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Old 12-21-2015, 09:32 AM   #161
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yep , i always pictured myself as being the poster child fo the year the 4% swr failed ha ha ha . from the moment i retired in august we have been in a slide .
I've always figured I'd be the poster child independent of the WR.
Much of this thread has turned academic to me as the only pension like thing is SS. But I wonder if you look at a non-cola pension using today's dollars, does the payout shrink over time (as it should).
Both of our pensions vanished in the tech bust.
I usually run these planners with 1/4 of investable assets omitted, just too lazy to port the data from other brokerages. note FV doesn't work with multiple authentication security measures.
One question about the new RIP, does it use the same inflation rate for spending and COLA? If yes, do you think that is realistic based on retiree spending?
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Old 12-21-2015, 02:44 PM   #162
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while study's show we tend to slow spending as we age i am not so sure anymore . it looks like it just shifts from ourselves to our grand kids or kids .

these are all ball parks at best so i don't use them for much except getting to the gate of retirement .
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Old 12-21-2015, 03:03 PM   #163
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while study's show we tend to slow spending as we age i am not so sure anymore . it looks like it just shifts from ourselves to our grand kids or kids .

these are all ball parks at best so i don't use them for much except getting to the gate of retirement .
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Old 01-20-2016, 06:53 AM   #164
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Seeing how the equity market for this year has started, I am grateful for FIDO RIP putting out an ugly scenario for me. It expects the average return for my portfolio for the first 5 years to be something like 0.30% and a 10% drop for 2016. And that is including my bonds and my cash, not just equities.

I know it's just a tool, but it was a good eye opener for me to expect a bad 5-year start as one of many possible scenarios.
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Old 01-20-2016, 07:00 AM   #165
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amen to that . i just retired .
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Old 01-20-2016, 10:05 AM   #166
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This low growth element to the near term values is one of the nuanaces of RIP, I am not really solid on understanding. Since they are using Monte Carlo simulations, isn't it really more of a "fitting" of a market cycle scenario to a period vs a "forecast" per se?
Any clarity by the members is appreciated.
I have also observed what appears to be a noticeably more conservative modeling from Fido in the new RIP vs the old one. The tax treatment methodology particularly makes a hit on ending values, IMHO.
Nwsteve
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Old 01-20-2016, 10:34 AM   #167
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This low growth element to the near term values is one of the nuanaces of RIP, I am not really solid on understanding. Since they are using Monte Carlo simulations, isn't it really more of a "fitting" of a market cycle scenario to a period vs a "forecast" per se?
Any clarity by the members is appreciated.
I have also observed what appears to be a noticeably more conservative modeling from Fido in the new RIP vs the old one. The tax treatment methodology particularly makes a hit on ending values, IMHO.
Nwsteve
I do wish they'd do a better job of explaining their methodology. Attempting to guess and then apply this "educational tool" to one's individual situation isn't helpful to users at all, IMO. OTOH, I've found its conservative modeling mode to be the most negative of all tools so I do start from there.
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Old 01-20-2016, 02:00 PM   #168
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[QUOTE=DEC-1982;1685653]Seeing how the equity market for this year has started, I am grateful for FIDO RIP putting out an ugly scenario for me. It expects the average return for my portfolio for the first 5 years to be something like 0.30% and a 10% drop for 2016. And that is including my bonds and my cash, not just equities.
QUOTE]

Keep in mind, also, that the RIP tool takes out of your portfolio your budgeted annual spending at the beginning of the year. So, in effect, you will be down your withdrawal percentage net of any gains in the portfolio. For example, if you took the infamous 4% withdrawal and the market only provided dividends and growth of 2%, you are starting 2017 at 2% lower.
At least, that is how I understand it works. Notice when you look at your spreadsheets from the tool now start with the 2017 year.
Nwsteve
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Old 01-20-2016, 03:37 PM   #169
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I had an issue the other day with imported account data that FID did not "recognize". There was no way to input an AA against those accounts (mostly company managed retirement funds). So now I question the analysis of my situation. I posted a suggestion to them to allow manual input of AA against those types of imported funds.

Does anyone know of a way around this?

FWIW ... I'm only a few months away from my "Planned" ER ... who the heck decided to bash my portfolio just before I was get to FIRED?

PS: I was just on the RIP site and they'd lost the link to several of my imported accounts ... <sigh> ...
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Old 01-21-2016, 04:08 AM   #170
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As others have said, the under performing market scenario does hit your portfolio hard in the initial retirement years. As we all know, this is basically the worst case scenario from a sequence of returns standpoint. It is certainly one of the most conservative tools out there....this, for me, is one of the reasons I like to use it.
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Old 01-21-2016, 06:07 AM   #171
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Keep in mind, also, that the RIP tool takes out of your portfolio your budgeted annual spending at the beginning of the year. So, in effect, you will be down your withdrawal percentage net of any gains in the portfolio. For example, if you took the infamous 4% withdrawal and the market only provided dividends and growth of 2%, you are starting 2017 at 2% lower.
At least, that is how I understand it works. Notice when you look at your spreadsheets from the tool now start with the 2017 year.
Nwsteve
nwsteve, thanks for bringing this up but my calculations account for withdrawals.

=(B2-(B1-C1))*100/(B1-C1)
where B is beginning assets at the start of the year and C is withdrawal at the start of the year

Anyway, these are all estimates.
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Old 01-27-2016, 03:41 PM   #172
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Is there a way to remove linked accounts in the RIP tool? I want to use the manual input (since FID lost the links I put in) ...but now, some of the data is back. Messy.
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Old 01-27-2016, 04:52 PM   #173
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Is there a way to remove linked accounts in the RIP tool? I want to use the manual input (since FID lost the links I put in) ...but now, some of the data is back. Messy.

The answer is Yes. Go into the tool and run the analysis. Click the blue Accounts & Income Sources button on the left side halfway down the page, then click the + next to accounts. You can edit or delete the unwanted accounts from this page.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:40 PM   #174
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[QUOTE=nwsteve;1685892]
Quote:
Originally Posted by DEC-1982 View Post
Seeing how the equity market for this year has started, I am grateful for FIDO RIP putting out an ugly scenario for me. It expects the average return for my portfolio for the first 5 years to be something like 0.30% and a 10% drop for 2016. And that is including my bonds and my cash, not just equities.
QUOTE]

Keep in mind, also, that the RIP tool takes out of your portfolio your budgeted annual spending at the beginning of the year. So, in effect, you will be down your withdrawal percentage net of any gains in the portfolio. For example, if you took the infamous 4% withdrawal and the market only provided dividends and growth of 2%, you are starting 2017 at 2% lower.
At least, that is how I understand it works. Notice when you look at your spreadsheets from the tool now start with the 2017 year.
Nwsteve
so are you saying that you would take your distributions at the beginning of the year as a lump sum? I would think that a monthly distribution would be preferable. allowing time for those assets to grow throughout the year.
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Old 01-28-2016, 08:01 AM   #175
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for modeling purposes FIDO RIP takes it on the 1st of ea. year. You can choose to take distributions however works best for you.
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Old 01-28-2016, 08:33 AM   #176
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The answer is Yes. Go into the tool and run the analysis. Click the blue Accounts & Income Sources button on the left side halfway down the page, then click the + next to accounts. You can edit or delete the unwanted accounts from this page.
Unfortunately, only manually input accounts can be deleted. Once I 'link' an account, I can not delete it or edit anything except "Annual Contributions" to that account. That is why I was seeking another method to handle the linked accounts.
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Old 02-11-2016, 05:36 PM   #177
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I am new to using RIP. When I enter Medicare expenses in the budget, do I enter what my estimate is for what we'd pay in 2016, and then the tool will project what the cost will be when we are actually 65?

Or do I enter what I project costs for Medicare to be for us at age 65?
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Old 02-11-2016, 06:16 PM   #178
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I am new to using RIP. When I enter Medicare expenses in the budget, do I enter what my estimate is for what we'd pay in 2016, and then the tool will project what the cost will be when we are actually 65?

Or do I enter what I project costs for Medicare to be for us at age 65?
When I created my budget in RIP some years ago I allocated $15,000/year for Medical, and didn't attempt to estimate Medicare $ as any different to other health $. Insurance premiums and out of pocket costs have varied a lot for us this past few years so having a generous sum budgeted for healthcare is as much as I want to do.

That $15,000 is adjusted for inflation by RIP I think, but who really knows how health costs will increase either by price inflation and/or ill health.
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Old 02-12-2016, 04:09 AM   #179
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I am new to using RIP. When I enter Medicare expenses in the budget, do I enter what my estimate is for what we'd pay in 2016, and then the tool will project what the cost will be when we are actually 65?

Or do I enter what I project costs for Medicare to be for us at age 65?
You should input numbers all in today's dollars/costs and let the tool do the rest. RIP assumes 7% inflation rate for healthcare costs. You can see all the assumptions the tool makes if you click on the methodology tab at the top of the page. Here is the excerpt:


The Tool makes the following inflation assumptions and does not allow you to change these inflation rates.
  • Health Care Costs: The default inflation rate of health care costs is 7%. This figure is based on a study by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) (an agency of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services) estimating growth in health care costs between 2001 and 2011.
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Old 02-12-2016, 05:24 AM   #180
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You should input numbers all in today's dollars/costs and let the tool do the rest. RIP assumes 7% inflation rate for healthcare costs. You can see all the assumptions the tool makes if you click on the methodology tab at the top of the page. Here is the excerpt:

Thank you for the confirmation on how thought it worked. I'm really liking this tool.
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