|
|
12-05-2008, 01:48 PM
|
#21
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Houston
Posts: 1,448
|
In case you had any doubt in the accuracy of my new theory that down is the new up, just look at today's returns. +500k jobs lost last month but we're up 250 points. That's change you can believe in.
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
12-05-2008, 02:03 PM
|
#22
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by soupcxan
In case you had any doubt in the accuracy of my new theory that down is the new up, just look at today's returns. +500k jobs lost last month but we're up 250 points. That's change you can believe in.
|
So a 9% unemployment rate is another 2,000 points on the DOW, well I'll do my part and remain unemployed.
|
|
|
12-05-2008, 02:04 PM
|
#23
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
|
The sun will come out tomorrroooowww...
|
|
|
12-05-2008, 02:11 PM
|
#24
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,171
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by tangomonster
I wouldn't mind a session at Sarah's Smash Shack in San Diego, where customers pay for some time in a "break room" where they can smash dishes and so on to relieve stress:
Sarah's Smash Shack San Diego, CA
Then again, after a lifetime of being cheap---I mean frugal----and after all the money I've lost, I probably wouldn't pay $35 to smash 10 dishes!
|
Well, you could probably buy the dishes for a dollar each or maybe even less at any thrift store. Now all you need is somewhere to throw them!
|
|
|
12-05-2008, 02:31 PM
|
#25
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Los Angeles area
Posts: 329
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by kyounge1956
Well, you could probably buy the dishes for a dollar each or maybe even less at any thrift store. Now all you need is somewhere to throw them!
|
My cheap version of this is to go down to the local recycling center and chuck glass bottles into the bins really hard. 'Course, you gotta make sure you don't miss!
|
|
|
12-05-2008, 04:15 PM
|
#26
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,171
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by figner
My cheap version of this is to go down to the local recycling center and chuck glass bottles into the bins really hard. 'Course, you gotta make sure you don't miss!
|
LOL! Obviously you have me completely outclassed in the frugality department.
|
|
|
12-05-2008, 04:28 PM
|
#27
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by soupcxan
In case you had any doubt in the accuracy of my new theory that down is the new up, just look at today's returns. +500k jobs lost last month but we're up 250 points. That's change you can believe in.
|
Yes, I hope more people will appreciate this movement.
Earlier this week, the NBER has declared that we entered into a recession in Dec 07. It's been a year. Stock market probably is already at the bottom, although unemployment will continue to rise well into next year. In all previous recessions, the stock market always leaded the unemployment. I do not see why it should be different this time.
|
|
|
12-05-2008, 04:49 PM
|
#28
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,204
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Earlier this week, the NBER has declared that we entered into a recession in Dec 07. It's been a year. Stock market probably is already at the bottom, although unemployment will continue to rise well into next year. In all previous recessions, the stock market always leaded the unemployment. I do not see why it should be different this time.
|
Is the NBER also the governing body for economic expansions?
If so, does this mean when the recovery happens, we won't know it until a year later?
Dang!!!! I guess I'll stay invested since we're not going to know things have turned around until long after it happens. I'll be FI and not even know it...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
|
|
|
12-05-2008, 04:54 PM
|
#29
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
|
You have not been selling recently, have you?
Investing takes a strong stomach. We all think we are tough, until the bullets start whizzing above our heads.
I still got some cash, being below my usual 70% equity AA. But I will restrain myself from buying until next year. If the economy has really bottomed and truly picks up, I will look into sectors that usually lag in the recovery.
If things get worse, well, I can always share the "head banging" emoticon with Dawg.
|
|
|
12-05-2008, 04:57 PM
|
#30
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: East Nowhere, 43N Latitude, NY
Posts: 9,037
|
__________________
"All our dreams can come true, if we have the courage to pursue them." - Walt Disney
|
|
|
12-05-2008, 04:57 PM
|
#31
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
I still got some cash, being below my usual 70% equity AA. But I will restrain myself from buying until next year. If the economy has really bottomed and truly picks up, I will look into sectors that usually lag in the recovery.
|
Same here. I know I should be rebalancing, but I'm going to wait until the start of January. For one thing, that's when I usually rebalance. For another, I smell the potential for a lot of tax-loss selling and hedgies and institutions trying to finalize the leverage off their books before years end.
For that reason I just don't feel like this month will end well, today's rally notwithstanding. Still, if we get the tax loss selling and the hedge fund selling out of the way, it could set up for one heck of a January effect as long as Q4 earnings aren't much worse than the current pathetic revisions expect.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
|
|
|
12-05-2008, 07:33 PM
|
#32
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by soupcxan
In case you had any doubt in the accuracy of my new theory that down is the new up, just look at today's returns. +500k jobs lost last month but we're up 250 points. That's change you can believe in.
|
It's always a good sign when stocks can rise on bad news. It means a lot of pessimism is already priced in to the market. Not only is a 500K job loss a huge number in and of it self, it was almost 200k more than "street" expectations. By any standard, this was a huge miss . . . but somehow stocks were better on the day. Although I'm afraid we're still closer to the "end of the beginning" than the beginning of the end of this crisis, I like today's stock action better than any of the much larger one day gainers we've had recently.
|
|
|
12-05-2008, 07:43 PM
|
#33
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by . . . Yrs to Go
Not only is a 500K job loss a huge number in and of it self, it was almost 200k more than "street" expectations. By any standard, this was a huge miss . . . but somehow stocks were better on the day.
|
But the drop of the market is also huge. Nobody expects so many stocks to get to mid single-digit P/E's either.
So, I hope the market god calls it even and cuts us some slack.
|
|
|
12-05-2008, 07:47 PM
|
#34
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Newport Beach
Posts: 122
|
I am getting the sense that the bottom is near by the level of hysteria that accompanied the jobs report:
This is almost indescribably terrible. In the past six months the U.S. has lost 1.55 million jobs, almost as many as were lost in the whole 2001 recession, which included 9/11 and the two months after. The pace of job losses is accelerating alarmingly, as this report attests, with steep drops in most sectors but the biggest deterioration in services — down 370,000 in November after 153,000 in October. Note education/health and governmentt added 59,000, so core private payrolls even worse than headline. Desperate. –Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics
These are god-awful numbers. The economy is headed downhill and the brakes are not working. There are so many layoff announcements that it is hard to keep track of. Some businesses are cutting jobs in anticipation of tougher times. This is especially true for retail, manufacturing and finance, which accounts for the bulk of jobs in the country. They want to trim fats and stay lean and mean for the tough times ahead. Also, business spending will be a drag on the economy in the foreseeable future. –Sung Won Sohn, Smith School of Business and Economics
This was much worse than was expected and represents wholesale capitulation. The threat of a widespread depression is now real and present. –Peter Morici, University of Maryland
|
|
|
12-05-2008, 10:03 PM
|
#35
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by . . . Yrs to Go
It's always a good sign when stocks can rise on bad news. It means a lot of pessimism is already priced in to the market. Not only is a 500K job loss a huge number in and of it self, it was almost 200k more than "street" expectations. By any standard, this was a huge miss . . . but somehow stocks were better on the day. Although I'm afraid we're still closer to the "end of the beginning" than the beginning of the end of this crisis, I like today's stock action better than any of the much larger one day gainers we've had recently.
|
Probably just a bear market bounce due to an over sold market. I don't think we are in a new "bull" yet.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
|
|
|
12-05-2008, 10:31 PM
|
#36
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
|
I myself simply hope that we thread water for a while. As long as I do not set a new personal "low", which coincided with the market on Nov 20, I am OK with it. I won't be buying nor selling for a while, sitting at around 50% equity right now.
|
|
|
12-06-2008, 01:30 PM
|
#37
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
|
Probably, but we won't know until after the fact. Unemployment is always a trailing indicators while the stock market looks ahead. While my guess is we won't see a sustained rally for some time, we could be at a market plateau, which would be a welcome change from the vertical down market we've been experiencing.
|
|
|
12-06-2008, 05:54 PM
|
#38
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 4,898
|
I wonder why so many rely on the adage: the market bottoms when the hysteria gets manic. Who came up with that? Why do you believe it unequivicably? I know that people behave predictably and perhaps behavioral economics plays into this theory.
But there is the possibility, and not exactly remote either, that things are going to get worse next year and the market, reacting to further corporate losses, unemployment, foreclosures, state government insolvency, and more federal bailouts, may decide to anticipate even worse returns and fall further.
then there's the international component. I don't even want to speculate there.
Just throwing it out there. I think it's a problem (and a danger) to rely on old homilies to explain past markets during an unpredictable crisis like this one.
|
|
|
12-06-2008, 06:33 PM
|
#39
|
Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,585
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oldbabe
I wonder why so many rely on the adage: the market bottoms when the hysteria gets manic. Who came up with that? Why do you believe it unequivicably? I know that people behave predictably and perhaps behavioral economics plays into this theory.
But there is the possibility, and not exactly remote either, that things are going to get worse next year and the market, reacting to further corporate losses, unemployment, foreclosures, state government insolvency, and more federal bailouts, may decide to anticipate even worse returns and fall further.
then there's the international component. I don't even want to speculate there.
Just throwing it out there. I think it's a problem (and a danger) to rely on old homilies to explain past markets during an unpredictable crisis like this one.
|
Hi Oldbabe
I think there is some truth to the adage. It's the final irrationality that creates much of the subsequent opportunity. Problem is, it's hard to tell the difference between rational pessimism and fear driven panic until after the fact. Beforehand they both look quite similar.
I find it very helpful to filter out most of the opinions and pronouncements and listen to just a few - but listen to them over long periods of time. I also look for opinions made by people that seem to share similar risk tolerance.
Michael
|
|
|
12-07-2008, 06:46 AM
|
#40
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,204
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oldbabe
I wonder why so many rely on the adage: the market bottoms when the hysteria gets manic. Who came up with that? Why do you believe it unequivicably? I know that people behave predictably and perhaps behavioral economics plays into this theory.
But there is the possibility, and not exactly remote either, that things are going to get worse next year and the market, reacting to further corporate losses, unemployment, foreclosures, state government insolvency, and more federal bailouts, may decide to anticipate even worse returns and fall further.
then there's the international component. I don't even want to speculate there.
Just throwing it out there. I think it's a problem (and a danger) to rely on old homilies to explain past markets during an unpredictable crisis like this one.
|
There is evidence to support the adage, but this time it 'could be different' as you suggest. And I don't think most of us are discounting the possibility that things could get worse before they get better.
Fortunately most of us on this forum are not kids anymore and we've seen these things play out over and over, not only with markets/investments but countless other areas. And so we've all come to realize a convincing case can (and will) be made for anything along the continuum between unbridled optimism and paralyzing pessimism. Since no one has a crystal ball, this is a debate between glass half full and glass half empty...have at it.
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|