Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
FIRECalc
Old 01-05-2013, 05:33 AM   #1
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 29
FIRECalc

Good day. Many here are familiar with FIRECalc and I enjoy running various scenarios of my (hopefully) nearing retirement. I'm curious, though, of potential issues I'm glossing over as I stare gleefully at a 100% success rate.

Suppose a set of assumptions show a 100% success rate in FIRECalc. What could still be an issue in your mind (that could derail your retirement financial success) - especially for early retiree's (late 40's in my case)?

A few things come to mind:

1. Health / Health insurance - Would my (or my spouse's) health fail leading to a huge out of pocket expenses? What will health insurance premiums be in the future? Certainly higher than in the past, which is what FIRECalc is based on.
2. Market returns outside of historical results - Suppose the market SEVERELY tanked and stayed down for a LONG period of time. Would your now reduced assets produce enough income?
3. Disease, famine, epidemics, civil war, etc. - No way to predict these so I suppose we just ignore the risks.....right?

Are there other potential issues that might undermine a 100% success rate?

Thanks.

jarts98
__________________

__________________
jarts98 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-05-2013, 07:08 AM   #2
Recycles dryer sheets
racy's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 329
4. Investing too conservatively to begin with.
5. Getting scared by a market downturn and selling stocks at the bottom.
6. You live a long, long, long time.
__________________

__________________
The Big Lebowski: Are you employed, sir?
The Dude: Employed?
racy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 07:52 AM   #3
Moderator Emeritus
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 34,150
Asteroid
__________________
Numbers is hard...



REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 07:57 AM   #4
Full time employment: Posting here.
JoeWras's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 965
Zimbabwe style hyperinflation.
__________________
JoeWras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 08:10 AM   #5
Full time employment: Posting here.
Brett_Cameron's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: South Eastern USA
Posts: 946
Bad assumptions.
__________________
Brett_Cameron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 08:12 AM   #6
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Headed back to the polar vortex
Posts: 15,257
Alien invasion.
__________________
So far so good
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 08:15 AM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
steelyman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 2,496
Zombies!
__________________
Retired October 2012.
steelyman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 08:16 AM   #8
Recycles dryer sheets
Richard4444's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: South Florida
Posts: 243
Nomad

from Star Trek's 'The Changeling'
__________________
Richard4444 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 08:19 AM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Meadbh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 7,750
Macroeconomic shift of power away from the US, government insolvency, austerity and reduced consumerism domestically.
__________________
For more about me, see my profile.
Meadbh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 08:23 AM   #10
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Headed back to the polar vortex
Posts: 15,257
Quote:
Originally Posted by steelyman View Post
Zombies!
In the case of zombie uprising we do have options






But you are correct that many will fall
__________________
So far so good
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 08:43 AM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 1,038
Divorce
__________________
In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not.
Lazarus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 08:43 AM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 3,709
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarts98 View Post
Good day. Many here are familiar with FIRECalc and I enjoy running various scenarios of my (hopefully) nearing retirement. I'm curious, though, of potential issues I'm glossing over as I stare gleefully at a 100% success rate.

Suppose a set of assumptions show a 100% success rate in FIRECalc. What could still be an issue in your mind (that could derail your retirement financial success) - especially for early retiree's (late 40's in my case)?
...
Suppose some of those successful lines go down to maybe 20% of your starting retirement funds (after inflation) and then flatten or maybe go up a bit. Would you have been able to spend in those rotten return years or would you have drastically reduced your spending and even pulled back from your targeted AA?

There is a place to put down the minimum acceptable portfolio value at all times. It is on the "investigate" tab at the bottom.

When I run FIRECalc I put a value in there that will be something I can live with in a real life market meltdown. It might be 50% of my starting portfolio value. Still would be scary hitting that mark.
__________________
Lsbcal is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 08:51 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,257
Wait a minute! You mean that FIRECALC doesn't take all those things into consideration?

__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 08:57 AM   #14
Moderator Emeritus
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 34,150
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko View Post
Wait a minute! You mean that FIRECALC doesn't take all those things into consideration?
You have to go to the "What could possibly go wrong?" tab and click on the appropriate disaster. Note that FIRECalc will only allow you to choose one since history shows one will be more than sufficient.
__________________
Numbers is hard...



REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 09:04 AM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,257
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
You have to go to the "What could possibly go wrong?" tab and click on the appropriate disaster. Note that FIRECalc will only allow you to choose one since history shows one will be more than sufficient.
Now you tell me! After I did that and clicked on "Zombies", I find that I never should have RE'd!!
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 09:09 AM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
steelyman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 2,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko View Post

Now you tell me! After I did that and clicked on "Zombies", I find that I never should have RE'd!!
We love zombies here - see the second Mayan Prediction thread!
__________________
Retired October 2012.
steelyman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 09:23 AM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 3,709
Don't you think Jarts98 deserves some serious answers along with the humor?
__________________
Lsbcal is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 09:34 AM   #18
Dryer sheet wannabe
INTJ10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 19
Since health care is the biggest single expenditure in my planned retirement budget my biggest worry is that estimate. Also, my firecalc estimate includes some social security income which is another area of uncertainty.
__________________
INTJ10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 09:34 AM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Meadbh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 7,750
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
Don't you think Jarts98 deserves some serious answers along with the humor?
Post #9 was a totally serious answer.
__________________
For more about me, see my profile.
Meadbh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2013, 09:38 AM   #20
Moderator Emeritus
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 34,150
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
Don't you think Jarts98 deserves some serious answers along with the humor?
Certainly, and as Mead said, she gave him one as did racy in post #2, plus others.

Truth is, trying to figure out "what else could go wrong" is an exercise in futility - the list is limitless and the future is unknowable.
__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard...



REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:02 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Early Retirement News right to your Email!

Stay up-to-date with all the latest news to your inbox!

unsusbcribe at anytime with one click

Close [X]