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Old 10-26-2013, 01:59 PM   #21
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I bailed in 2008-2009 and told myself I would get back in after the next election in 2012 when things calmed down. But after the 2010 and 2012 elections Washington DC look more dysfunctional than ever. It doesn't look like I will be back for quite a while. Hmmmm . . . maybe after the 2020 redistricting.
I am not certain, but I think you are saying that you have no equity investments at present.

What do you invest in instead?

Ha
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Old 10-26-2013, 02:25 PM   #22
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I bailed in 2008-2009 and told myself I would get back in after the next election in 2012 when things calmed down. But after the 2010 and 2012 elections Washington DC look more dysfunctional than ever. It doesn't look like I will be back for quite a while. Hmmmm . . . maybe after the 2020 redistricting.
Sounds like you're into the "buy high sell low" approach to investing... ouch!
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Old 10-26-2013, 03:23 PM   #23
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I am not certain, but I think you are saying that you have no equity investments at present.

What do you invest in instead?

Ha
Frumpstiggle, of course. Don't you have a position?
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Exuberant yet?
Old 10-26-2013, 03:57 PM   #24
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Exuberant yet?

Exuberant yet? Who, me? Exuberance during times when my net worth reaches new all time highs several times each week, and the markets keep surging on to higher and higher peaks for no reason and with no end in sight?

Wheeee!!!! I love it and I am totally, TOTALLY exuberant. Hang on, this roller coaster ride is really getting to be so much fun lately.

While this ever surging market may affect my discretionary spending a little (Wheee!!! bought another video game just last night, let the good times roll), it doesn't affect my asset allocation because it just doesn't. That isn't the way I invest. I rejoice when we experience a booming market, just as much as I am concerned when the markets crash. But either way, I don't act on it.
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Old 10-26-2013, 04:15 PM   #25
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Wheeee!!!!
Now you've done it again. You have all your shorts in place or something?

Ha
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Old 10-26-2013, 04:20 PM   #26
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I hate it when W2R whees in public...
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Old 10-26-2013, 04:36 PM   #27
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Uh-oh...
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Old 10-26-2013, 04:53 PM   #28
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Eh. Frankly we seem to be overdue for a correction. No biggie.
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Old 10-26-2013, 04:59 PM   #29
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Eh. Frankly we seem to be overdue for a correction. No biggie.
Folks have been re-balancing out of equities, right? Right?
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Old 10-26-2013, 05:06 PM   #30
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Folks have been re-balancing out of equities, right? Right?
I'll have to forward your question to the folks who manage my Wellesley and Wellington funds...
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Old 10-26-2013, 05:35 PM   #31
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That's it. I'm selling everything and stuffing it in the mattress.
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Old 10-26-2013, 05:37 PM   #32
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You never know. Gas prices are coming down and I didn't buy into oil this time around....
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Old 10-26-2013, 05:44 PM   #33
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Folks have been re-balancing out of equities, right? Right?
I have been rebalancing and deconcentrating, but I think the vast majority of the retail rubes have yet to jump into the equity pool.
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Old 10-26-2013, 05:45 PM   #34
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You never know. Gas prices are coming down and I didn't buy into oil this time around....
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Old 10-26-2013, 07:33 PM   #35
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I have been rebalancing and deconcentrating, but I think the vast majority of the retail rubes have yet to jump into the equity pool.
But is the pool of money from retail buyers enough to push things higher? I don't have any figures on this sort of thing.

My gut feeling is that we are OK through at least January. Many will look at the missed opportunities in 2013 and push more money over into equities. But again, is that really enough to pump the market up? Maybe so baring major shocks like geopolitical ones or major trading partners getting is trouble.
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Old 10-26-2013, 10:19 PM   #36
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But is the pool of money from retail buyers enough to push things higher? I don't have any figures on this sort of thing.

My gut feeling is that we are OK through at least January. Many will look at the missed opportunities in 2013 and push more money over into equities. But again, is that really enough to pump the market up? Maybe so baring major shocks like geopolitical ones or major trading partners getting is trouble.
I think we rally through the end of the year, in the usual stop and go fashion. After that, who knows? Europe is coming out of recession, China seems to be muddling through. If the politicians can stop squabbling maybe we will even see some real growth. I have been using the rally to diversify and tweak my allocations so that my risk profile is more appropriate to an ESR.

Tomorrow I am going deer hunting. I kind of doubt I will be bagging a deer and don't really care if I don't get one. I will be out in the woods in nice weather with the cell phone shut off and nobody to bother me.
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Old 10-28-2013, 12:08 PM   #37
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If we agree that the market goes up more often than it does going down, then should investors not be happy more often than not?

I think exuberance is OK. It's irrational exuberance that one should fear. Greenspan first coined this phrase in 1996 in a speech.
[...] Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? [...]

See: FRB: Speech, Greenspan -- Central banking in a democratic society -- December 5, 1996
So, are we experiencing another bout of irrational exuberance? Same as some earlier posters, I do not think so. One will note that the above Greenspan's speech was in 1996, and the market did not implode until mid 2000, although the current economic condition is different than the dotcom era.

I think the market rise will continue for a while, though this thinking will not make me go any higher than 70-75% in stock allocation. But as I believe that the world economy is recovering, I will look for some markets outside the US.

And talking about Greenspan, as I got curious about what he was up to, I searched the Web, and found that he had recently expressed concerns that the QE had been going on for so long, and it had raised the risk that it was not going to end well.
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Old 10-28-2013, 03:46 PM   #38
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Reporting back from the wine tasting party I went to Saturday night, not one mention of stocks or investing. Maybe everyone was too interested in wine, food, and football on TV. The office seems quiet too. Will report back in a few weeks.
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Old 10-28-2013, 04:24 PM   #39
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At my office too many of the folks pulled out of the market at the beginning of the gov'ment shut down... Now they're regretting it.
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Old 10-28-2013, 04:55 PM   #40
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I checked the data of mutual fund flows and updated my graph through Aug 2013. You can see people pulling out of bonds and some modest upticks in equity flows, particularly international equity.



I'm guessing this stuff is a lagging indicator although you can see declines in 2007 well before the poor 2008.
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