Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 11:19 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 147
Fear During a Recession

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north499.html

Don't necessarily agree with everything in this colum, but I liked it nevertheless.
__________________

__________________
camberiu is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 11:27 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: Fear During a Recession

"Visit http://www.garynorth.com. He is also the author of a free 19-volume series, An Economic Commentary on the Bible. "

Tells me all I really need to know about this character.
__________________

__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 11:31 AM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 147
Re: Fear During a Recession

Anything in particular in the colum that you did not like and would like to comment on, or are you just going to stick with Ad Hominen attacks?
__________________
camberiu is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 11:37 AM   #4
Full time employment: Posting here.
Alex's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 696
Re: Fear During a Recession

Gary North is a pessimist with a horrible track record. He has been calling for the economic collapse of the USA for 40 years. He's a real doom and gloomer. He reminds me of Howard Ruff, remember that idiot? :P

As for the actual article - it is just more of the same old crap that these doom and gloomers always predict. "the end of the usa is near, we have mortgaged our future, the currrency is going to collapse, we are dependent on china, buy gold and silver coins, buy a gun and bulllets, ad nauseum." He says the same crap in every article. This one is no different. Go back through Lew Rockwell and search his articles for the last 5 years - they are all the same.
__________________
Oh, you hate your job? Why didn't you say so? There's a support group for that. It's called EVERYBODY, and they meet at the bar.--Drew Carey
Alex is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 11:46 AM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 147
Re: Fear During a Recession

Well, so was the guy on the Thailand tsunami and the scientists that predicted global warming.

Not saying that the US economy is about to colapse (and neither is Gary North in the colum. He is talking about RECESSION), but the fact that the prediction has not happened yet does not make the argument wrong. Of course, Gary North could be completely off, but the counter argument needs to be better than "he has been saying this for X number of years and it has not happened yet".
Someone needs to say that the trade and goverment deficit will not cause great harm to the economy because of X, Y and Z. And that I have not seen yet.


__________________
camberiu is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 11:51 AM   #6
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,617
Re: Fear During a Recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by camberiu
Someone needs to say that the trade and goverment deficit will not cause great harm to the economy because of X, Y and Z. And that I have not seen yet.
I'll play this game.

Someone needs to show that the trade deficit and budget deficits will cause great harm to the economy. We haven't seen that yet, either, and it's possible thet the trade deficit data doesn't properly capture America's productivity & export gains. I share your concern about budget deficits, but deficit spending is one way for the government to cause some good by supporting the economy through the 2000-2002 period.

Let's stick to our guns on this argument, because if we keep it going for enough decades then eventually we'll both be right!
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 11:53 AM   #7
Full time employment: Posting here.
Alex's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 696
Re: Fear During a Recession

If this guy was some noted economist with credentials that'd be one thing. But he's not. What he is, is a nutjob with a computer. I don't have time to disprove every crackpot out there. You can though!

Or better yet, follow his advice and build an underground fall out shelter, move all your assets to gold and silver coins, buy a gun with plenty of bullets, and store a years supply of food and water. Good luck!
__________________
Oh, you hate your job? Why didn't you say so? There's a support group for that. It's called EVERYBODY, and they meet at the bar.--Drew Carey
Alex is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 11:54 AM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: Fear During a Recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by camberiu
Anything in particular in the colum that you did not like and would like to comment on, or are you just going to stick with Ad Hominen attacks?
Heh, that's not an ad hominem attack. An ad hominem attack is what I use on Az.

Your buddy rants and raves about how everyne is clueless about hard times. Well, so what? Most of us will/have taken precautions and we cannot do anything about those who won't/can't. In the meantime, signs of another Depression or a nasty stagflation do not appear to be here.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 11:58 AM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 147
Re: Fear During a Recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
I'll play this game.

Someone needs to show that the trade deficit and budget deficits will cause great harm to the economy. We haven't seen that yet, either
You haven't see it yet. I have. I come from a country that enjoyed growth while experincing trade and budget deficits until the whole castle of cards collapsed (that was 25 years ago) and the place has never recovered. So I do not need proof that budget and trade deficits cause huge economic harm to a country, because I've seen it and I lived through it. What I need to see is why the US is different and that will not happen here. I live here now, so I would love be believe that this will never happen here. However, I do see a lot of spending (both public and private) as if there was no tomorrow and I am concerned that sooner or later, the bills will become due.
__________________
camberiu is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 12:00 PM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 147
Re: Fear During a Recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex
Or better yet, follow his advice and build an underground fall out shelter, move all your assets to gold and silver coins, buy a gun with plenty of bullets, and store a years supply of food and water. Good luck!
No problem. Far from me to defent gary North. but would you please be kind enough to point to me where in the colum he suggested building an underground shelter, buying a gun, bullets and supplies of food and water? I must have missed it while reading about the importance of liquidity during a recession.
__________________
camberiu is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 12:07 PM   #11
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,617
Re: Fear During a Recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by camberiu
You haven't see it yet. I have. I come from a country that enjoyed growth while experincing trade and budget deficits until the whole castle of cards collapsed (that was 25 years ago) and the place has never recovered.
Well, you seem to have your mind pretty well made up, so I'm not going to dicker over an apples/oranges comparison between the U.S. and whatever of the other 180-some countries you're making your judgment from. No doubt they all count their marbles the same way anyhow, and surely there's no possibility of garbage in/garbage out. But I think it's more complicated than that.

For the rest of the board, it's interesting to read Andy Kessler's "Running Money" or "How We Got Here" and taking a look at his "we work, they sweat" approach to evaluating the trade "deficit".
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 12:11 PM   #12
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 147
Re: Fear During a Recession

You are wrong, my mind is not made up. But I am yet to see a good argument of why this can't happen here. Maybe it can't, but I am yet to hear it. Now, the colum that you posted addressed the trade deficit and that is fine. However, the bigger problem is the government spending. Now, how will that NOT hurt the economy?
__________________
camberiu is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 12:15 PM   #13
Full time employment: Posting here.
Alex's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 696
Re: Fear During a Recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by camberiu
No problem. Far from me to defent gary North. but would you please be kind enough to point to me where in the colum he suggested building an underground shelter, buying a gun, bullets and supplies of food and water? I must have missed it while reading about the importance of liquidity during a recession.
If you've read one article from North then I can understand how normal he might seem. Personally, I've read hundreds of his articles.
They are all the same. He predicts gloom and doom. It never happens. He is a wackjob. But don't take my word for it! Go to Lew Rockwell - at the bottom of the page enter Gary North and search the archives. You'll get links for 738 of North's articles. Have fun!
__________________
Oh, you hate your job? Why didn't you say so? There's a support group for that. It's called EVERYBODY, and they meet at the bar.--Drew Carey
Alex is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 12:17 PM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: Fear During a Recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by camberiu
You are wrong, my mind is not made up. But I am yet to see a good argument of why this can't happen here. Maybe it can't, but I am yet to hear it. Now, the colum that you posted addressed the trade deficit and that is fine. However, the bigger problem is the government spending. Now, how will that NOT hurt the economy?
*Sigh* I hate arguing with the tifoil hat brigade.

It is extremely hard to prove anything in economics, let alone prove that somethig cannot happen. So I don't think you will get definitive proof of anything. Sorry.

I will note, however, that outsized gummint spending has been an issue for every Rethuglican administration since Reagan, and I have yet to see any serious economic harm done. I don't think it is a good idea, but its hardly been a disaster.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 12:27 PM   #15
Full time employment: Posting here.
Alex's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 696
Re: Fear During a Recession

Here are Gary North's thoughts on "retirement":
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north212.html
Quote:
Your first retirement strategy is to decide not to retire and plan accordingly
Quote:
Will you really need the money when you retire? In short, do you really intend to retire? Not if you’re smart. Your number-one priority should be to create a home business into which you will "retire." You will simply shift the percentage of your time which is devoted to jobs A and B, with 100% of your work days going to job B. What I recommend is retirement avoidance.
Quote:
If you are a "knowledge professional" (as most newsletter subscribers are), there is no reason short of laziness, enormous wealth, or Alzheimer’s disease which will prohibit you from staying in the work force at least a decade after retirement age.
sounds great, let's everyone work until we drop dead!!! yeehaw!!!
__________________
Oh, you hate your job? Why didn't you say so? There's a support group for that. It's called EVERYBODY, and they meet at the bar.--Drew Carey
Alex is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 12:28 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: Fear During a Recession

Sounds like h05uc...
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 12:29 PM   #17
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 147
Re: Fear During a Recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345

I will note, however, that outsized gummint spending has been an issue for every Rethuglican administration since Reagan, and I have yet to see any serious economic harm done. I don't think it is a good idea, but its hardly been a disaster.
I am sorry that you feel the need to qualify me as the 'thinfoil brigade"....
However, I do not find the argument of "we have been doing it for this long and nothing bad has happened yet" very convincing. People used the SAME argumment in the early 70s to dismiss the then brand new "greenhouse gas model" presented by scientists.
Now, I am not asking for much *I think*, just a brief explanation on why things that happened elsewhere with some really bad results cannot happen here. I also find it funny that people assume that anything bad automatically means underground shelters, guns and roaming bands of Mad Max like barbarians. I live through some bad economic times without seeing a complete breakdown of society. Do I belive that a downturn of the economy would cause us to live like the people on the "Jericho" TV show? No. But I see NO EVIDENCE that the US economy and society are so dramatically and fundamentaly different from the rest of the world that severe economic downturns (again, without Mad Max) could not happen here.
__________________
camberiu is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 12:34 PM   #18
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 147
Re: Fear During a Recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex
Here are Gary North's thoughts on "retirement":
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north212.html sounds great, let's everyone work until we drop dead!!! yeehaw!!!
That is fine. Maybe Gary North wear women underpants while he writes these things. Maybe he sodomizes piglets on his free time. Maybe he is a complete wako. I do not know the guy, so I could not care less. I really don't want this to be a Gary North discussion. Instead, I would like to focus on that particular piece of text. Maybe everything else he ever wrote is psychotic and nonsense, I do not care. What I care is that the text, even though I do not agree with all of it, appeared to have some good points and was quite lucid. I think there might be signs on a recession in the horizon (the article never mentions DEPRESSION or the colapse of society) and that having a position of liquidity is important. That is the primary focus of the article. Now, does anyone in here have a problem with that argument (indepedently of who Gary North is and what he wrote in the past)? If so, would youc are to explain why (without any Gary North bashing)?
__________________
camberiu is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 12:40 PM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: Fear During a Recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by camberiu
But I see NO EVIDENCE that the US economy and society are so dramatically and fundamentaly different from the rest of the world that severe economic downturns (again, without Mad Max) could not happen here.
Could there be an unpleasant downturn? Sure. Happened within (relatively) recent memory. Were the effects lasting? Doesn't look like it. How likely is it that there will be a recession soon in the US? Actually, I'd say chances are at least even odds that we get one in the next two years. But for those of us with a diversified portfolio, it really isn't that big a deal.

So other than sodomizing piglets and doing thorazine shots, what do you and Gary North do with your free time?
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Fear During a Recession
Old 01-03-2007, 12:42 PM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,005
Re: Fear During a Recession

I skimmed the article. Here's a serious response. Recessions happen. Today could be the first day of our next recession in the US (I'll let you know later if it is). Who knows. Set up a properly diversified asset allocation with risk characteristics that allow you to sleep at night. Keep a liquid emergency fund of 6 months living expenses. Done.

If you want to prepare for Mad Max situations, go buy a gun, a couple boxes of bullets/shells, a 500 gallon water tank, a few months of rations/nonperishable food, and get ready to hunker down. Maybe trade in a few thousand "fiat currency" dollars for some gold/silver bullion/coins then call it a day. Get back to living life. Hope for the best and plan for the worst.

Will a recession happen? Maybe. My guess is there is an exceedingly high probability that sometime in my lifetime I'll see a recession in the US and/or globally. Will it be really bad? For some yes, for many no.
__________________

__________________
justin is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Fear and Greed PsyopRanger FIRE and Money 25 07-16-2006 01:15 PM
Possible Recession? runnerr FIRE and Money 4 06-11-2006 03:04 PM
recession or inflation,gearing portfolio mathjak107 FIRE and Money 26 06-04-2006 09:17 AM
Fear or Love; What motovated you to RE? dex Life after FIRE 63 03-03-2006 03:27 PM
Nothing to fear but fear itself............. Cut-Throat FIRE and Money 44 08-17-2004 02:17 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:28 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.