed to fund an income stream to pay the expense over time. *It may not be 25X annual expense unless it is a very long term mortgage and you need to pay it until it the end of the loan term (30 years). *A 15 year note might only require 12X annual expense for P+I (you still have taxes and insurance). *

I have a couple of mortgages that are being funded out of current wages. *I am doing accelerated payments on one of them to get it paid off in a couple of years to reduce my expenses in retirement. *I plan on carrying the other mortgage for a while since we plan to downsize the house in 8-10 years. *I see no need to pay off the house mortgage since we can easily make the payments out of our planned RE income stream. *After we sell it and move our expenses will go down and that is in my budget plan. *

Planning income streams in RE can be a complex task for some folks. *In our case, we have a number of reductions in expenses over the first 10 years of ER. *Some people might be tempted to keep working to fund these 10 higher income years but we won't. *We will have a higher SWR during those years but the net effect on income in later retirement years is projected to be insignificant even with conservative investments. *

Lowering expenses is a great way to get to ER sooner or to have a larger income while in ER because it reduces the amount of money required to fund the required income stream. *For many of us it comes down to quality of ER life vs quantity of assets to generate the income desired to fund the expected quality of life. *This is a moving scale and being flexible will pay off handsomely by allowing more spending in an "up" market or reeling in our expenses in a "down" market. *Having a *nice buffer between what you really need vs what you want will make for a much more comfortable retirement life. *Our plan has about a 20-30% buffer in expenses; more after the first 10 years (40-50%) all on a 100% SWR not using all our investment assets. *

Oh..we don't use the house or the other home's equity in our asset calculation of SWR. *We do include in our NW but that is just a "feel good" number and not a real one for calculation of our expected SWR since we don't intend on selling either property to pay for groceries. *
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 08:46 AM   #29
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
I guess the problem everybody (except CFB) is having with this revelation i
CFB didnt say a dang thing about the "revelation". Unless you've developed "Brewers disease", re-read my post for the ACTUAL content please? If you've in fact developed Brewers disease, then continue to rant for 3 more pages about it and then declare that your misreading of the post was just semantics

Back in the land of reality...I quoted a very specific component of Rich's thread regarding expense reduction and commented further on the benefits of said expense reduction.
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 08:53 AM   #30
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Hey Rich, I am with you. Hug, hug. I just paid off a $270K mortgage. For me it had nothing to do with detailed calculations of net worth, investment value, et al. It had to do with a modicum of piece of mind. I too saw that thirty year payment as an albatross that I would be well rid of.

With the mortgage paid, I now have all of my wife's and my basic expenses covered by a relatively sure thing (Fed pension). Our portfolio is there for travel, etc and we are comfortable leaving it a bit more agressively invested than we might otherwise in hopes of a large transfer of wealth to the kids (who don't have a safety net because of those darn CEOs and short sighted legislators we are ranting about in the PBS Nightline thread)
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 09:09 AM   #31
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Bottom line, if you have a great loan rate and if it's further improved by deductability of mortgage interest, it may make sense to keep a home loan. For this case, with a high and growing ARM at 7% and with enough emergency liquidity, Rich in Tampa made the right call in my opinion.

Real estate is so regionally specific and with returns which are somewhat but not fully correlated with stocks and bonds. It doesn't make sense to ignore it in your SWR calculations, but it doesn't make sense to give it the same treatment as a liquid portfolio either.

In formulating an annual budget I count the full value (after cap gains taxes and expenses) of the real estate (primary residence and a vacation home) and just presume a lower withdrawal rate (2%) on that portion to be conservative.

Quicken software has a good retirement simulator where you can model these sorts of events like an asset sale -- kind of figure out when we would need to sell the home or homes in order to not run out of cash under a fixed assumption of returns. Of course, it's not the full monte carlo approach, but it's a decent guestimate.
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 09:22 AM   #32
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

And make sure you throw in the tidbit that I gleaned from rich's post.

Look at the expense number. You can squeeze some float out of a loan, but consider the safety factor.

Some people buy lots of bonds. Some people buy annuities. Both to provide income and protection from volatility, along with increased diversity. Some people invest in riskier/higher volatility investments to (hopefully) maintain a high rate of return to really squeeze out that float.

If you dont have a lot of big monthly bills to pay, volatility and rates of return become a lot less critical. I dont own many bonds and no annuities. I dont need "ballast" and low volatility. On the other hand, high volatility that brings an associated high return doesnt scare me either.

If my wife lost her 2 day a week job (really unlikely), couldnt find another one (impossibly unlikely), and the equity markets dropped 80%...it wouldnt make any difference at all to me.

Its REALLY a LOT more than just figuring the mortgage payment, the tax deduction and how much you think you can make with that if you invested it...
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 09:30 AM   #33
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Another comment on . . . to net worth or not to net worth your home equity.

A poster noted he does not include his clothing or art collection in his net worth because he's not going to sell either. Potentially valid point.

But . . . if the art collection is insured and burns in a fire, along with the insured house it's in, then what? Your intent is to some extent irrelevant in the world of net worth. You either are worth it or not.

I hope the concept of paying off the mortgage to lower monthly expenses and celebrate on the lowered required asset base for SWR . . . also includes a careful assessment of annual depreciation in the value of appliances that are ageing and must be replaced, annualized overall repair costs to the house (including the big ticket item roof every 20 yrs or so), property tax and insurance, sewer, trash pickup . . . just every single item that one would not explicitly pay when renting. But that's a significant digression.

If your house is burned tomorrow and your insurance company puts the check in your hand, I'm pretty sure that for that moment at least, your home equity is part of net worth.
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 09:33 AM   #34
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Quote:
Originally Posted by rodmail
If your house is burned tomorrow and your insurance company puts the check in your hand, I'm pretty sure that for that moment at least, your home equity is part of net worth.
If you keep the cash and don't rebuild the house, don't forget to put rent expense back into the budget!
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 09:37 AM   #35
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

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This is problematic in that the SWR studies do not include real estate, so deriving an SWR number from real estate is not going to be historically accurate. *
This is the heart ache I have with all the retirement calculators. *Hurts because we're ~75% investment property. *Makes the SWR game a little harder.

Hey Dory -

Ever thought of adding real estate as an asset class to FIRE Calc? *Could use some historical appreciation number like 3 or 4%. *Or maybe just tie it to inflation. *

Huh ... I guess it might be the same as assigning the real estate to *the TIPs portion of FIRE Calc ... (never mind).
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 10:04 AM   #36
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
If my wife lost her 2 day a week job (really unlikely), couldnt find another one (impossibly unlikely), and the equity markets dropped 80%...it wouldnt make any difference at all to me.
Wow, CFB. Does that mean that you have assets spinning off more than 5 times what you really need to live on at a SWR? Or do you just mean you have a "plan b" - e.g. go back to work, inheritance, etc.

Just curious. In any event, nice work getting to that place.
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 10:12 AM   #37
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

CFB is better off than me, but even I would be pretty OK in that scenario (DH lost his job, market tanked). I have over 10 years of expenses in fixed income that I could slowly cash out. Presumably my stocks would've recovered in spades by the time I was sweating bullets!
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 10:16 AM   #38
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
And make sure you throw in the tidbit that I gleaned from rich's post.

Its REALLY a LOT more than just figuring the mortgage payment, the tax deduction and how much you think you can make with that if you invested it...
Absolutely. *The quickie analysis is just a rough cut and shouldn't be a final answer, hence the use of conditional language "may make sense" in the post. *To be more specific, it may make sense to keep the loan if the "spread" between the return you get putting the money to work versus the after tax cost of the loan is high enough to compensate you for the risk of taking on debt, loss of sleep factor, etc. *That's a personal decision and there is not really a cookie cutter answer.

The impact of keeping the loan to fund your investments is not unlike what some hedge funds do. *It leverages a smaller asset base to amplify gains in your liquid portfolio -- the problem is the losses can be amplified as well. *
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 10:44 AM   #39
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Quote:
Originally Posted by tryan
Hey Dory -

Ever thought of adding real estate as an asset class to FIRE Calc? *Could use some historical appreciation number like 3 or 4%. *Or maybe just tie it to inflation. *

Huh ... I guess it might be the same as assigning the real estate to *the TIPs portion of FIRE Calc ... (never mind).
Part of the problem with real estate is that it is local.

We are at maybe 25% real estate right now and on the sell down. I have used FIRECalc using the TIPS portion, but take it with a grain of salt as I don't see real estate outpacing inflation for a while. But because of the sell down process, it is close enough for government work.
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t
Old 05-17-2006, 10:47 AM   #40
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Re: Expenses, SWR, and Holy Sh&%#t

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
Wow, CFB. Does that mean that you have assets spinning off more than 5 times what you really need to live on at a SWR? Or do you just mean you have a "plan b" - e.g. go back to work, inheritance, etc.

Just curious. In any event, nice work getting to that place.
Nope, it just means my interest and dividends cover our fairly small expenses, and those expenses can easily be temporarily reduced without too much hardship. Drop all the satellite premium channels, quit eating lobster and filet mignon 2-3 times a week...you know, real hardships.

Stocks drop 80%...the interest and dividends still get paid, excepting defaults. Keep the shares, cut the expenses, maybe cut a few lawns or do a few hours behind the counter at the quick-e mart. Back to business as usual once things pick up.

Or we just live off the wifes small income until things smooth out. More than half of her income goes to her 403b and our Roth's. We just stop that for a year or two and we've got more than enough cash, even if half of our portfolio defaulted.

Still got the house. We can still live in it. It hasnt "lost" any of that basic benefits.

And we're not trying to figure out how to come up with 12-25k+ a year to pay the mortgage in the 7th year of a full bear slide. It just...doesnt...matter...

Rich - since you're in the medical business you'll appreciate the safety of her job...she's a certified respiratory care specialist/therapist, with neonatal certification. We get postcards in the mail every other day offering to pay her full relocation, a five figure bonus and extra vacation if she'd take a job elsewhere. Theres about 50 hospitals within a 60-90 minute commute from here, and lots of individuals who would pay her for a daily visit to their home to check their equipment and give them treatments.

No matter how bad the economy gets, you pretty much cant stop breathing...
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