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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 07:42 AM   #61
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Re: Fire sale going on

Brewer; I took my 6-7% profit long ago (on $5k mentioned at that spike) but left MOVI on my streamer which explains the revival of this old thread and AUCH I do not hope you held it all the way down? About 5 bucks now...
Cheers!
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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 07:49 AM   #62
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Re: Fire sale going on

Nope, bailed out a while ago. Sometimes things don't work out the way you'd like.

So long as the successes more than outweigh the failures, that's OK.
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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 07:53 AM   #63
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Re: Fire sale going on

Hope you didn't lose too much.* As i said, mail order dvd is in, anything that isnt mail order dvd is out, big time.* *No surprises here.

Netflix continues to go up and up.

I dont buy individual stocks, but i'd pick a mail-order DVD if i did;* probably netflix since they're the one i use.* I couldn't be more happy with their service.* *From a personal experience, it revolutionized renting movies for me.* *To not have to drive to a video store to get a movie AND to return it is a godsend. No late fees is also a godsend.
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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 07:58 AM   #64
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Re: Fire sale going on

It still isn't clear to me that NFLX will ever make enough money to justify the stock price.

I'm a lot more interested in businesses that flow obscene amounts of cash.
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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 08:02 AM   #65
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Re: Fire sale going on

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Huh?* You mean criteria, or some sort of formal mechanical thing?

I think SPH starts to look attractive at a yield around 8% because:

- I know and understand the business (used to own the stock)
- I think I understand the reason why it has sold off
- When I do a simple single stage DDM with a ~3.5% div. growth rate, 4.3% risk free rate, and some assumption about risk premium (3.7% isn't a bad start), I come up with a MUCH bigger number (~55) than the current stock price (~31)
- tax deferred yield is nice
- IMO, mgmt is reasonably good.* Conservative, competent, but still willing to strike if they think they see a good opportunity (Agway Energy deal of a year or so ago).
Regarding SPH

I'm in at 34 :P but those divvys are very tasty. Not too late to get in on the January. Maybe time for me to DCA.


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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 08:03 AM   #66
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Re: Fire sale going on

Whether current stock prices are representative of a companies' worth is beyond my ability, which is why i prefer to just stick to mutual funds. *

All i can say with accuracy is that Netflix is a great company and is very enjoyable to be a part of. *I love everything about it; *being able to load up your queue with a bunch of movies and then just letting them ship them to you as you watch them. * The ease of walking out to your mailbox and there they are! *and also sending them back is so painless.

I guess its like other hot companies like ebay/paypal, and google. *No doubt the companies are great, but trying to figure out whether a stock price represents the greatness is the tricky part. *

If i had to guess, i bet netflix is fairly priced at the moment simply because several other companies are/were trying to compete with them (like amazon and walmart), so its not clear who'll end up being the winner when everythings said and done. * This competition is hurting the stock of netflix because a lot of folks are betting the 1000 pound gorillas like amazon and walmart will price squeeze them to death.
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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 08:08 AM   #67
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Re: Fire sale going on

Quote:
Originally Posted by BUM
Regarding SPH

I'm in at 34* :P* *but those divvys are very tasty. Not too late to get in on the January. Maybe time for me to DCA.


I sold at 36 and change. Earnings released this morning weren't too pretty, but they weren't disastrous either. If they manage their way through this winter, things should be fine. I am starting to get interested at current levels. A couple more bucks and I'll probably jump in. I think SPH is not a bad play if you think we will hit a soft patch/recession next year.
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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 08:39 AM   #68
 
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Re: Fire sale going on

I'm sorry to pick on you Brewer, I know you're a smart guy. But this one picture says it all as to why a good old boring index buy and hold approach beats the excitement of individual stock trading.
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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 08:41 AM   #69
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Re: Fire sale going on

Over the years, I've made more good decisions than bad regarding stock picks and market timing, but it makes my head hurt...
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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 08:47 AM   #70
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Re: Fire sale going on

Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
I'm sorry to pick on you Brewer, I know you're a smart guy.
Now you have to post a chart & thread comments from one of his GOOD picks.
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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 09:01 AM   #71
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Re: Fire sale going on

Al, pick all you want. I learn from the things that blow up (usually more than I learn from my successes). I intentionally invest in volatile stuff. Sometimes individual exposures will blow up; that's part of the equation. Over time, however, the returns of volatile stuff are very attractive. Plus, I didn't take the beating in 2001-2003 that the indexes did (I made money through the equity market crash). As always, I suggest that anyone reading my dribblings here do their own due diligence.
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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 09:03 AM   #72
 
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Re: Fire sale going on

Here's a good pick.
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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 09:54 AM   #73
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Re: Fire sale going on

Ok, the clock has to be ticking on a short squeeze for MOVI...almost 50% of the outstanding shares are short, and it continues to decline...when it pops, I bet it pops big.
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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 10:04 AM   #74
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Re: Fire sale going on

Quote:
Originally Posted by soupcxan
Ok, the clock has to be ticking on a short squeeze for MOVI...almost 50% of the outstanding shares are short, and it continues to decline...when it pops, I bet it pops big.
Man, someone finally said it.

But I bet we can watch it go lower for another few months. $4? $3?
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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 10:25 AM   #75
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Re: Fire sale going on

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Man, someone finally said it.

But I bet we can watch it go lower for another few months.* $4?* $3?
There has to be a catalyst for a short squeeze. If MOVI muddes through until next year and then reports SSS are going up in the mid single digits, I'd expect a flurry of short covering. OTOH, if things keep going the way they have, the shorts may never have to cover. One of the great things about being short something that eventually goes BK is that you NEVER have to cover. That also means that you never have to realize the gain for tax purposes, even though you can generally do what you please with the cash you made off the trade.

I'm expecting a short squeeze in PPD, but the recent lawsuit BS has put a damper on things for the moment. Unless it entirely derails the bank loan negotiations (which I don't think will happen), I am expecting a lot of pressure to be brought to bear on a large short position
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Re: Fire sale going on
Old 11-17-2005, 09:00 PM   #76
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Re: Fire sale going on

Al; good graph - the spike a few days after the first news is not that big, so I checked my gambling/trading account:
2005-08-15 12:54:27 Sell MOVI (Stk) 240 22.05 5.00 0.00 5287.00
2005-08-11 13:23:02 Buy MOVI (Stk) 240 20.80 5.00 4997.00 0.00

So after costs ($10) I earned $280 which is about 3 months of groceries or 1 year of internet+water+drinking water+ change for a 6-pack of beer every month here in Thailand.

PCRDX (or PCRIX in my case) have done great - YTD nothing I hold beat the VGPMX (metals/mining) though being up 30%.

Brewer good to know that you did not follow it all the way down - you wrote that you held a substantial position so I was a bit worried.

Cheers!
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Old 05-02-2010, 09:11 PM   #77
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Wow, this thread is so old that it predates the stockpicking forum.

I keep a postmortem file for my most interesting stock picks, so I thought I'd revive this 1627-day-old thread to point out that MOVI is not only still wandering aimlessly through their second bankruptcy, but is also closing all of their U.S. stores.

Movie Gallery to close all U.S. stores: report | Reuters

I've learned almost as much from MOVI/MVGWQ as I have from Nortel, Berkshire Hathaway, ISM/OSM, and Apple...
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Old 05-02-2010, 09:13 PM   #78
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Eh, you win some, you lose some.
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Old 05-02-2010, 09:25 PM   #79
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Quote:
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Eh, you win some, you lose some.
I appreciate reading over your shoulder, so to speak, and your thoughts on shipping stocks turned me on to that industry when it had been severely beaten upon. I found two issues I liked and doubled my money on a couple of short term trades. Thanks for sharing your thoughts from time to time.
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Old 05-02-2010, 11:45 PM   #80
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Eh, you win some, you lose some.
The former is far ahead of the latter in cap gains...

... but the latter is always more educational.
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