Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-04-2006, 06:20 AM   #21
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

Any budding authors out there? I might even jump on this one.

Do a history of "disasters" or "end of the world scenarios" that have swept through civilization. I've read about many in my readings but I never saw a single volume that talked about them. If done right, it would be funny and a revealing window into the human soul.

The Aztec's had a good one based on their calendar that they sacrificed untold thousands to avoid destruction but then it made them more easily conquered (and destroyed) when the Spanish did show up -- self-fulfilling! On the previous millenium (1000 AD) we had even more crazy stuff than Y2K. In the 1830s we had several mass gatherings waiting for the world to end. It was a major event that seems to have been lost to our history.

Fact -- We have a long, well documented history of climate change. As hard as it is to believe, we don't really control much about what happens to this planet on a macro level.
__________________

__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-04-2006, 07:32 AM   #22
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 438
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

1. I'm not convinced there is this impending disaster due to a dramatic shift in climate. I'm not convinced there is even a long term "warming" going on.

2. If there is, there is no data to link it to the use of fossil fuels which is a pathetic dribble in the world carbon balance. One of the key principals of statistics is that "correlation does not equal causation."

3. Back in the 70's we were causing global cooling by the use of fossil fuels. Obviously, that didn't pan out so we're going another route.

Impendimg disaster is unlikely. Stopping the thermohaline flow into the north atlantic and cooling Europe incommonly mentioned, but this is driven also by wind and wave action, so unless weather stops, its not likely a serious problem.

Global warming is driven mostly by water vapor (95%), which is generally ignored by man- made global warming advocates, as opposed to carbon dioxide (3%), and other gases (2%). Its hard to blame man for the oceans.

I too remenber the cool chill from the coming ice age, with temperatures trending down between the 1940's and 1970's. We may simply be resuming the upward trend from the trough of the little ice age.

Somewhat like financial history, be wary of starting and ending dates of climate studies.
__________________

__________________
rmark is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-04-2006, 07:45 AM   #23
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

Hmmmm

We humans are mildly arrogant as a species - tending to think it's all about us.

heh heh heh heh heh heh heh
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-04-2006, 08:01 AM   #24
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
HFWR's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 12,964
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

My thoughts exactly..... The earth will be here LONG after we're gone. Better to save the humans...

heh heh 8)
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-04-2006, 08:20 AM   #25
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

Now on the plus side of global warming, climate change and mass disaster -- our SWR can be dramatically increased since we can be sure we won't live as long.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-05-2006, 01:25 PM   #26
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 438
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

http://www.clearlight.com/~mhieb/WVF...ouse_data.html
__________________
rmark is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-05-2006, 04:02 PM   #27
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

there is enough oil in the continental US to meet our needs for centuries. ANWR and the Rocky Mountains have more oil than Saudi Arabia. there is also the eastern gulf of mexico and the continental shelf. All these areas are politically off limits and the same people that harp about peak oil fight against opening these areas to oil extraction.
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-05-2006, 04:30 PM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,614
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

rmark,

- That's an interesiting link, lots of info that helps put the CO2 debate into perspective. Questions:
-- To know if it is legit, we'd need to know who is taking credit for the info on that page (including the numbers) --it's hard to tell from the URL or anything else on the page. So, it raises a flag concerning credibility. Solid sources are listed at the end--but I haven't done the sleuthing to check them out.
-- Even if human contributions to total CO2 are tiny, and even if CO2 itself is swamped by the warming effect of water vapor, that doesn't necessarily mean that anthropogenic CO2 isn't producing every bit of the warming we've seen (the tiny extra amount could be having an effect out of proportion to it's quantity due to feedback mechanisms we don't understand, etc. ) Still, it seems that other, simpler explanations are more liely to be right in this case. Occam's razor and all . . .

**********************
From the link:
Anthropogenic (man-made) Contribution to the "Greenhouse Effect," expressed as % of Total (water vapor INCLUDED) Based on concentrations (ppb) adjusted for heat retention characteristics: 0.28%

********************
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-05-2006, 05:51 PM   #29
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 322
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

Well when the oil runs out they wont have to worry about global warming so much

Ah I remember (faintly) 30 yrs ago in high school having the same discussion. Be an owl give a hoot and dont pollute and dont forget to turn the lights off.

Maybe they will finally get nuclear fission or is it fussion and really screw things up ?
__________________
spideyrdpd is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-05-2006, 06:28 PM   #30
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,614
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

Fusion is still a long way off (well, we have it and it works great, but just in warheads/bombs)

Fission: Works great, works with our present power supply infrastructure, fuel cost is low (largely due to govt "subsidies," since I believe fuel is still largely a byproduct of military processing/enrichment). New reactor designs can be made entirely meltdown-proof and very proliferation-resistant (pebble-bed reactors). Pollution is thermal (which it shares with most power producton means, even, indirectly, solar) and radioactive waste (which is long-lived, but all in one spot and easily collected compared to hydrocarbon exhaust products). If the environmental movement is really serious about doing something in the short term about CO2 emissions, they'll push for more nuclear plants. Some moderate voices in the movement are already doing so.



__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-06-2006, 09:32 AM   #31
Full time employment: Posting here.
bosco's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 987
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem
Fusion is still a long way off (well, we have it and it works great, but just in warheads/bombs)

Fission: Works great, works with our present power supply infrastructure, fuel cost is low (largely due to govt "subsidies," since I believe fuel is still largely a byproduct of military processing/enrichment). New reactor designs can be made entirely meltdown-proof and very proliferation-resistant (pebble-bed reactors). Pollution is thermal (which it shares with most power producton means, even, indirectly, solar) and radioactive waste (which is long-lived, but all in one spot and easily collected compared to hydrocarbon exhaust products). If the environmental movement is really serious about doing something in the short term about CO2 emissions, they'll push for more nuclear plants. Some moderate voices in the movement are already doing so.



of course there is the small problem of what to do with the waste, which has a half-life in thousands of years. The best solution that has been come up with so far is to bury it and hope that the burial site is geologically stable and that future centuries will retain records of where it is.

Also, the cost of decommissioning these things is very high, and they only have a 25-30 year life. Most just sit there not decommisioned (terrorist targets?), a nice fiscal present to future generations.

When proponents say they are cheap, they conveniently forget these factors.

Aside from the waste issues, however, they are much easier on air quality. But like all power generation except solar and hydro, they create thermal pollution due to the fact that they require a temperature differential to work. All they really are is nuclear-powered boilers.
__________________
I have an inferiority complex, but it's not a very good one.
bosco is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-06-2006, 10:01 AM   #32
Administrator
Gumby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 10,137
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bosco
Also, the cost of decommissioning these things is very high, and they only have a 25-30 year life.*
True about the cost of decommissioning.* But consider that many of the US nuclear plants have recently obtained 20-year license extensions from the NRC and most of the remainder are expected to apply for extensions shortly.* Continued extensions when these are up are not entirely out of the question.

With respect to the high level waste, if we would reprocess our spent fuel (as the French do) we could greatly reduce the volume of waste.* The vast majority of the uranium in a spent fuel rod is still there -- the buildup of fission products just makes it impossible to use the remaining uranium.* Reprocessing separates the fission products and reuses the uranium.* Only the fission products then need to be stored.

The safest place to put high level waste is in dry storage at Yucca Mountain, where it can be heavily guarded.* Leaving it in spent fuel pools at reactor sites around the country is not the preferred option.
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
Gumby is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-06-2006, 10:02 AM   #33
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,614
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bosco
of course there is the small problem of what to do with the waste, which has a half-life in thousands of years. The best solution that has been come up with so far is to bury it and hope that the burial site is geologically stable and that future centuries will retain records of where it is.

Also, the cost of decommissioning these things is very high, and they only have a 25-30 year life. Most just sit there not decommisioned (terrorist targets?), a nice fiscal present to future generations.

When proponents say they are cheap, they conveniently forget these factors.

Aside from the waste issues, however, they are much easier on air quality. But like all power generation except solar and hydro, they create thermal pollution due to the fact that they require a temperature differential to work. All they really are is nuclear-powered boilers.
The waste disposal issue is not so much a technical one but a political one. Encasement of the higher-level waste in glass-like blocks and entombing it at Yucca Mountan is a good technical answer, but Nevadans arent cheering about it. Regardless, taking care of this waste that is identifiable, concentrated, and produced at regular intervals is much easier than taking care of than waste in gaseous/particulate form, continuously produced, to the tune of thousands of tons per year.

Thermal pollution from solar power: Production of PV cells is very energy intensive (most of the energy used to produce them comes from--wait for it . . . fossil fuelsl. Yippee!). It takes approx 5 years of use before the current generation of PV cells generate enough energy to "pay back" the energy used in their manufacture So, there's thermal pollution with solar as well. Of course, the nuclear plants also consume energy in thier construction and the production of fuel--but I don't have figures on that.

Decomissioning of nuclear plants is a problem. There's one proposal to change our entire method of building the plants that woud address this and some other concerns: Instead of building each plant from a unique set of plans, we should build the "guts" of the reactors in a few centralized location, as you woud build a ship. Then, transort these to each location, where the ancilary stuff is connected. At the end of the servce life, disconnect and dispose of the unitary reactor component and plug in the model that has replaced it. Advantages: easier disposal (no site disassembly of "hot" components) and better safety/reliabilty through standardization. The French have a very good nuclear power program, and have just a few standardized designs. Their joke to a US visitor: "In France, we have 300 kinds of cheese and one type of nuclear reactor. In the US, it is just the opposite."

Now, let's talk about the advantages of breeder reactors in reducing fuel costs and greenhouse gasses . . . (Incoming!)
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-06-2006, 10:22 AM   #34
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,616
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bosco
of course there is the small problem of what to do with the waste, which has a half-life in thousands of years.* The best solution that has been come up with so far is to bury it and hope that the burial site is geologically stable and that future centuries will retain records of where it is.
Also, the cost of decommissioning these things is very high, and they only have a 25-30 year life.* Most just sit there not decommisioned (terrorist targets?), a nice fiscal present to future generations.
When proponents say they are cheap, they conveniently forget these factors.
Aside from the waste issues, however, they are much easier on air quality.* But like all power generation except solar and hydro, they create thermal pollution due to the fact that they require a temperature differential to work.* All they really are is nuclear-powered boilers.
We've learned a lot about nuclear design in the last 50 years, and the PBR plants have far less waste & activated components than their PWR predecessors...
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-06-2006, 09:59 PM   #35
Full time employment: Posting here.
bosco's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 987
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gumby

The safest place to put high level waste is in dry storage at Yucca Mountain, where it can be heavily guarded.
We are talking about half-lives in thousands of years. Much longer than the half-life of any country or empire and those who serve it as guards. At least thus far in human history. Although Americans may just be arrogant enough to believe that they are the exception.

For the record, I am an engineer and I'd rather have a nuke plant near my house than a coal-burner. But I do think that the larger issues also need to be part of the discussion and these issues transcend nationalities, generations, and even millenia.
__________________
I have an inferiority complex, but it's not a very good one.
bosco is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-06-2006, 10:19 PM   #36
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,614
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bosco
We are talking about half-lives in thousands of years. Much longer than the half-life of any country or empire and those who serve it as guards. At least thus far in human history. Although Americans may just be arrogant enough to believe that they are the exception.

For the record, I am an engineer and I'd rather have a nuke plant near my house than a coal-burner. But I do think that the larger issues also need to be part of the discussion and these issues transcend nationalities, generations, and even millenia.
Well, this American hopes we'll be the exception. And I hope Canada is still there, too.

We know where Stonehenge is, and it has been there awhile. I think it is ironic that folks who claim that mankind is changing _________ (fill in the blank--the rainforest, the Grand Canyon, the balance of gases in the atmosphere) forever and irrevocably find no inconsistency in claiming that mankind is incapable of deliberately marking one site forever and irrevocably to be avoided for a few millenia.

If folks following us can't figure this out on their own, we've got more serious problems as a species.

__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?
Old 07-07-2006, 08:38 AM   #37
Full time employment: Posting here.
bosco's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 987
Re: Finite Resources - investment or collapse?

I apologize for my inflammatory comment about Americans (for the record, I hold US citizenship).

However, I stand by my statement that it is not realistic to produce toxic substances that last thousands of years, and then assert that one's government--ANY government, can be counted on to keep it secure.

__________________

__________________
I have an inferiority complex, but it's not a very good one.
bosco is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Investment cost basis justification for taxes Delawaredave FIRE and Money 8 01-07-2007 09:21 PM
What is this investment ? Delawaredave FIRE and Money 9 12-27-2006 01:42 PM
Looking for opinions on this Unit Investment Trust Dude FIRE and Money 15 03-07-2006 11:37 AM
Reading 'Collapse' got me thinking Nicholas Other topics 8 06-20-2005 11:13 PM
Advice on a Re-Mortgage & Investment Plan SDY888 FIRE and Money 12 08-04-2004 11:33 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:38 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.