Ready
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I know that seeing 100% success rate in Firecalc gives a certain confidence level that we will not deplete our savings if we stick with the budgetary number we enter. I continue to question the current bond market though, and whether Firecalc may be misleading us into a level of confidence that may not be warranted.
Looking at bond rates over the past 86 years or so, it appears they have never been as low as they are now. For a good number of years, they have been above 8%. While we have no way of predicting where they will go over the next thirty or forty years, how concerned should we be that they are at historical lows now, with no reason to believe they will return to higher levels any time soon. Thinking about the sequence of returns, if the next five to ten years have below average returns, and 50% of my portfolio is in bonds, is Firecalc being overly optimistic?
Vanguard has a web page that shows the historical average of different asset allocations. They show 100% stocks returning 10%, while 50/50 returning 8.3%. Clearly with bonds being in the 1-3% range, this would not seem practical to expect.
Am I over analyzing this, or does the almost zero return rate on bonds cause Firecalc to be overly optimistic for a 30 year time period?
Looking at bond rates over the past 86 years or so, it appears they have never been as low as they are now. For a good number of years, they have been above 8%. While we have no way of predicting where they will go over the next thirty or forty years, how concerned should we be that they are at historical lows now, with no reason to believe they will return to higher levels any time soon. Thinking about the sequence of returns, if the next five to ten years have below average returns, and 50% of my portfolio is in bonds, is Firecalc being overly optimistic?
Vanguard has a web page that shows the historical average of different asset allocations. They show 100% stocks returning 10%, while 50/50 returning 8.3%. Clearly with bonds being in the 1-3% range, this would not seem practical to expect.
Am I over analyzing this, or does the almost zero return rate on bonds cause Firecalc to be overly optimistic for a 30 year time period?