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Old 01-05-2013, 04:33 AM   #1
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FIRECalc

Good day. Many here are familiar with FIRECalc and I enjoy running various scenarios of my (hopefully) nearing retirement. I'm curious, though, of potential issues I'm glossing over as I stare gleefully at a 100% success rate.

Suppose a set of assumptions show a 100% success rate in FIRECalc. What could still be an issue in your mind (that could derail your retirement financial success) - especially for early retiree's (late 40's in my case)?

A few things come to mind:

1. Health / Health insurance - Would my (or my spouse's) health fail leading to a huge out of pocket expenses? What will health insurance premiums be in the future? Certainly higher than in the past, which is what FIRECalc is based on.
2. Market returns outside of historical results - Suppose the market SEVERELY tanked and stayed down for a LONG period of time. Would your now reduced assets produce enough income?
3. Disease, famine, epidemics, civil war, etc. - No way to predict these so I suppose we just ignore the risks.....right?

Are there other potential issues that might undermine a 100% success rate?

Thanks.

jarts98
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Old 01-05-2013, 06:08 AM   #2
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4. Investing too conservatively to begin with.
5. Getting scared by a market downturn and selling stocks at the bottom.
6. You live a long, long, long time.
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Old 01-05-2013, 06:52 AM   #3
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Old 01-05-2013, 06:57 AM   #4
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Zimbabwe style hyperinflation.
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Old 01-05-2013, 07:10 AM   #5
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Bad assumptions.
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Old 01-05-2013, 07:12 AM   #6
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Old 01-05-2013, 07:15 AM   #7
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Old 01-05-2013, 07:16 AM   #8
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Old 01-05-2013, 07:19 AM   #9
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Macroeconomic shift of power away from the US, government insolvency, austerity and reduced consumerism domestically.
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Old 01-05-2013, 07:23 AM   #10
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But you are correct that many will fall
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Old 01-05-2013, 07:43 AM   #11
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Old 01-05-2013, 07:43 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarts98 View Post
Good day. Many here are familiar with FIRECalc and I enjoy running various scenarios of my (hopefully) nearing retirement. I'm curious, though, of potential issues I'm glossing over as I stare gleefully at a 100% success rate.

Suppose a set of assumptions show a 100% success rate in FIRECalc. What could still be an issue in your mind (that could derail your retirement financial success) - especially for early retiree's (late 40's in my case)?
...
Suppose some of those successful lines go down to maybe 20% of your starting retirement funds (after inflation) and then flatten or maybe go up a bit. Would you have been able to spend in those rotten return years or would you have drastically reduced your spending and even pulled back from your targeted AA?

There is a place to put down the minimum acceptable portfolio value at all times. It is on the "investigate" tab at the bottom.

When I run FIRECalc I put a value in there that will be something I can live with in a real life market meltdown. It might be 50% of my starting portfolio value. Still would be scary hitting that mark.
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Old 01-05-2013, 07:51 AM   #13
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Wait a minute! You mean that FIRECALC doesn't take all those things into consideration?

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Old 01-05-2013, 07:57 AM   #14
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Wait a minute! You mean that FIRECALC doesn't take all those things into consideration?
You have to go to the "What could possibly go wrong?" tab and click on the appropriate disaster. Note that FIRECalc will only allow you to choose one since history shows one will be more than sufficient.
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Old 01-05-2013, 08:04 AM   #15
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You have to go to the "What could possibly go wrong?" tab and click on the appropriate disaster. Note that FIRECalc will only allow you to choose one since history shows one will be more than sufficient.
Now you tell me! After I did that and clicked on "Zombies", I find that I never should have RE'd!!
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Old 01-05-2013, 08:09 AM   #16
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Now you tell me! After I did that and clicked on "Zombies", I find that I never should have RE'd!!
We love zombies here - see the second Mayan Prediction thread!
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Old 01-05-2013, 08:23 AM   #17
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Don't you think Jarts98 deserves some serious answers along with the humor?
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Old 01-05-2013, 08:34 AM   #18
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Since health care is the biggest single expenditure in my planned retirement budget my biggest worry is that estimate. Also, my firecalc estimate includes some social security income which is another area of uncertainty.
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Old 01-05-2013, 08:34 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
Don't you think Jarts98 deserves some serious answers along with the humor?
Post #9 was a totally serious answer.
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Old 01-05-2013, 08:38 AM   #20
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Don't you think Jarts98 deserves some serious answers along with the humor?
Certainly, and as Mead said, she gave him one as did racy in post #2, plus others.

Truth is, trying to figure out "what else could go wrong" is an exercise in futility - the list is limitless and the future is unknowable.
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