Falling home prices

[TBPu]

way to go are honobob, back from the ledge. That's the spirit. I know it seems like a 180 degree mood swing but those are normal (cough). Kidding.

Since you mention it's a good day to buy real estate. Maybe you'd be magnanimous and suggest a strategy for a nearly penthouse condo in the Four Seasons on Market St. One floor beneath Gavin. Nice city paid security.

Any strategy?

Twaddle, I owned VGPMX and VWO and at 1mil each until October. That true but even if not it's a damn good lie. Now am I a genius or what.

Early 2004, bought 1mil of VGPMX at various mid teen prices. Sold in Oct 2007 for 2.8mil plus.
Mid 2005 sold most of 1mil in MSFT and bought VWO. Sold in Oct 2007 for 2mil.

I'm either a UMich professor with a genius ability in stocks or I'm a liar. But, I do plan to sail out of SF in May on a very nice little boat.

 

[haha]

But speculating based on past growth or hoping that your neighborhood becomes gentrified or popular doesn't strike me as "advanced" real estate investing.

Intersting though how frequently that has worked, and worked big in our lifetimes. I remember back in the 70s thinking that the popular idea of escalator profits in real estate seemed incredibly naive, but often successful.

Where else in life can so many people with ordinary gifts get a free ride up?

A few people recently have made huge money shorting this bubble, and my hat is off to them. Because years of past experience said "Thou shalt not fade residential real estate."

Regarding gentrification, a lot of places it has not worked. But in Seattle it has been a good middle class investment for a young person to buy a single family dump anywhere within 2-4 miles of downtown, live in squalor, put bars on the windows and avoid walking around at night, and eventually enough of your types will be in the neighborhood that real estate agents are no longer afraid to come around, and in fact have informally changed the name of the neighborhood to something more palatable- like South Capitol Hill.

Ha

 

[honobob]

Honobob is a successful real estate investor.

Which is all I ever claimed to be and I was successful back in the seventies, the eighties, and the nineties, long before your lucky time came about. Todays events really have no impact on my long term plan as it's pretty much same ole, same ole, but with a better PR man.

And as Honobob promised yesterday. Here's what the Big Boys are doing!!!!


150 Spear sold 2001 for $102,400,000 Probably negotiated when dot.com still had fumes.
150 Spear sold 2007 $142,500,000 6% compounded annual appreciation + the income stream.

75 Hawthorne sold 2004 $97,000,000
75 Hawthorne sold 2006 $125,000,000 About 15% per year.

333 Market sold 2005 $155,000,000 Old Chevron headquarters, nice!
333 Market sold 2007 $370,000,000 55% per year appreciation Ok they did put a little money into it. I think about $35,000,000 but still pretty good overall.

So it still makes me wonder why if I'm making money, everybody I know is making money, and the Big Boys are making money in real estate why am I being asked to bail out people I don't know and actually am not sure exist?

Twaddle, are you a bailout schill?

P.S. How about a graph for my book sales. It's not for my ego, the guys in shipping want to plan expected overtime.

 

[honobob]

way to go are honobob, back from the ledge. That's the spirit. I know it seems like a 180 degree mood swing but those are normal (cough). Kidding.

Since you mention it's a good day to buy real estate. Maybe you'd be magnanimous and suggest a strategy for a nearly penthouse condo in the Four Seasons on Market St. One floor beneath Gavin. Nice city paid security.

Any strategy?

Stay the Hell away from the Four Seasons if you value your life. It's all Brittany and Lilo. Hell, even Gavin fessed up to a drinking problem. He does have a city driver though.

Here's where the bigger money is going.

The St. Regis Hotel just closed escrow on its last luxury condominium unit.
As of July 14, the property was officially and completely sold out, all 102 condominiums having closed escrow. The final sales are a key landmark for developers Carpenter & Co., Starwood Hotels & Resorts and the San Francisco Redevelopment Agency.
Though the building had 85 of 102 units under contract eight months ago, those sales were secured with partial deposits and were not final until they closed escrow.
"We're all out there celebrating," said Alan Mark, who led marketing of the condominiums.
Included in the sales were three penthouses sold to developer Victor MacFarlane for $30 million, as first reported by the Business Times in December.
By the end of January, MacFarlane had hired Cuban-born architect Orlando Diaz-Azcuy to lead a renovation estimated to cost $20 million or more.

YOU HAVE BIGGER MONEY, RIGHT?

 

[twaddle]

Twaddle, I owned VGPMX and VWO and at 1mil each until October. That true but even if not it's a damn good lie. Now am I a genius or what.

Early 2004, bought 1mil of VGPMX at various mid teen prices. Sold in Oct 2007 for 2.8mil plus.
Mid 2005 sold most of 1mil in MSFT and bought VWO. Sold in Oct 2007 for 2mil.

I'm either a UMich professor with a genius ability in stocks or I'm a liar. But, I do plan to sail out of SF in May on a very nice little boat.

Very nice. I started a tech company in 1996 and sold it in 1999.

Who needs to be smart when we can be lucky?

Now that real estate is over, where will the next bit of luck come from?

 

[TBPu]

honobob,
errrr, I hope you are kidding about the St. Regis condos. You do know that Gore and Tipper, the Beverly Hillbilly crowd, live there.

No I don't have the BIG money like you claim but I can afford a nice little ocean putter boat.

Twaddle, a very astute observation/question. Not only real estate but some other former glory holes are closed. No pun intended. As a visionary of some renown, I profess to know about as much as Memphis Minnie. Not much it would seem. BUT, I believe the next mega-Bob will be the person who devises a way to re-introduce "barter" into our lives.

So for instance: As a former tenured Professor of Psychology at U of M. I would agree to rid hono of his demons ( and delusions of knowledge in that field) for some advice on buying a sky pad in SF. No taxes. No big legal fees just a deliver your goods and I'll deliver mine.

Barter. The Future.

 

[honobob]

But, I do plan to sail out of SF in May on a very nice little boat.

Mu.uu....uu..sssst exercise compulsion control. Help me out here you guys, I don't have all day.

TPBu, although claimed to be very nice do you really want to bring your lil' dinghy to San Francisco. P.S. The Parade is actually in June.


I feel so bad, but in a good way

He he! He said putter!

We should have a IM feature here.

Big Money takes the hills out of even a hillbilly.

 

[FinallyRetired]

Now that real estate is over, where will the next bit of luck come from?

Great question. Where will the next bubble be, so we can ride it a little before it pops? We've seen gold (70s), internet (90s), real estate (00s), oil (00s), what's next?

 

[REWahoo]

So it still makes me wonder why if I'm making money, everybody I know is making money, and the Big Boys are making money in real estate why am I being asked to bail out people I don't know and actually am not sure exist?

What's next, deny the Holocaust occurred?

While we're on the subject, let's throw in a reference to Nazis and Hitler and see how much further we can take this foaming-at-the mouth thread. Anyone want to wager it ends when someone in the bunker finally shoots him or her self in a vital organ? Bound to happen since both feet are already riddled with bullet holes.

 

[W2R]

Great question. Where will the next bubble be, so we can ride it a little before it pops? We've seen gold (70s), internet (90s), real estate (00s), oil (00s), what's next?

Food? I don't know what type, but corn? pigs? some kind of commodity I am thinking

(busily polishing my crystal ball with a good spit-shine)

 

[REWahoo]

Water. If you don't believe me, ask T. Boone Pickens.

 

[honobob]

What's next, deny the Holocaust occurred?

Another bailout schill? Who woke you up?

REWahoo Thanks for reading and I did get a kick out of your post # 42. Post 130 not so much and the last? I'm thinking the law of diminishing returns. Maybe forget quality and just go for quantity like me and some of the others.

 

[FinallyRetired]

Food? I don't know what type, but corn? pigs? some kind of commodity I am thinking

(busily polishing my crystal ball with a good spit-shine)

Commodities might be a good bet, but I'm thinking that the US consumer is tapped out for a while, and the next bubble might be overseas. My guess would be China. Japan had a bubble in the 80s and China appears to be following in those footsteps. Problem with that one, though, is the Chinese govt can intervene at any time and create big losses. Best way to play this one, if it does go bubble would be with a few LEAP calls on Chinese ADRs, like EWH, if they are available.

 

[P.S.]

 

[twaddle]

I've seen a couple of articles from Europeans who seem to be under the impression that Americans depend on asset bubbles. Sometimes I wonder if they're right. What would happen if somebody shut down the bubble machine? Could you imagine what life would be like? Working for a living? Assets with returns based on fundamentals?

Ugh, what a nightmare that would be.

 

[TBPu]

Wow, Holocaust, that's amazing inference. Yes, I am a Bensonhurst born Jewish person. That is pretty canny like. Any clues at to how you guessed that.

That aside, it is interesting that one person posting a "list" denigrated to this.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Seems someone is unfamiliar with Godwins Law.

 

[REWahoo]

Any clues at to how you guessed that.

Coincidence. Unlike others on this thread, I claim no powers of divination. I was simply responding to the following statement and comparing it to another well publicized denial of reality.

... why am I being asked to bail out people I don't know and actually am not sure exist?

 

[TBPu]

ReWahoo, in no way am I claiming you were being anti-Semitic but why was the slaughter (and in some,and maybe your won view a myth) of Jews worth mentioning? It really seems out of place on this thread.

How did you decide that and now that I see you are a Moderator, did you target me because I'm Jewish. Not accusing, just seems odd. I will probably not be allowed to post here after this cause you seem in charge, but as a last post, why attack me?

 

[donheff]

Wow, TBPu, are you succumbing to the psychobabble here? If you read ReWahoo's reference in any reasonable manner you would see that he raised the Holocaust as a prominent example of what some nuts will deny. That is 180 from an anti-semitic reference.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

A truly ridiculous turn of events.

Wheres my popcorn?

 

[W2R]

I agree with Don Heff, TBPu. There is no way for REWahoo to have known you were Jewish, and even if he had somehow known that, he would never have said anything inappropriate. His reason for bringing up the Holocaust were pretty clear: he used it as an example of something that really happened, and cannot be denied by a logical person.

By the way, in the past CFB and I have been known to say "Hitler" in a post because of the superstition that any mention of Hitler will end an overly long thread. That is not a reference to your heritage, either.

 

[honobob]

TPBu
Oh, so it's all fun and games until you're the specific target?


Aw dood. It is all fun and games, but I'm still suspicious that in all these pages we got only one resale below previous sale (thanks Martha, I know you probably went door to door to get that I will learn the importance of making friends in the future) that was current and one from Texas in the 80's (TP we'll always assume that one in future discussions).

Waiting on that sales graph Twaddle. Oh, also on that CA graph subbing for Fla. Don't you think the property tax situation in CA and the insurance thing there makes the comparability more so less?


POPPED corn!

 

[twaddle]

Housing threads. Mortgage threads. Milk threads. I say we should ban them all. Too hot for ERs to handle.

 

[TBPu]

I offer this apology to ReWahoo. I evidently took that comment wrongly. Hope you accept my addmission of error.